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Nick Wagoner, ESPN Staff Writer
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — No strangers to deep postseason runs, the San Francisco 49ers know better than anyone the value of the NFC’s top seed.
The Niners have been to three of the past four NFC Championship Games. The only time they advanced to the Super Bowl was 2019, which was also the only time the team had the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
It’s also why they never shied away from making the NFC’s No. 1 spot their top priority of the regular season. Despite a few bumps, the Niners accomplished that goal in Week 17, rested most of their starters in Week 18 and finished 12-5.
Now, they go through this week’s bye uncertain of their divisional round opponent — it will be either the No. 4-seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers, No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles, No. 6 Los Angeles Rams or No. 7 Green Bay Packers — but focused on getting healthy and cleaning up any lingering issues.
“This is the first week where we’re able to truly just look at what has hurt us in the past,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “What can we truly get better at this week and focus on?”
The Niners showed few flaws during the season, often looking the part of a juggernaut destined to land in the Super Bowl. However, there are few things that are cause for concern as the postseason nears.
Coming from behind
The 49ers jumped out to big leads in most of their 12 wins, rarely being forced into a comeback position in close and late situations. But when they have been in tense late-game spots, they’ve come up short.
In 17 games, the Niners trailed at halftime in three of them. They lost all three. They were behind entering the fourth quarter in four games. They lost all four of those, too. San Francisco was 12-2 in games it was either tied or leading at halftime, and one of those was a meaningless Week 18 game in which the Niners and Rams were resting starters.
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy hasn’t played particularly well in those situations, either. In the four games the Niners trailed through three quarters, Purdy was 24-of-44 for 353 yards in the fourth quarter with one touchdown pass and three interceptions, registering a 30.5 QBR.
It’s a small sample, but these Niners have struggled. To advance deep in the postseason, they’ll have to be able to win in different ways.
“That’s why we got to be so locked into these practices,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “Just how we clean things up and make sure no matter what happens, no matter who comes here in a couple weeks. And no matter what type of game it is, whether it’s a shootout, a game of field goals, whatever it is, that we’re up for whatever it takes to win it.”
An unproven kicker
The Niners’ record in close, late situations would be better were it not for rookie kicker Jake Moody‘s missed 41-yard field goal against the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 15. It was Moody’s first attempt at a game-winner, but he pushed it right and the Niners suffered their first loss of the season. Moody didn’t get another opportunity to attempt a game-tying field goal late in a game or a game-winner.
Moody missed a 40-yard field goal in the following week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings but then went nine straight games without missing a kick. That streak came crashing down in Week 18, when Moody missed a 38-yard field goal and his first extra point of the season in a game the Niners lost by one. Those were Moody’s only misses on any kicks inside 40 yards this season.
While those misses understandably created angst among Niners fans, the team plans to roll with its third-round rookie in the postseason with no plans to bring in veteran insurance.
“He’s been great all year,” Shanahan said. “He was rough on those two [misses], but no, we’re good with Jake.”
Indeed, Moody was mostly solid all season on limited attempts. He finished 21-of-25 on field goals for an 84% conversion rate, which ranked 19th among kickers with at least 20 attempts, and led the league in extra points attempted (61) and made (60).
Much like coming from behind, it’s not that Moody is incapable of coming through at winning time so much as uncertainty based on a lack of opportunities.
Injury issues
Earning the top seed with a week left in the regular season was good news for the Niners on many fronts but especially for an ever-expanding list of injuries. They took advantage by resting all of their injured players in Week 18 and pulling most of their starters no later than halftime.
That created an opportunity for younger players to get much-needed game reps.
“We are going to need everybody with this playoff stretch,” cornerback Deommodore Lenoir said. “I just felt like it was a good thing for everybody, for the guys that have never played before to really get an opportunity. You never know when your time is called.”
San Francisco is confident that running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), safeties Tashaun Gipson Sr. (quad) and Ji’Ayir Brown (knee), and cornerback Ambry Thomas (hand) will be rested and ready for the first playoff game.
That also applies to tight end George Kittle (back spasms) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles tendinitis), who were held out against the Rams for precautionary reasons.
Still, there’s one key player whose status remains more uncertain: defensive tackle Arik Armstead. Armstead missed the final five games with foot and knee injuries, with the foot the larger area of concern.
Shanahan said that Armstead will practice Thursday, and again on Friday if all goes well. Shanahan also indicated that Armstead could have played in the season finale against the Rams if needed. His presence is integral for the Niners’ defense, particularly against the run. With Armstead on the field this season, they gave up just 3.7 yards per carry. When Armstead is not on the field, that number jumps to 4.5.
The Niners and Armstead are optimistic he will be available for the playoff push. If he is, the question becomes how effective he will be and how long he’ll hold up. The answer to those questions will go a long way in determining San Francisco’s playoff fate.
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