SAN DIEGO — The Winter Meetings are well under way in San Diego. Jacob deGrom‘s stunning five-year pact with Texas was just an appetizer for the free-agency frenzy that has begun to unfold, with Trea Turner‘s 11-year, $300M pact with the Phillies and Justin Verlander‘s $86M deal over just two years with the Mets headlining the biggest contracts thus far.
But having all 30 front offices under one hotel roof is also a tremendous opportunity for the other biggest element of any offseason: wheelin’ and dealin’. As we eagerly await the destinations of the top free agents to materialize, let’s turn our attention to the current state of the trade market. Will some of the biggest names we see move come via trade? Which teams are in the strongest position to deal from positions of depth? And which teams are more likely to fill a positional need via a cleverly constructed trade rather than spend the big bucks in free agency?
Let’s get this out of the way: This list does not include Shohei Ohtani. I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical when Angels GM Perry Minasian began this offseason by declaring his intention to keep the two-way sensation despite his looming free agency next winter. There are countless examples of early offseason rhetoric ultimately being proven farcical. In this case, however, actions speak louder than words, and the moves Minasian has made thus far — signing left-hander Tyler Anderson and reliever Carlos Estévez; trading for Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe — suggest that the Angels are indeed attempting to build a winning roster around Ohtani and Mike Trout for 2023, even if Ohtani might not be sticking around for the long haul. Should that team underwhelm in the first half, a trade next July feels far more realistic. For now, though, the living legend appears to be staying put.
Interestingly, there have already been several players with one year left on their contracts dealt this offseason, including the aforementioned Angels additions Renfroe and Urshela. Ji-Man Choi, Teoscar Hernández, Kolten Wong, and Jesse Winker have also been traded, reminding us that many teams feel they can get more in return now than if they wait until July when the player is strictly a 2-3 month “rental” for the acquiring team.
All that said, based on the buzz at the Winter Meetings and various reports over the past few weeks, these are the players that I think are most likely to be swapped this winter:
Reynolds had been subject to trade rumors for several years now, but last week he reportedly requested a trade out of Pittsburgh. The Pirates may still be a long way from contention, but I don’t get the sense that they have the appetite to ship out arguably their best player for a bunch of teenagers who might not arrive in Pittsburgh until 2026. It’s possible some team puts together an overwhelming offer that features young players that can help the Pirates right away and are under team control for longer than Reynolds’ three remaining years, but that’s the only scenario I see them caving to Reynolds request — at least for now.
2. Sean Murphy
If not Reynolds, the safest bet for the biggest name moved is Murphy, whom Oakland is reportedly close to dealing. We’re talking about a top-10, arguably top-5 catcher under contract through the 2025 season. That’s an awfully valuable player! While the Pirates have publicly denied a willingness to move Reynolds despite his reported request, all indications out of Oakland suggest that trading Murphy for one more enormous prospect haul will indeed be the final exodus of the dramatic rebuild the club has undertaken over the past 18 months. Murphy’s market should clarify once Willson Contreras signs, or once another interested team makes a deal for …
3. A Blue Jays catcher
Most likely: Danny Jansen
Also plausible: Gabriel Moreno, Alejandro Kirk
Unless Toronto really believes Moreno is ready to be the franchise catcher, I strongly doubt they’d be willing to move such a crucial part of their lineup in Kirk. At the same time, it also seems unlikely they’d want to part with Moreno this early into such a promising career. Coming off a strong 2022 at the plate (141 OPS+ in 248 PA) and with the fewest years remaining on his contract, Jansen is the one to watch and is an excellent alternative for a team that misses out on Murphy or Contreras.
4. A Yankees infielder
Most likely: Gleyber Torres
If they attach a prospect and/or eat some money: Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
A lot continues to hinge on Judge, but the Yankees’ infield will be a point of focus for the remainder of the offseason regardless of the MVP’s decision. We know the Yankees would like to give the keys to Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe at some point over the next year, but just how soon that happens may determine how likely they are to flip Torres this winter or how aggressive they’ll be in trying to move off Donaldson or IKF after their respective disappointing 2022 campaigns. DJ LeMahieu’s health status entering spring training may also inform such a decision.
5. A Mariners starting pitcher
Most likely: Chris Flexen
Also plausible: Marco Gonzales
With four of five rotation spots locked up, one of Flexen or Gonzales — each plenty capable of starting games for a contending team — looks like the odd man out and likely to be flipped. Flexen has less track record but is also coming off a much better season than Gonzales and is only under contract for one more year. Notorious trader Jerry Dipoto has already swung two significant deals this winter without including Flexen, but if pursuits of other offensive upgrades in free agency fall short, don’t be surprised to see the 28-year-old right-hander flipped in yet another Dipoto deal sometime before Opening Day 2023.
6. A Diamondbacks outfielder
Candidates: Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho
With the arrival of top prospect Corbin Carroll, the outfield in Arizona is getting awfully crowded and the team is in great position to utilize that newfound depth to improve other parts of the roster. Thomas also had considerable prospect value by the time he debuted, but he’s also had the least success in the big leagues thus far. Varsho, a freak athlete and good hitter capable of playing catcher and a damn good center field, is the best player of the bunch right now. But his trade value may be impacted by how much he’s actually willing to catch moving forward — he barely caught at all after May. Interested teams may not be willing to offer as big of a package for Varsho if they’re strictly acquiring an outfielder.
7. A Marlins pitcher
Most likely: Pablo López
Also plausible: Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, Jesús Luzardo
Lopez was nearly dealt to the Yankees at this year’s deadline and still appears to be the arm most likely to go, as Miami continues a desperate search to add legitimate impact and consistency to the lineup. Lopez is the most proven and thus the safest to draw widespread interest across the league, but the younger trio of Rogers, Cabrera and Luzardo might also yield significant returns in a trade from the right team that believes it can maximize any of their impressive raw arsenals.
8. A Rays hitter
Most likely: Taylor Walls, Vidal Bruján, Jonathan Aranda
Also plausible: One of their countless prospects
Alongside Seattle and San Diego, Tampa Bay can essentially always be counted on to thoroughly explore the trade market. The Zach Eflin signing was a reminder that the Rays are capable of wading into the free-agency waters, but bolstering the roster via trade has been a much more common strategy for Erik Neander’s front office. Even after trading Choi and making several minor deals ahead of the 40-man protection deadline, their roster is still jam-packed with position players — so much so that there simply isn’t enough playing time to go around. If Eflin is their only free-agent splash, it would make a ton of sense for them to dip into their overflowing collection of big league-ready prospects to deal for further pitching depth or a more concentrated addition on offense.
9. A(nother) Twins hitter
Most likely: Max Kepler
Longshot but maybe: Luis Arraez
While Urshela was traded for a 19-year-old pitching prospect, Kepler, who is under contract for 2023 with a $10 million team option for 2024 — could be used in a deal to bolster the big-league pitching staff. The Twins would be selling somewhat low, considering Kepler’s underwhelming last few seasons, albeit ones that were also derailed by injury. But he’ll only be 30 in 2023, and it’s not hard to imagine another team thinking it can get him closer to his 2019 form when he slugged 36 homers and posted an .855 OPS while playing strong outfield defense.
Arraez is a much more intriguing candidate, and reports suggest that the Twins are at least considering it — but this would only make sense if they were to land a near-ace level talent, of which there aren’t that many available on the market.
10. A Cardinals hitter
Most likely: Nolan Gorman
Also plausible: Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson
Perhaps, Gorman or another one of these outfielders headlines a deal for Murphy or Jansen. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has communicated that adding a catcher is the team’s No. 1 priority following Yadier Molina’s retirement. The Cardinals are still clear NL Central favorites as of today, but a jump into the tier of legitimate World Series contenders will require at least one big addition this winter. They still have the ammo to trade for such an addition, especially if they are willing to dip into their farm system, as well.
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Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He’s a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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