It’s the divisional round of the NFL postseason, and these are the weekends I live for.
Super Wild Card Weekend did well for me as my picks went a perfect 4-0, ending my cold run and bringing my season tally to 56-40-2.
This round is certain to bring the heat, as we have: the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meeting up for the third time in the last four postseasons, San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan going head-to-head against his old co-worker in Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur and the mighty Baltimore Ravens are well rested and looking to exorcise the ghosts of playoffs past.
It’s time to buckle up and get locked and loaded for this weekend’s action.
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So, without further ado, here are my best bets for the divisional round.
Texans @ Ravens (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN/ABC)
This line was 10, then Houston money drove it to 9 before a syndicate’s release pushed this back up to 9.5. I’ll have the Ravens in a teaser below the key numbers of 7 and 3.
But I also think the rested Ravens could come out here and drop the hammer early on Houston, so I’ll go with Baltimore first half -6.
In all their biggest games this season, the Ravens have come out and gone to work early with dynamic game plans. They’re relatively as healthy as any team in the playoffs, but they are still missing Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphrey. The latter of which is a real bummer considering he played in Week 17 when he didn’t need to.
The Texans, conversely, are very banged up, especially on the defensive line, which isn’t ideal against a team that averaged 4.9 YPC (third) and a league-high 156 yards per game.
I’m passing on the full game because of backdoor cover potential, and yes, this helps me against the trend everyone is citing — Lamar Jackson in the last three years as a 7-point favorite or higher is 1-8 against the spread (ATS).
PICK: Ravens (-6) first half; to lead at halftime by more than 6 points
is Jordan Love or Brock Purdy more trustworthy in the Divisional Round?
Packers @ 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
The first bet I made this week was San Francisco laying 9.5 at home against the Packers in a matchup of coaching buddies Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur.
As exciting as Green Bay’s destruction of Dallas was last week, let’s remember — this is a poor Packers defense that was shredded by Bryce Young a few weeks ago and by Baker Mayfield (in Green Bay!).
Remember last year when all the sharps faded Brock Purdy in his opener against Seattle? Shanahan’s familiarity with the Seahawks led to 505 yards and 7.7 YPP. The Packers defense will be shredded — it is their fourth road game in five weeks — and I’d look strongly at the team total over.
I do worry about the 49ers’ secondary giving up garbage time points, but the 49ers’ ground game should be able to salt this one away.
PICK: 49ers (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
Buccaneers @ Lions (3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC/Peacock)
The side here is very difficult because I’m not sure how this young Detroit team will handle the success of the first franchise playoff win since the Ice Age. Ben Johnson is getting inundated with job interview requests. And let’s be real – the Rams rolled offensively (7.7 YPP) before struggling in the red zone (0-3).
At the same time, the Bucs caught Philadelphia at the perfect time. No A.J. Brown meant Todd Bowles could blitz a ton and leave his corners on islands. There was not much to worry about.
But Jared Goff has been excellent when blitzed (64% completions, 13 TDs) this season. You have to get pressure with four to beat Goff, and I’m not sure Tampa can.
These are the two best teams ATS this season (12-6). Mayfield will not stop chucking, and the Lions secondary has struggled.
I think the Over is probably the best bet, and I’d lean to the Lions at -6.5.
PICK: Over 48 points scored by both teams combined
Bills vs. Chiefs: Gambling odds, best bets and game predictions
Chiefs @ Bills (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Bills game getting moved from Sunday to Monday last week was a huge blow to Buffalo, which finally gets Patrick Mahomes at home in the playoffs.
The Chiefs, who played Saturday night, get two extra days of rest ahead of the meeting. Then you look at the Bills injury report this week, and it’s brutal, with cluster injuries at LB (Terrel Bernard, Baylor Spector, Tyrel Dodson) and in the secondary (Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Taylor Rapp).
I don’t have a huge conviction in the Chiefs — they’re not a good team this season — and the season-long numbers all favor Buffalo.
Josh Allen has killed the Chiefs with his legs, and you have to wonder if KC fears anyone other than the QB. Will Spagnuolo load up to stop the run and dare Allen to beat them over the top, especially if Gabe Davis doesn’t play?
KC’s defense, quietly, has only given up more than 20 points four times this season, and three of those teams came from the NFC (Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers).
I’m ready to go down swinging with Reid and Mahomes.
PICK: Chiefs (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Chiefs ML
PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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