Much has been made about the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) being an underdog on the road this week against the Detroit Lions (5-7).
Most American sportsbooks opened Detroit as a 1-point favorite for Sunday’s meeting at Ford Field and professional money whacked it up to -2 and -2.5 almost immediately. It’s definite respect for a Lions squad that’s finally getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball.
Minnesota rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell has maximized his team’s offensive skill and talent, and the defense does enough to slam the door late. But how long can the Vikings keep surviving every nail biter? They have nine straight victories by one possession, which is almost impossible to sustain.
Sorry Vikings, but your team has been very lucky.
“They are the opposite of the bouncing NFL ball,” WynnBET vice president of trading Alan Berg told FOX Sports.
“The Vikings have been fortunate winners in possibly every win, where one decision has cost the Lions multiple games. They measure up on paper [and power rating] closer than the records show. Plus, it’s a road game for Minnesota, so Detroit definitely gets the edge at home.”
So win-loss records don’t matter?
“They obviously matter because that’s how teams get into the playoffs,” Berg said. “But win-loss records are often inflated or deflated based on a team’s fortunate luck or bad luck. Minnesota hasn’t experienced any bad luck all season. And when they lose, they get creamed.”
Berg isn’t a Vikings hater by any means.
He doesn’t play favorites behind the counter, he assesses every team from an empirical and numerical basis. And power ratings are the great equalizer. They’re basically a north star for bookmakers, and most Vegas calculations have Minnesota closer to Detroit than Kansas City or Philadelphia.
Period.
“I think Minnesota is a solid playoff team, but parity is at an all-time high in the NFL,” Berg opined. “It’s extremely important as to what level a team is playing at going into the postseason.
“The Bills looked unbeatable to start the year, and now they look like one of the favorites, not the favorite. The Vikings have enough talent in key areas, but it will all come down to momentum. Keeping Uncle Mo is always difficult for 17 weeks, plus the entire postseason.
“The NFC feels incredibly wide-open.”
When it comes to handicapping, I’m a huge fan of recent form.
Detroit’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now. After dealing with several bites from the injury bug, Jared Goff finally has his offensive line at full strength and the entire cupboard of playmakers are back.
That’s promising against a Minnesota team that almost gave up 500 yards of offense to Mike White and the New York Jets.
“Even with Goff, Detroit’s offense is no joke,” Berg cracked. “That dynamite offensive line and all those weapons make a quarterback’s life easier. He’s having success as he did in L.A. when the Rams were fully stocked.”
If you’re into trends, FOX Sports Research uncovered this dandy that is working against the Vikings. Teams with a win percentage over 80% who are underdogs against a team with a win percentage under 50% in Week 14 or later are a shocking 0-8 ATS and 0-8 SU since 1966.
That’s the cherry on top for me.
I refuse to ignore Detroit’s white-hot stretch at the betting window. The Lions have covered five straight, and they won four of those five games outright. That offense should give Minnesota’s overrated defense fits.
Lay the points.
PICK: Lions -2.5 (at FOX Bet)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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