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Michael Rothstein, ESPN Staff Writer
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons will have to do something they’ll likely loathe this weekend.
To keep their postseason hopes alive, they are going to have to root for their archrival, the New Orleans Saints to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
If the Buccaneers win, they win the NFC South. If the Bucs lose, then the message head coach Arthur Smith has been delivering to his team over the last few weeks remains intact.
They still have a chance to make the postseason and compete for a division title.
“Didn’t think we would ever be saying that but we’re rooting for the Saints,” quarterback Taylor Heinicke said. “But again, that doesn’t matter unless we’re out there winning in Chicago.”
The Falcons know two things: They need to win, starting Sunday against the Bears in Chicago, and they need help.
This all could have been a lot easier for Atlanta had it held on to beat Tampa Bay earlier this month or not lost the following week at Carolina — a game which felt like the nadir in a season full of inconsistent play.
The reality of the NFC South is that a winning record for the division leader is a luxury, not necessity. Atlanta and New Orleans are tied at 7-8, a game back of the Buccaneers in the division race and in a jumble of NFC teams ranging from 8-7 to 7-8 vying for postseason spots.
“Everybody’s aware. I think the most important thing I can do is my job to the best of my ability and find a way to beat the Bears,” Smith said. “That’s all that matters. Things are out of our hands.
“Been around this league for long enough to know what’s supposed to happen usually doesn’t.”
With that in mind, and with the help of ESPN Stats & Information, here’s how Atlanta can reach the postseason.
The NFC South
The easiest path to the NFC South is simple. If the Falcons beat the Saints in the regular-season finale and Tampa Bay loses out — to the Saints in Week 17 and Carolina Panthers in Week 18 — Atlanta wins the division title and hosts a wild-card playoff game as the No. 4 seed, likely against the Philadelphia Eagles or Dallas Cowboys.
If Tampa were to split and Atlanta wins out, both teams would be 9-8 with identical head-to-head and division records. The Buccaneers would win the division because of the common opponents tiebreaker.
If the Buccaneers lose out, there’s a bit of variance. If Atlanta goes 2-0, it wins the division outright. If the Falcons beat the Saints but lose to the Chicago Bears, it becomes a three-way tie at 8-9. Atlanta would win the division because of a head-to-head tiebreaker where the Falcons would be 3-1 combined against New Orleans and Tampa Bay. If the Falcons beat the Bears and lose to the Saints — again, assuming Tampa loses out — New Orleans would win the division at 9-8.
The wild card
The good news? Atlanta still has a shot at a wild-card berth even if they don’t win their division. The bad news? A lot needs to happen for that scenario to occur.
Trying to break down tiebreakers between all the teams at 8-7 (the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Bucs), 7-8 (the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Saints and Falcons) and 6-9 (Bears) is far too complicated.
The bad news for the Falcons is this: At 4-6 in the conference and a best-case 6-6 mark, the Falcons can potentially do no better than tie Los Angeles, Seattle and Minnesota in NFC record. That does not help with tiebreakers and that’s assuming the Rams, Seahawks and Vikings lose out.
If Atlanta ends up with a two-team tiebreaker, it would hold the edge over Green Bay and New Orleans and lose to Minnesota (head-to-head loss), Los Angeles (conference record) and Seattle (the Seahawks are 5-0 and, worst-case, 5-1 in common games, and Atlanta is 1-5 in those games).
Should Atlanta win out and get to 9-8, the Falcons would have essentially knocked out New Orleans and since the Packers and Vikings play this weekend, one of those teams will get to nine losses.
If Green Bay beats Minnesota, the Falcons make the playoffs at 9-8 if the Rams or Seahawks lose out. If Minnesota beats Green Bay, Atlanta is in at 9-8 if the Rams or Seahawks lose out and Minnesota loses to Detroit in Week 18.
Seattle closes its season at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers and on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. The Rams close on the road against the New York Giants in Week 17 and then the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18.
So the scoreboard watching for Atlanta, provided it takes care of its own games first, will be spread out over the final two weeks.
And don’t even ask about what happens if any of these games end up in a tie.
