NFL draft scenarios at stake in Week 18: Projections for Patriots, Giants, Jets and non-playoff teams

Jordan Raanan, ESPN Staff WriterJan 6, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
Close

It’s Week 18 of the NFL regular season, with plenty of playoff implications still at stake. For the rest of the league, it’s about draft scenarios.

The Chicago Bears are already locked into the top of the 2024 NFL draft. That comes courtesy of the Carolina Panthers (2-14) being assured of finishing with the league’s worst record. The Bears received that selection as part of a package from an offseason trade that gave the Panthers the first pick of the 2023 draft.

So the race for No. 2 and beyond is on, with one more game for each team to play. By Sunday evening, it will be clear where everyone stands.

Here’s the Week 18 draft scenario breakdown, with help from ESPN Analytics:

Current draft position: 2
Second-most likely draft position: 3
Chances to pick No. 2: 76%
Chances to pick No. 3: 18%
Chances to pick No. 4: 5%
Chances to pick No. 5: 1%

What they need to happen: If the Commanders lose to the Dallas Cowboys and the Patriots beat the Jets, they’ll get the coveted second pick in a draft that most expect to start with quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. If they lose to the Cowboys and the Patriots lose to the Jets, it will come down to a razor-thin strength of schedule. The Commanders currently own the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Pats by the slimmest of margins. The Atlanta Falcons beating the New Orleans Saints would hurt the Commanders since they beat Atlanta in Week 6 and the Saints beat the Patriots in Week 5.

Note: Having the lower strength of schedule (the first tiebreaker for draft picks) is beneficial when it comes to the top of the draft.

Current draft position: 3
Second-most likely draft position: 4
Chances to pick No. 2: 18%
Chances to pick No. 3: 42%
Chances to pick No. 4: 29%
Chances to pick No. 5: 11%

What they need to happen: The Patriots need to lose to the Jets, while the Commanders beat the Cowboys. Or just lose to the Jets and get some help from the Falcons. This is the inverse of what the Commanders need, for the same reason — the strength of schedule tiebreaker.

Current draft position: 4
Second-most likely draft position: 3
Chances to pick No. 2: 5%
Chances to pick No. 3: 33%
Chances to pick No. 4: 26%
Chances to pick No. 5: 8%
Chances to pick No. 6: 17%
Chances to pick No. 7: 11%

What they need to happen: The Cardinals have a better chance to move up to the third pick than remain at No. 4. That’s because all they need is to lose to the Seattle Seahawks and have either the Patriots or Commanders win. Those looking for a higher draft pick will be watching the Patriots-Jets game closely — New England is the favorite. The Cardinals don’t want any of the five-win teams (Giants, Titans or Chargers) to lose. Arizona’s strength of schedule is too strong to win a tiebreaker over pretty much anyone in top 10 consideration.

Current draft position: 5
Second-most likely draft position: 4
Chances to pick No. 2: 1%
Chances to pick No. 3: 7%
Chances to pick No. 4: 36%
Chances to pick No. 5: 43%
Chances to pick No. 6: 7%
Chances to pick No. 7: 6%
Chances to pick No. 8: 1%

What they need to happen: The Giants need to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles and have any of the four-win teams (Commanders, Patriots or Cardinals) to emerge victorious. That should be enough for New York to jump the respective team(s) that enter the five-win group. An upset over the Eagles could drop them to No. 8. The Eagles need the win (and a Cowboys loss) to clinch the division, so both teams have something to play for. The Giants also don’t want the Commanders, Patriots and Cardinals to lose. That would make it impossible to move up.

Current draft position: 6
Second-most likely draft position: 8
Chances to pick No. 4: 2%
Chances to pick No. 5: 17%
Chances to pick No. 6: 38%
Chances to pick No. 7: 21%
Chances to pick No. 8: 23%

What they need to happen: The Chargers need to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are resting several starters after locking up the AFC West last week. That will get them into the top five. Upsetting Kansas City would likely drop them to pick No. 8. They also need the Giants and/or Cardinals to win. The Giants host the Eagles and the Cardinals host the Seahawks. Seattle and Philadelphia are playing for playoff seeding.

Current draft position: 7
Second-most likely draft position: 6
Chances to pick No. 4: 3%
Chances to pick No. 5: 20%
Chances to pick No. 6: 29%
Chances to pick No. 7: 36%
Chances to pick No. 8: 12%

What they need to happen: The Titans need to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars — who are playing to win the AFC South — and for the Giants, Chargers and/or Cardinals to win. It’s possible for them to end up in the top five. A win and a Jets loss to the Patriots, however, puts the Titans at their floor with the No. 8 pick.

Current draft position: 8
Second-most likely draft position: 7
Chances to pick No. 5: 1%
Chances to pick No. 6: 9%
Chances to pick No. 7: 26%
Chances to pick No. 8: 23%
Chances to pick No. 9: 15%
Chances to pick No. 10: 19%
Chances to pick No. 11: 7%
Chances to pick No. 12: 1%

What they need to happen: The Jets need to lose to the Pats — who will also be trying to improve their draft stock with a loss — and have any of the five-win teams (Giants, Chargers and Titans) to post an unexpected victory. They would then jump that team. A win could potentially send Bill Belichick out with a loss, but could drop the Jets out of the top 10.