‘Bear Bets’: The Group Chat’s favorite NFL Week 18 bets, plus Cowboys-Commanders

Another exciting weekend of NFL football is upon us, meaning it’s another opportunity to throw some money down on the big games. 

And if you are betting on the games, you’ll want to listen to The Group Chat segment of the latest episode of “Bear Bets,” as the fellas break down this week’s biggest matchups.

FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Geoff Schwartz, along with Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill, had a lot of thoughts on the Week 18 slate and some futures bets to make.

Let’s get right to their bets.

The Cowboys can win the NFC East if they beat the Commanders. Do you trust them to cover the 13-point spread on the road, though? 

The Bear: Don’t like Cowboys -13

“I know you blew them out already once this year, but this feels like a big number and everyone can have their opinions on Ron Rivera, but this will be his final NFL game as a head coach. I can’t imagine he’s gonna get another head coaching job, [so the Commanders might be more motivated].”

Hill: Lean Commanders +13

“You take the points here just because Dallas is not the same team on the road. They’re not the same team outdoors, on grass. Again, you just compare the lines. These teams played on Thanksgiving. That game was relatively competitive in like the third quarter, when Dallas pulled away. And that line was around 13, 14 points.”

Schwartz: Likely staying away, but would lean toward Cowboys -13

“In Washington’s last four games, they lost by 32 to the Dolphins, they lost to the Rams by eight, they lost to the Jets, and they lost to the 49ers by 17. I mean, they’re kind of just like dead.”

Staying in the NFC East, the Eagles can win the division if they beat the Giants and the Commanders upset the Cowboys. Do you like Philadelphia (-5.5) in the road spot?

Hill: Giants +5.5

“What are the Eagles playing for here? If you see the Cowboys have the lead, does Philly say, ‘Hey, maybe we’re gonna rest some guys, maybe we’ll get our guys healthy. We’ll treat this as like a mini bye.’?

Sammy P: Lean Giants +5.5

“It’s a lot different with Tyrod Taylor instead of Tommy DeVito, we all understand that. And something’s clearly up with this Eagles team. I mean there’s something else to be said about these teams that have been perennially good at putting away teams like this, but they let the Giants hang around on Christmas.”

Bills vs. Dolphins AFC East showdown: Best bets, picks and predictions

The biggest game of the weekend is Bills–Dolphins, where the AFC East will be on the line in Miami. Buffalo could actually miss the playoffs if it loses, depending on what happens in other games. Do you like the Bills (-3) on the road?

Sammy P: Under 48.5, not interested in Bills -3

“Jaylen Waddle’s not playing in this game. Look at how Buffalo’s defense is played — their defense has gotten them back to respectability. Miami, you know, Vic Fangio has done a decent job over the course of the season. This is also a tight game. Both of these teams are probably not going to take a lot of shots down the field, given the injuries on the offensive line and the injuries on offense. This could be like a 23-20 game.”

Schwartz: Taking Dolphins +3 to middle Bills futures

“The Bills are the variance you don’t know. Are you getting good Buffalo? Bad Buffalo? Hero ball Josh Allen? Non-hero ball Josh Allen?”

Elsewhere, the Steelers need to beat the Ravens on the road in order to have a chance to make the playoffs. Baltimore won’t have Lamar Jackson though, so are you inclined to take Pittsburgh (+3.5)?

Sammy P: Lean Ravens +3.5

“Let’s say Baltimore is fully healthy, and Lamar is going to play, my number is like 12.5, 13 because I got Baltimore 10 points better on a neutral. … I’m not trying to compare Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. But the offensive schematics don’t really change. You know what I mean? It’s not like you’re going from Lamar to Joe Flacco or Lamar to Trent Dilfer. You’re going from a mobile guy to a mobile guy and I think that’s easier when the backup comes in.”

What are your other favorite plays in the final week of the regular season?

Sammy P: Under 44 in Bears–Packers

“It’s January and Green Bay at Lambeau — like this is not 75 and sunny at South Beach. It’s hard to throw the football in that weather. I covered a couple games on the sideline there. Assuming the weather is what I believe it’s going to be this weekend, it’s not going to be ideal to throw the football.”

Sammy P: Under 30.5 in Patriots–Jets

“It’s Trevor Siemian and Bailey Zappe in a blizzard. I don’t know how much more you need to hear. I’ve given some rocket science takes, but this one is about as square as it gets.”

The Bear: Cardinals +3 vs. Seahawks

“I don’t think they care about the draft pick. They’re gonna have two picks in the top 20. … Seattle’s a team I really haven’t been able to figure out for most of the season. I thought they would’ve shown up last week and that was like the best offensive game that the Steelers played in forever.”

Hill: Titans if they drop to +6 vs. Jaguars after Trevor Lawrence gets cleared to play

“Remember, the Jags ended the Titans’ season last year, so maybe the Titans want a little payback. We saw Mike Vrabel in the press conference the other day get fired up like, ‘Hey, nobody likes to lose. I hate losing.’ … The Titans aren’t that far from the Jags in my opinion.”

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