Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers divisional round: Prediction, odds, picks

The Detroit Lions are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -6.5), in their NFC Playoffs matchup versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total for this one is set at 48.5 points.

The Lions have had a magical season thus far, winning their first division title since 1993 and their first playoff win since 1991 with their 24-23 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round. 

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have surprised many as well, winning six of their last seven games, capturing the NFC South and dispatching the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in Super Wild Card Weekend. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Buccaneers and Lions — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Lions vs. Buccaneers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Detroit (-6.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (48.5) 
• Prediction: Detroit 26 – Tampa Bay 19 

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

The Detroit Lions in the NFC Title Game?! It feels funny to write those words, but I think that’s what we’re looking at. 

These teams met Week 6 in Tampa and the Lions stymied the Bucs, holding them to just 13 first downs en route to a 20-6 victory. 

Now we flip venues, as the Bucs will have to deal with the deafening crowd noise in Detroit as well as the fact that it’s a short week having played on Monday night vs. the Eagles. 

I think the Lions will win this one by double digits. I’m laying the points here.

PICK: Lions (-6) to win by more than 6 points
 

How to Watch Detroit vs. Tampa Bay

• Game Date: Sunday, January 21, 2024
• Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• TV: Watch on NBC

Lions vs. Buccaneers Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Detroit has totaled three wins against Tampa Bay.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Detroit has put up 116 points, while Tampa Bay has compiled 106.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit beat the spread 12 times in 17 games during the season season and is 0-1-0 versus the spread in the postseason.
• The Lions have covered the spread twice when favored by 6.5 points or more this season (in four regular season and playoff opportunities).
• In the regular season, 11 of Detroit’s 17 games went over the point total. It is zero of one in terms of eclipsing the over/under in the playoffs.
• The Lions were the moneyline favorite 14 total times during the regular season. They went 11-3 in those games. When favored on the moneyline in the postseason, they are 1-0.
• Detroit is 3-1 (winning 75% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -278 or shorter, including the regular season and playoffs.
• Looking at this matchup’s moneyline, the Lions’ implied win probability is 73.5%.

Lions Stats

Detroit’s Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff has thrown for 4,575 yards (second in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) and 12 interceptions this year. He averages 269.1 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt, while completing 67.3% of his passes.
• To go along with his passing stats, Goff also has 21 rushing yards (seventh on the Lions), with two rushing touchdowns.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has 119 catches (second in the NFL) for 1,515 yards (third in the NFL) and 10 TDs. Through 16 games, he is averaging 7.4 catches and 94.7 yards per game.
• David Montgomery has 1,015 rushing yards (ninth in the NFL) with 13 touchdowns (72.5 yards per game across 14 games).
• Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for 945 yards, averaging 63.0 yards per game and scoring 10 touchdowns.
• Gibbs has been targeted 71 times and turned those targets into 52 receptions, 316 yards and one TD.

Defense

• On defense, Aidan Hutchinson has 51 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
• Alex Anzalone has 129 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and three sacks this season.
• This season, Brian Branch has recorded 1.0 sack in addition to his 7.0 TFL, 74 tackles, and three interceptions.
• So far this season, Kerby Joseph has 81 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four interceptions.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay posted a 11-6-0 record against the spread during the regular season. Against the spread in the postseason, it is 1-0-0.
• The Buccaneers are yet to lose ATS (2-0) as 6.5-point underdogs or greater in the regular season and playoffs.
• There were six Tampa Bay games (out of 17) that hit the over in the regular season. In the postseason, zero of one Tampa Bay games have exceeded the point total.
• During the regular season, the Buccaneers won five out of 11 games, or 45.5%, in which they were the underdogs. They are 1-0 in the playoffs.
• This season, Tampa Bay has been at least a +225 underdog on the moneyline two times, losing each of those contests (in the regular season and playoffs).
• The Buccaneers have a 30.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Buccaneers Stats

Tampa Bay’s Key Players

Offense

• Baker Mayfield has thrown for 4,044 yards this year (to rank ninth in the NFL), with 28 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and 10 interceptions. He is completing 64.3% of his passes while averaging 237.9 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
• He’s added 163 yards on the ground (third on the Buccaneers), with one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 9.6 yards per game and 2.6 per attempt.
• Rachaad White has scored six rushing touchdowns, while totaling 990 rushing yards (3.6 per carry and 58.2 per game).
• White has also collected 549 receiving yards (32.3 per game) on 64 catches (3.8 per game). He’s been targeted 70 times and has caught three touchdown passes.
• So far this season, Mike Evans has caught 79 passes for 1,255 receiving yards (ninth in the NFL) with 13 touchdowns through the air (first in the NFL). He has been targeted 136 total times and is averaging 4.6 receptions per game through 17 games played.
• Chris Godwin has been targeted 130 times, resulting in 83 catches for 1,024 yards .

Defense

• Antoine Winfield Jr.’s 2023 showing includes 122 tackles, 6.0 TFL, six sacks, and three interceptions through 17 games. He is second on the Buccaneers in tackles.
• Lavonte David has 4.5 sacks (fifth on the Buccaneers) to go with 17.0 TFL and 134 tackles.
• Devin White has 83 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and two interceptions in the 2023 campaign. He is third on the Buccaneers in tackles.
• Shaquil Barrett’s stat sheet includes one interception as well as 52 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and two passes defended in 16 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Trust Baker Mayfield’s Bucs against Detroit Lions? | What’s Wright?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have battled their way through the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Detroit Lions are looming in the division round, and Nick Wright’s not so sure Baker Mayfield can deliver the win. Watch as Nick lays out what would have to happen for the Bucs to upset the Lions, including a possible choke job from Jared Goff?

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