Having taken six in a row, the Baltimore Ravens (13-3) will play the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7). Despite that, the Steelers are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). The over/under for this one is set at 37.5 points.
The Ravens completely dismantled the Miami Dolphins 56-19 last weekend, while the Steelers took down the Seattle Seahawks 30-23 in their Week 17 contest.
Baltimore is solidified as the top seed in the AFC and Pittsburgh needs a win here to make the postseason.
Will the Ravens rest their starters since they have everything wrapped up, or will they go all out to spoil their rivals’ season?
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Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Steelers and Ravens — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill.
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | -3.5 | -105 | -115 | 37.5 | -102 | -118 |
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction & Pick
- Pick ATS: Baltimore (+3.5)
- Pick OU: Over (37.5)
- Prediction: Baltimore 30 – Pittsburgh 12
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill
There are lots of moving parts here, but the Ravens were in this same position in 2019.
They clinched a postseason bye, and were playing the Steelers in the final week of the regular season. They rested their starters, and ended up losing their first playoff game a few weeks later.
Does Harbaugh really want a 3-week layoff for all of his key players?
I think the Ravens will play their guys a bit, and getting 4 at home is too good to pass up despite the lack of motivation.
PICK: Ravens (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
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How to Watch Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
- Game Date: Saturday, January 6, 2024
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
- Location: Baltimore, Maryland
- TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN
Steelers vs. Ravens Recent Matchups
- Over their last five meetings, Baltimore has totaled three wins against Pittsburgh.
- Over their last five head-to-head contests, Baltimore has racked up 93 points, while Pittsburgh has tallied 80.
Pittsburgh Betting Info
- Pittsburgh has nine wins in 16 games versus the spread this year.
- The Steelers have not covered the spread when favored by 3.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
- Pittsburgh games this year have hit the over on six of 16 set point totals (37.5%).
- The Steelers have put together a 3-3 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 50% of those games).
- Pittsburgh has played as a moneyline favorite of -180 or shorter in just two games this season, and it lost both.
- The Steelers have a 64.3% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
Steelers Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 189.3 (3,029) | 25 |
| Rush yards | 115.9 (1,855) | 12 |
| Points scored | 17.9 (287) | 27 |
| Pass yards against | 233.9 (3,742) | 22 |
| Rush yards against | 115.6 (1,850) | 18 |
| Points allowed | 19.6 (314) | 7 |
Pittsburgh’s Key Players
Offense
- Najee Harris’ rushing output this season includes 923 yards and seven TDs. He’s averaging 57.7 yards per game and 4.0 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
- George Pickens has caught 63 passes on 106 targets for 1,140 total yards and five touchdowns. He is averaging 3.9 catches and 71.3 yards per game through 16 games.
- Jaylen Warren’s output on the ground this season includes 751 yards and four TDs. He’s averaging 46.9 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt (second in the NFL).
- Warren has 56 receptions on 69 targets for 353 yards, though he has yet to score a touchdown in the passing game.
- Kenny Pickett has 2,070 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He has completed 62.0% of his attempts, averaging 172.5 yards per game and 6.4 per attempt.
- He has tacked on 54 rushing yards (4.5 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
Defense
- On defense for the Steelers, T.J. Watt has put up 60 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 17 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
- Elandon Roberts has 2.5 sacks as well as 10.0 TFL and 100 tackles.
- This season, Alex Highsmith has recorded 7.0 sacks (second on the Steelers) to go with his 8.0 TFL, 54 tackles, and two interceptions.
- Larry Ogunjobi has 3.0 sacks (third on the Steelers) as well as 3.0 TFL and 42 tackles on the season.
Baltimore Betting Info
- Baltimore is 11-5-0 against the spread this year.
- This season, the Ravens have won ATS in each of their two games as an underdog of 3.5 points or more.
- Games involving Baltimore have hit the over on eight occasions this year.
- The Ravens have won both games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
- Baltimore has played as an underdog of +150 or more once this season and won that game.
- The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 40.0% chance of a victory for the Ravens.
Ravens Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 219.8 (3,517) | 21 |
| Rush yards | 159.7 (2,555) | 1 |
| Points scored | 29.6 (473) | 2 |
| Pass yards against | 195.6 (3,129) | 6 |
| Rush yards against | 106.6 (1,705) | 13 |
| Points allowed | 16.4 (263) | 1 |
Baltimore’s Key Players
Offense
- Lamar Jackson is averaging 8.0 passing yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and 229.9 yards per game this year, completing 67.2% of his passes on the way to 3,678 total yards, 24 touchdowns (10th in the NFL) and seven interceptions through 16 games.
- Jackson has also rushed for five touchdowns and 821 yards (first on the Ravens).
- Gus Edwards has scored 13 rushing touchdowns, while totaling 762 rushing yards (4.1 per attempt and 47.6 per game).
- Edwards also has 12 catches for 180 yards (seventh on the Ravens). He has been targeted 13 times and averages 11.3 yards per game.
- Zay Flowers has totaled 858 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 77 receptions, while being targeted 108 times this season.
- Justice Hill averages 25.8 rushing yards per game over 15 games (387 total yards), with three rushing touchdowns.
- Hill has also caught 25 passes for 180 yards (seventh on the Ravens), with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 29 times and averages 12.0 yards per game.
Defense
- Roquan Smith has recorded 1.5 sacks to go with 5.0 TFL, 158 tackles, and one interception over 16 games in 2023.
- Patrick Queen has 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Ravens) to go with 9.0 TFL, 125 tackles, and one interception.
- Justin Madubuike has 13.0 sacks (first on the Ravens) in addition to his 12.0 TFL and 54 tackles.
- Kyle Hamilton has totaled 3.0 sacks as well as 10.0 TFL, 81 tackles, and four interceptions.
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