The Cleveland Browns (5-8) look to keep their slim NFL playoff hopes alive when they play host to the AFC North Division co-leader Baltimore Ravens (9-4) on Saturday.
The Ravens lead the all-time series 35-12, winning five of the past six games, including a 23-20 decision on Oct. 23.
The previous Cleveland Browns franchise moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens and began play in 1996. The expansion Browns began play in Cleveland during the 1999 season.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Ravens-Browns game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):
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Ravens at Browns (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network)
Point spread: Browns -2.5 (Browns favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Ravens cover)
Moneyline: Browns -154 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.49 total); Ravens +120 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 37.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
The Browns are one of the worst bets in the NFL when they play at home.
You might not believe it, considering they’ve won 61% of their home games over the last four years (three of which were with Kevin Stefanski), but the Browns have covered the spread in just 11 of 31 home games since 2019.
That’s the second-worst cover rate in the NFL.
The only team with fewer home covers are the Panthers at 10-21 (32%) against the spread (ATS).
The Browns are also terrible ATS at home in divisional games, as they have covered the spread in just three of 11 home divisional games since 2019.
If that’s not bad enough, the Browns match up well with some divisional foes and poorly with others.
Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns are:
- 5-1 outright vs. the Bengals, but 2-4 ATS
- 3-3 outright vs. the Steelers, but 2-4 ATS
- 1-4 outright vs. the Ravens and 1-4 ATS
To summarize, recent history shows the Browns are:
- terrible at home
- terrible ATS against the AFC North
- terrible vs. the Ravens (both outright and ATS)
Whereas the Browns match up well against the Bengals, they match up terribly vs. the Ravens.
And this version of the Browns?
To beat the Ravens, you need to throw on them.
Baltimore ranks sixth against the run.
You have to pass the ball.
But the Browns are a run-first offense with a quarterback who is performing among the worst in the NFL because he’s still shaking off the rust and isn’t close to being in game shape.
The last two weeks, the Browns have faced the Texans and Bengals defenses. Both are worse vs. the run than the pass. And yet the Browns RBs rank 23rd in EPA/rush.
A big part of that is because they rank 29th in yards before contact per rush.
And a big part of that is the offensive line. They lost Center Ethan Pocic in Week 11 vs. the Bills. He was PFF’s second-best run-blocking center.
Before Pocic’s injury, the Browns ranked third in EPA/rush and No. 13 in yards before contact per rush. They’re bottom-10 in both since his injury.
More stress has fallen on the passing game and, thus, on a quarterback who is not prepared to carry an offense.
On the other side of the ball, cementing this terrible matchup for the Browns is the fact they are absolutely terrible vs. the run, and with the Ravens expected to start backup QB Tyler Huntley, they will lean even more on the run.
On the season, the Browns run defense ranks No. 32 in EPA/rush and No. 31 in yards before contact per RB rush.
And over the second half of the season, the Browns run defense ranks No. 32 in both EPA/rush and in yards before contact per RB rush.
Looking back at every team in every season since 2000, no team has allowed an EPA/rush to RBs worse than the 2022 Browns.
And the yards before contact per RB rush they allow is the third worst since 2017.
This is a perfect matchup for the run-first Ravens, with a backup QB on both sides of the ball. Since these teams last played in Week 7, Baltimore has allowed a league-low 319 rushing yards (53.2 per game) and 2.77 yards per carry.
I don’t envision the Ravens winning this game by a large margin, as every game they play is a tough grind. But it wouldn’t shock me to see the Ravens not only cover the spread but win outright.
PICK: Ravens (+120 at FOX Bet) to win outright
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