Michigan beating Alabama was the cherry on top of another winning weekend here at FOX Sports. And please don’t start with the “you got lucky” nonsense. The Wolverines didn’t play their “A” game and were still the better team.
Make that a 19-4-4 run since Thanksgiving.
I’ve only got three bets for the next few days, one college and two NFL. Why force when there aren’t many edges? This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-1.5, O/U 30.5)
This battle of backup quarterbacks should be a doozy.
Yawn.
Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian don’t exactly ooze offensive confidence, and when you whisk in their inability to make big plays with 20-mile-per-hour winds in a potential Nor’easter, you have the perfect recipe for a rock fight.
The total has already dropped a handful of points, but I still don’t think it’s low enough. Even if heavy snow avoids Gillette Stadium, the wind is way, way more important, and that doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. Also, people will likely see the elements on TV and drive the number even lower.
How about 16-10 either way?
PICK: Under 30.5 points scored by both teams combined
Will Bill Belichick coach his last game for the Patriots?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, O/U 37.5) @ Carolina Panthers
This one won’t be popular, but sometimes you’ve gotta do what you’ve gotta do in the final week of the NFL regular season.
I’m well aware the Panthers are a two-win football team, but the “must-win tax” on the Buccaneers is too much to pay right now. Remember, Tampa Bay was a 3.5-point home favorite a month ago against Carolina. Now the game shifts to Charlotte, and the Bucs are a bigger favorite?
Not so fast.
Sure, the Bucs have played better down the stretch, but they’re still a .500 team that’s laid plenty of eggs this season. Expect Carolina to play loose with nothing to lose, while playoff pressure might burst Tampa Bay’s pipes.
Plug your nose and take the points.
PICK: Panthers (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)
Can Michigan’s defense stop Washington’s passing game to win the National Championship?
Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, O/U 56) vs. Washington Huskies
This is the first time I’ve laid more than -130 all season.
Bear with me.
The Las Vegas lookahead line was Michigan -7 at the SuperBook, but thanks to the Huskies’ outright win over Texas and Michael Penix Jr.’s 430-yard laser show, the price has come down. There’s also a faction of people who believe Michigan was “lucky” to beat Alabama, which is silly. The Wolverines didn’t play anywhere near their “A” game and still held the Tide under 300 yards of offense for the first time this season.
Penix is dangerous — as are his two surefire NFL wide receivers — but defense tends to win championships. Michigan’s defensive line rivals one you usually see in the SEC, and as I’ve said all season long on the “Bear Bets Podcast,” this is the best defense in the country from top to bottom. Penix will have to play a game for the ages, and I’m willing to bet against that.
I truly believe Michigan should be closer to a 5.5 or 6-point favorite, which correlates to a -250 price or higher on the moneyline. Also, the betting public is salivating over Washington moneyline here, and there’s plenty of futures liability on the Huskies, too, which distorts the true price.
Just win, Blue.
PICK: Michigan (-190 moneyline) to win outright
2023 Record: (46-33-5, +9.5)
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