We made it! The last game of the 2023 NFL season!
These two teams faced off just four years ago in Miami with Patrick Mahomes hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in his career. Kyle Shanahan has yet to achieve the same honor, though he has significantly upgraded his offense since 2019.
San Francisco’s offense led the league in scoring, recording 61 total TDs during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt (6) and registered the second-most sacks (57) throughout 2023. Defenses might win championships, but the 49ers are favored by 2 points in Super Bowl LVIII.
This column, however, isn’t about picking teams. It’s about picking players, and Daniel and I have some props we think could pop. Let’s dig in.
QB props
Patrick Mahomes MOST passing yards (-150)
Daniel: All we’re trying to do with this bet is take the player with the most passing yards in the game. Because of the 49ers’ dominant run game that includes Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, there’s a very clear reason to default to Mahomes, but let’s dive a little deeper. Looking at the depth of the running backs on each team, it’s pretty easy to see why. The 49ers run more than the Chiefs and it’s really not close. The 49ers were eighth in rush attempts this season, while the Chiefs were 25th. So we already expect the 49ers to have a little more balance to their game because of this. I’m expecting the Niners to run CMC as much as possible, just like they did against the Detroit Lions last week. This has a very high potential to be a classic Mahomes game, and I’m buying into it — give me Mahomes with the MOST passing yards.
Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards
Liz: Purdy isn’t known for his wheels, but that doesn’t mean he can’t use them when he needs to … like when his squad is trailing. Purdy cleared 12.5 rushing yards four times over the regular season. Two of those instances occurred in wins. Purdy was under center for four of the team’s five losses and averaged 21.25 rushing in each of those contests. We saw him scamper for 48 rushing yards in a comeback effort versus the Lions. The week before, he took off for 14 rushing yards in a game that was also decided by just three points. San Francisco is favored by 2 points, which indicates to me a potential increase in rushing opportunities for Mr. (Not so) Irrelevant. Furthermore, the Chiefs allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (20.12/game) during 2023. K.C.’s defense has additionally given up at least 25 rushing yards (to Tua Tagovailoa) over the postseason. I’ll take the OVER on Purdy’s rushing yards.
Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions
Daniel: Purdy has led this 49ers team to the promised land in just his second year in the NFL, and first as a full-time starter. It’s been an incredible ride and no matter what happens, Purdy has solidified himself in 49ers lore. And while it’s been an amazing ride, there has been inconsistency in his play the past couple of weeks. Purdy had 10 off-target throws in the divisional round against the Green Bay Packers; that’s the most he’s had in a game all season. Even though the Packers didn’t come down with one, there were plenty of opportunities. The Lions took advantage of a poor throw with Malcolm Rodriguez getting an interception, and they should have had a second from Kindle Vildor in the second half (ugh, it still hurts). Just like the Packers, they pressured Purdy and also forced seven off target throws, third most all year. By the way, both of those were home games with a crowd in his favor. In these last two playoff games he has given defenses too many opportunities to make a play. With the Chiefs’ secondary and the ability of Chris Jones to apply pressure, you should expect more of the same from Purdy. We’re getting it at plus money, give me OVER on 0.5 INTs.
WR props
Marquez Valdes-Scantling longest catch OVER 13.5 receiving yards
Liz: Betting on MVS’ hands? What could possibly go wrong? Obviously, I kid, but the drops have been no laughing matter for the 29-year-old speedster (or Chiefs fans). Still, Mahomes appears to have released any trust issues, regularly targeting MVS deep throughout the playoffs. And, for the most part, Valdes-Scantling has answered, converting 5 of 8 total looks for 108 yards. In fact, three of the receiver’s five playoff grabs have gone for 14+ receiving yards. The 49ers’ defense proved to be more generous through the air than the ground during the regular season. But Steve Wilks did an excellent job minimizing big plays, as San Francisco allowed the sixth-fewest receptions of 14 or more yards (just under five such receptions per game) during the regular season. That trend, however, has not carried over into the playoffs. San Francisco has surrendered 13 receptions of 14+ yards in both of the team’s playoff efforts, which is third-most among teams (only the Lions and Chiefs have allowed more, and both of those squads suited up for three — not two — playoff contests). In fact, only Jahmyr Gibbs and Anthony Frisker failed to clear this line in the conference championship game. Assuming he can hold on to the ball, MVS should have at least one 15-yard grab next Sunday.
TE props
Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions
Daniel: I know that Kelce slowed down from a stats perspective this year, which is amazing because he still had 93 catches for 984 yards and 5 TDs. Sure, we all would’ve loved to see another 1,000-yard season, but this dude is still as good as it gets at the tight end position. Nobody knows Mahomes better than Kelce and we’ve seen that chemistry flourish over the past couple of weeks. In the championship round against Baltimore, Kelce had 11 catches on 11 targets. It was clear the Ravens had no answer for him. Against the Bills, he had two touchdowns. I know that’s not over the receiving mark we’re looking for, but again, big-time involvement, and in the wild-card round he had 7 catches for 71 yards against the Dolphins. This is as much of a heart play as it is a head play — I believe this is when we see the best out of both Mahomes and Kelce. Two guys who have done it better than anyone else over the past 10 years, in a season where everyone doubted them from the jump. Kelce is going to eat in this one. Oh, by the way … Sam LaPorta just torched these 49ers for 9 catches on 13 targets for 97 yards. If LaPorta and Jared Goff can make it happen, I’m all in on Mahomes finding Kelce for OVER 6.5 receptions.
George Kittle OVER 3.5 receptions
Liz: Kittle was quiet versus Detroit, but I’m buying the dip. The last time these two teams met (Week 7 of 2022) Kittle had 98 yards and a score. He’s also averaged over four catches per game during the regular season. With L’Jarius Sneed likely to shadow Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Jones (as well as George Karlaftis) breathing down Purdy’s neck, Kittle figures to emerge as a safety value over the middle. The Chiefs gave up an average of nearly five catches per game to opposing TEs during the regular season. That number jumped to 6.75 receptions per game the past four weeks of the regular season. K.C. has now allowed 13 of 15 balls to the position throughout the playoffs (including 3 of 4 looks to Durham Smythe). It’s not a generous line, but given how close this game is expected to be, Kittle figures to draw an ample number of opportunities … and I expect a player as clutch as Kittle to deliver on his shots.
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