As we get set to enter the new year, it’s a good time for a recent history lesson that serves as a reminder with just over two months remaining before the madness begins in college basketball.
When the 2022-23 season began, only one of the eventual Final Four teams – San Diego State – appeared in the AP Top 25 poll. And the Aztecs, who went on to defeat Florida Atlantic in the Final Four before falling to UConn in the national championship game, weren’t even in the top 15 of that initial AP poll.
So, if your team is not ranked at the moment, I would not rule anything out in terms of the potential for the remainder of the year. Yes, non-conference play is wrapping up, and NCAA Tournament résumés certainly vary, but there are still 11 weeks left until Selection Sunday.
With that in mind, and this week’s FOX Primetime Hoops matchup featuring Ohio State and West Virginia at 7 p.m. ET Saturday in Cleveland (watch on FOX and the FOX Sports app), we figured it would be good timing to break down 10 teams that are currently unranked in the AP Top 25, but could rise on the national radar in the coming weeks and months.
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While the AP rankings are notable and appreciated, much like our FOX Sports Top 25, there’s a subjective nature to these things. With so much parity throughout college basketball this season, there’s not much of a difference between the teams ranked No. 20-25 and the teams that would be considered No. 35-40.
You can’t simply look at a team and judge them by whether they’re ranked or not. With that said, let’s get to this list, which fittingly begins with the Buckeyes.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2):
The analytics like the Buckeyes, who are 18th in Torvik, 27th in KenPom and 28th in the NET rankings with a nice balance on both ends of the floor. The reason why this team is not ranked is their non-conference strength of schedule, which sits at 270, coupled with the fact that their wins over Alabama and UCLA have been diminished in total value. Ohio State’s major blemish was a road loss to a lowly Penn State team in which the Buckeyes lost a 13-point lead with 10:30 remaining.
But here’s why this team has the potential to be ranked and could finish in the top-four of the Big Ten:
Chris Holtmann has one of the best bucket-getters in the conference, if not the country, with sophomore guard Bruce Thornton, who has taken off this season, averaging 17.4 points per game. He is tough for a defense to cover because of his 215-pound frame, posting 24-plus points in three games this year while scoring in double figures in every contest but one. With transfer Jamison Battle, who is in his fifth season and has provided experience, as well as senior forward Zed Key and sophomore guard Roddy Gayle Jr., the Buckeyes have balance with four players averaging double figures. Sophomore big man Felix Okpara has helped on the glass and shown more flashes offensively, while Baylor transfer Dale Bonner is an X-factor for Holtmann off the bench. This team is also ranked in the top 50 in the country in defense, allowing just 64 points per game.
Beyond the numbers, I’m going with a motivated coach and program. Last season, Holtmann missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in eight years. Ohio State did not make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five seasons. This team is too talented, with a sophomore class that is too dynamic, for the Buckeyes to not just reach the NCAA Tournament, but get a quality seed.
FOX Sports’ Mike Decourcy has the Buckeyes as a 4-seed in his latest 2024 NCAA Tournament projections.
2. Auburn Tigers (9-2):
I don’t understand how Bruce Pearl’s Tigers are still unranked, despite winning four straight games and owning blowout victories over Indiana, USC and Virginia Tech. The Tigers aren’t just in the top 25 in KenPom and Torvik – they’re in the top 10 of both of those metrics. Yes, this team has a road loss to Appalachian State, a game that you commend Pearl for scheduling, but in reality harms him more than it helps him. But I don’t think there should be any question that this Auburn team is one of the best 25 squads in America.
Averaging 83.1 points per game with an elite big man in Johni Broome and a five-star point guard in Aden Holloway, the Tigers have high-level talent. Perimeter shooting is still a slight question mark, but this Auburn team can really guard and the Tigers own a top-three scoring defense in the SEC. Seven players are averaging 7.5 points or more per game, a telling reflection of the kind of balance they possess.
3. New Mexico Lobos (11-1):
Richard Pitino’s Lobos have won 10 consecutive games with a top-30 defense. Leading scorer Jamal Mashburn Jr. has been battling through a thumb injury, but the senior is expected to return Friday for the Lobos’ game against Eastern New Mexico. What makes this team dangerous? Sophomore point guard Donovan Dent is as improved as any player in college basketball, going from 5.6 points and 2.3 assists per game last year to 16.8 points and 6.2 assists per game this season. Freshman forward JT Toppin has entered the program and made a major impact with 12.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. And with Jaelen House still a major contributor and Tru Washington as another freshman averaging in double figures, this team has several guys on the perimeter that can go out and score 20-plus on any given night. In what could be another four-bid year for the Mountain West Conference, look out for the Lobos.
4. Villanova Wildcats (9-4):
There have been 10 Big East Conference games thus far, with the home teams going 8-2. The two road wins are owned by Kyle Neptune’s Wildcats. While Villanova struggled against Big Five competition, finishing in last place in their Philadelphia area challenge, the Cats own a Battle 4 Atlantis championship and victories over North Carolina, Memphis, Creighton, UCLA, Texas Tech and Maryland. To go to Omaha and win their Big East opener is what has me catapulting this Villanova team into the mix on this list. The Wildcats showed serious toughness, overcoming a 14-point deficit in the second half to force overtime and pull off a shocker over the Bluejays, 68-66. And remember that they’re doing it without Justin Moore, who has been sidelined for three straight games with a knee injury.
The reason why this Villanova team can contend at the top of the Big East is Eric Dixon. He has truly turned into one of the best bigs in America, scoring a combined 66 points in the wins over the Tar Heels and Creighton. The defense is also very strong, ranking in the top 20 of both KenPom and Torvik. I think TJ Bamba and Mark Armstrong finding consistency is key for this team as the year goes on, along with Moore’s health, of course. There’s no shortage of options on the Main Line, and Maryland transfer Hakim Hart has been coming on as of late, with four straight games in double figures.
UCLA Bruins vs. Villanova Wildcats Highlights
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2):
The Huskers opened the year at 7-0, their best start to a season since 1992. Even though they swallowed their lumps against Creighton and Minnesota, I’m still bullish on this team and think they possess one of the best home-court advantages in the country at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Nebraska owns wins over Michigan State and, most recently, a road victory over Kansas State in which they held the Wildcats to just 46 points. We’re going to see just how legit Fred Hoiberg’s team is coming up with Indiana on Jan. 3, a road matchup at No. 23 Wisconsin on Jan. 6 and a home showdown with No. 1 Purdue on Jan. 9.
The strengths of this team, and why I’m higher on them than others, is they have four players averaging at least 13 points per game, led by Juwan Gary and Keisei Tominaga. Nine of their 13 scholarship players are in at least their fourth season of college basketball. They also lead the Big Ten in fewest fouls per game with 13.5, and they’re a good perimeter shooting team with 8.8 triples per contest, good for second in the conference. The Huskers have not made the NCAA Tournament in a decade. They are bubbly, but a team I’m monitoring because I believe they have the ingredients to be a Big Ten dark horse.
6. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2):
Next to Auburn, this is the next biggest discrepancy between what the AP voters see versus what the analytics say. The Cyclones are in the top 15 of both KenPom and Torvik. In fact, the NET rankings are even bigger in difference, as that metric has T.J. Otzelberger’s group at No. 5 in the country. Now, there is one very large thing to consider here: Iowa State’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks 343 out of 363 teams in the country, and the Cyclones lack a signature win with losses to Texas A&M and Virginia Tech.
The reason why you should believe in this team? Tamin Lipsey has been the alpha lead guard for the Cyclones with 73 assists and just 28 turnovers, while averaging 15.5 points per game and shooting over 50% from the floor. Keshon Gilbert has served as a nice backcourt sidekick to Lipsey out of the transfer portal, and freshman big man Milan Momcilovic has been one of the best rookies in the country, scoring in double figures in all but two games. Otzelberger has done a remarkable job of getting Iowa State to be a consistent NCAA Tournament program with a 51-29 record in his first 80 games. How do they get more respect? Winning in the Big 12 and backing up this start. Facing No. 12 Oklahoma on Jan. 6 on the road before hosting No. 3 Houston on Jan. 9 will provide initial opportunities to move the needle in the best league in America.
7. Dayton Flyers (9-2):
The Flyers have won six in a row, and while it will be difficult to get an at-large bid out of the Atlantic 10, this team has put itself in position if it keeps handling business in its conference to get a look for that slot come Selection Sunday. The only losses? At Northwestern and on a neutral floor against No. 3 Houston. There’s zero shame in that.
DaRon Holmes II is the best player in the A10, as the 6-foot-10 junior forward is averaging 16.8 points and 7.0 rebounds while posting 2.6 blocks per game. Anthony Grant made a great transfer portal pickup with 6-7 wing Nate Santos, while Koby Brea is shooting a whopping 56% from downtown and Kobe Elvis provides leadership in the backcourt. I love this team’s offensive capabilities. If they can evolve on the defensive end, there’s a world where they can win an NCAA Tournament game, if not two.
8. Utah Utes (9-2):
Experience. Wins. The Utes’ top-four scorers are all in their fourth year of college basketball or greater. Fifth-year, 7-foot center Branden Carlson is well on his way to major Pac-12 honors, averaging 16.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, while senior Gabe Madsen provides the spark from the perimeter, shooting 46% from downtown.
I thought the Utes got exposed a bit in their Charleston Classic loss to St. John’s, really struggling defensively and not being able to handle the pace of the game. But it looks as though that defeat forced head coach Craig Smith and his staff back into the lab to tinker some things. Utah has won six straight since then, including a road victory over Saint Mary’s and handing No. 14 BYU its only loss of the year. The Utes could be Arizona’s biggest threat in the Pac-12.
9. South Carolina Gamecocks (11-1):
How about Lamont Paris in Year 2 on the job in Columbia? The Gamecocks, a projected 9-seed in Mike Decourcy’s latest bracket forecast, own a neutral win over a Virginia Tech team that is on the bubble and a Grand Canyon team that is receiving votes in the AP Top 25. Their only loss? A five-point defeat to a top-20 Clemson team.
After the GG Jackson show rolled in last year, providing nice publicity but eventually failing, the Gamecocks now have a cohesive team. Senior guard Meechie Johnson is playing the best basketball of his career, averaging over 18 points per game, while fifth-year post man BJ Mack is holding things down in the frontcourt. The Gamecocks aren’t playing fast, but they’re taking great care of the basketball with only 9.6 turnovers per game. They sit at 333rd in the country in tempo, a figure that is certainly glaring, but works when you consider the fact they’re averaging nine made 3s per game. Can South Carolina keep up in the difficult SEC? We shall see.
10. Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1):
The Wolf Pack were the big winners of Christmas week, beating Temple, TCU and Georgia Tech en route to the Diamond Head Classic championship. To take down the Horned Frogs and only turn the ball over eight times while scoring 88 points is extremely impressive against Jamie Dixon’s defense. We’ve seen Pac-12 transfers flourish in the Mountain West before, most notably Matt Bradley at San Diego State last year. This time, fifth-year senior Jarod Lucas is the example. The 6-4 guard has posted three consecutive 20-plus point performances, combining for 67 points in the three victories while shooting 51% from the floor in the process. But he’s not the only guard who’s shining at the moment for the Wolf Pack. Kenan Blackshear was outstanding in the title game win over Georgia Tech in Honolulu, going for a career-high 30 points. The 6-6 guard shot 11-for-14 from the floor, and what’s most impressive is he only took one 3-pointer in that performance. The way he can attack the lane is special.
Nevada is 3-0 against Power-5 opponents this season, with all three of those victories coming away from home. That’s why the Wolf Pack are on the right side of the bubble in our current FOX Sports bracket forecast.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
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