It’s the NFL’s conference championship week, and the football season is down to the last three games.
The divisional round was a push for me as I went 3-3, bringing my season tally to 59-43-2.
I have seven picks on deck for this week’s pair of title games, so there is plenty of opportunity to win some extra cash as we get ready for the Super Bowl.
Let’s dive into my best bets for the NFC and AFC championship games without further ado.
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I took a small piece of KC +3.5 when the line came out, but I like the Ravens to win the game.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is 13-1 in the postseason against QBs not named Tom Brady. And yes, the Chiefs played their most complete game of the season last week on the road against a beat-up Bills defense.
But, If you like K.C. here, it’s either due to recency bias after the win in Buffalo or because it’s Mahomes in an underdog role. It can’t be because of the season-long metrics — those all favor the Ravens.
The Chiefs’ offensive success in the playoffs came against middling defenses — 19th (Miami Dolphins) and 11th (Buffalo Bills) in DVOA — and they now must face No. 1 on the road.
To make matters worse for K.C., Baltimore is getting CB Marlon Humphrey back from injury. Sure, he’s been hurt this season and hasn’t played at the level of prior years, but his return gives them flexibility to move Kyle Hamilton around. The rookie is a Swiss Army Knife who can match up with Rashee Rice in the slot or Travis Kelce. And K.C. losing All-Pro guard Joe Thuney makes the left side of the line very susceptible.
The Ravens love to step up in class — they’re 8-2 against playoff teams this season, with blown leads against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs are just 3-4 against playoff teams.
Last week, I was on the Chiefs ML, but I had concerns they’d get blown out.
K.C. rebounded nicely in the playoffs after an up-and-down season, but the wheels may fall off here in a 37-16 defeat.
PICK: Ravens ML and Over 44 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: Gus Edwards (+105) anytime TD
PICK: Rashod Bateman (+1200) first Ravens TD
Ravens set to host first AFC Championship Game vs. Chiefs
Lions @ 49ers (6:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This spot lines up well for San Francisco — who looked bad at home against Green Bay (in the rain!), while Detroit won and covered against Tampa Bay.
The public will come in on the Lions and even bigger on the ML. Detroit has been gold for gamblers this season — an NFL-best 13-6 against the spread. However, expect things to be different on Sunday.
The Lions haven’t played a game outdoors since December 10th. Granted, the temperatures are expected to be in the 60s this weekend, but the splits Detroit has this season outside and on grass are down a fair amount from playing on the fast track indoors.
Deebo Samuel is obviously a massive X-factor, but don’t be fooled by just looking at their numbers without him — tackle Trent Williams missed the losses to the Vikings and Bengals, too.
Meanwhile, the Lions defense — while stout against the run (first in DVOA) — has been shredded by the likes of Nick Mullens and Baker Mayfield in recent weeks, and Justin Fields had two of his best games of the season (passing and rushing) against this defense.
Brock Purdy, more nimble than his stats show, could pick up a few clutch first downs with his feet.
With or without Samuel, the 49ers defense will help San Francisco pull away in the second half.
PICK: 49ers (-7) to win by more than 7 points
PICK: 49ers TT Over 29
PICK: Brock Purdy Over 279.5 passing yards
PICK: George Kittle (+710) first TD
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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