No Aiyuk or Samuel trade, so now what for the 49ers? We answered six questions

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — While the San Francisco 49ers were busy selecting eight players in the NFL draft, the conversation surrounding them wasn’t about what they did.

Instead, much of the discussion has centered on what they didn’t do. Despite taking calls on both, the Niners elected not to trade either of their star receivers — Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel — with all signs pointing toward both being on the 2024 roster.

Using a first-round pick (No. 31 overall) on Florida wideout Ricky Pearsall didn’t exactly shut down the trade chatter, but the 49ers didn’t seriously participate in those talks on the second and third day of the draft. It has been a busy offseason for the 49ers when it comes to wide receivers. They also retained restricted free agent Jauan Jennings and drafted Arizona’s Jacob Cowing in the fourth round.

“We’re happy with our wide receiver group,” general manager John Lynch said. “Actually, more than happy. We’re really thrilled with it and thrilled to have added Ricky to that group and even make it stronger.”

The moves the Niners made — and those they didn’t — combine to form an interesting dynamic at the position in 2024 and beyond. Which is why it’s worth answering the many questions still lingering about their wide receiver room.

Why didn’t the 49ers trade Aiyuk or Samuel?

On a team that has already paid Samuel and a handful of other star players, the outside assumption has been that Aiyuk, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract, would be the odd man out.

Teams have inquired about Aiyuk’s availability as far back as March 2023. The Niners rebuffed those overtures then, and when the subject was mentioned this year, they would have considered trading him only if they got an offer that was too good to refuse.

When it became clear that the 49ers weren’t open to any deal involving Aiyuk that didn’t put them in position to pick one of the draft’s top three receivers — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze, who were picked at Nos. 4, 6 and 9, respectively — no trade materialized and all eyes turned to Samuel.

Samuel still has two years left on the deal he signed prior to the 2022 season at cap numbers of $28,633,765 in 2024 and $24,200,529 in 2025. That served the conflicting purposes of making his salary a logical one to potentially unload while also making a trade more difficult to pull off.

Looming over all of this is the 49ers, who have been to at least the NFC Championship Game in four of the past five seasons, remain in a Super Bowl window. Losing Aiyuk or Samuel would almost certainly make them worse in 2024, which is likely the last year quarterback Brock Purdy will be playing on a seventh-round rookie contract before signing an extension that should significantly increase his cap hit from the $1.12 million it’s currently scheduled to be in 2025.

Therefore, San Francisco didn’t have to trade either player and wasn’t going to unless its price was met.

“We love those guys,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “We still always listen to everybody … that doesn’t change yesterday, today, tomorrow, ever.”

What are the financial implications of keeping Aiyuk and Samuel?

Contrary to popular belief, the 49ers can afford both for 2024. They’re currently slated to count a combined $42.76 million against the cap. But an Aiyuk extension would likely reduce his $14.124 million cap number for the upcoming season.

For frame of reference, when Samuel signed his extension, his cap numbers were $6.8 million in 2022 and $8.7 million last season. Assuming a similar deal for Aiyuk, by the time his salary balloons in 2026, highly paid Niners such as Samuel, tight end George Kittle, running back Christian McCaffrey and cornerback Charvarius Ward would be off the books, barring extensions.

What’s the status of Aiyuk’s contract negotiations?

Another factor has been what has been perceived as Aiyuk’s unhappiness with the 49ers. He has used social media to express displeasure with how contract talks have gone, including unfollowing the team on Instagram, and has not been attending the team’s voluntary offseason program.

While a deal isn’t imminent, there have been signs of progress. Aiyuk texted his approval to Lynch and Shanahan after they picked Pearsall, his former Arizona State teammate, an indication that things aren’t as tense as social media might make it seem.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk texted GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan moments after they selected his former Arizona State teammate Ricky Pearsall with their first-round pick Thursday night. The message, per Shanahan: “Fire Pick, can’t lie.”

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 26, 2024

Comparable wideouts such as Philadelphia‘s DeVonta Smith (three years, $75 million, with $51 million guaranteed) and Detroit‘s Amon-Ra St. Brown (four years, $120 million, with $77 million guaranteed) have recently signed deals that could provide a blueprint to an Aiyuk agreement.

The 49ers have been planning to extend Aiyuk this offseason for more than a year, according to multiple team sources. While that could still take some time — as it has with stars Samuel, Kittle, defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner — the Niners have always gotten those deals done before the season, mostly right before or during training camp.

When will the Niners have to decide between Aiyuk and Samuel, and what might that decision look like?

The most likely time for such a decision was always going to be 2025, and nothing has happened to change that timeline.

Samuel’s deal has no more guaranteed money after the season, which gives the Niners an out if they decide to move on. There would be a $15.1 million dead money charge if they cut or traded Samuel before June 1, 2025, but it would save $9.1 million against the 2025 cap. Strong arguments could be made for either player to stay because each has been integral to San Francisco’s success.

Unless the Niners can’t work out an extension with Aiyuk, it seems Samuel would likely be on the way out. Samuel is older (he’ll be 29 next offseason to Aiyuk’s 27), and Aiyuk has proved more durable (Samuel has missed seven games in the past three seasons, while Aiyuk has missed one).

Is it possible both could stay beyond 2025? Nothing is impossible, but it would likely require an extension for Samuel, which would be difficult to pull off because paying Purdy will be the top priority next offseason.

Could the looming decision create drama for the 49ers this year?

These situations come with an inherent amount of combustibility. The first part of the equation is paying Aiyuk. The longer Aiyuk’s negotiations go, chances for a flare-up increase.

If a deal for Aiyuk is done, it’s possible Samuel could read the writing on the wall and be unhappy.

There’s also another way to look at it: Samuel would ostensibly be entering a contract year, is close friends with Aiyuk and badly wants to win a Super Bowl. Samuel had his best season in 2021 (1,770 yards from scrimmage with 14 touchdowns) on the way to his current contract, and a motivated Samuel is the most productive version of him.

Samuel and Aiyuk have been kept in the loop on the Niners’ plans throughout the offseason. Plenty of things can derail a promising season, but San Francisco’s core players understand how the business side of things work, which is why a disappointing season would likely be the product of something besides hurt feelings.

Where do Jennings, Pearsall and Cowing fit in 2024 and beyond?

Like Aiyuk, Jennings is entering the last year of his rookie contract. The 49ers have been working to re-sign the 2020 seventh-rounder but so far nothing has materialized. The 49ers used a second-round tender to keep Jennings on a one-year, $4.89 million deal.

That tender indicates Jennings would have drawn plenty of interest on the open market, something his camp surely realizes. There’s little motivation for him to sign before seeing what his value truly is, which makes agreeing to a deal to retain him that much more difficult.

The prospect of losing Jennings and Samuel speaks to why San Francisco drafted Pearsall and Cowing. The Niners needed to improve their receiver depth — they were 1.4 yards per play worse when Samuel was not on the field in 2023 — and Pearsall and Cowing should provide more, even as rookies, than the likes of Ray-Ray McCloud III and Ronnie Bell.

Also, Shanahan is notoriously tough on rookie wideouts, so getting Pearsall and Cowing into the system now allows them to get acclimated before their roles presumably expand in their second season. If they progress how the Niners hope, it’s realistic to think they’ll join Aiyuk among San Francisco’s top three receivers in 2025 — and beyond.

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