No other NFL team has received more hype than the Texans this offseason, and it’s easy to understand why.
Led by first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, who had arguably the best rookie quarterback season in league history, Houston won 10 regular-season games in 2023 en route to its first division title in four years. The team was one win away from the AFC Championship Game. And if the Texans’ promising young core wasn’t enough, they’ve added a slew of big-name additions entering 2024: wide receiver Stefon Diggs, running back Joe Mixon, edge rusher Danielle Hunter, defensive lineman Denico Autry and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Houston committed more than $145 million in contract value to those five players.
So even if team legend J.J. Watt doesn’t get a call from Ryans to return for one more season, there are plenty of reasons for optimism if you’re the Texans.
The question is: Have they been too hyped?
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It’s certainly not uncommon to see teams crowned as Super Bowl contenders after flashy offseason moves, only to flop when it comes to actually playing football.
We’ve also seen teams pushed into contention based on a previous season’s results, only to succumb to expectations. The Texans can look within their own division for a cautionary tale. The Jaguars, who made the divisional round in the 2022 season, had their biggest collapse in franchise history in 2023, missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record after beginning the year 8-3.
All those factors are why it’s not surprising to hear how Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio have discussed outside chatter about the team the past couple of months.
“We don’t care about expectations,” Ryans said last month. “Talk doesn’t win games.”
On paper, the Texans could have the NFL’s most productive wide receiver room. Their wide receivers last season had 3,272 receiving yards, fourth in the league — and that was with rookie standout Tank Dell missing six games and without Diggs, who had 1,183 yards for Buffalo last season.
But what version of Diggs are the Texans getting? The 30-year-old receiver should be plenty motivated to play well, considering he’ll hit the free-agent market in 2025 after Houston agreed to wipe out the final three years of his contract. But his production saw a significant dip late last season. After registering at least 100 receiving yards in five of the Bills’ first six games, he didn’t hit the century mark in the final 11 games.
Any chance the Diggs trade backfires for the Texans?
At running back, Mixon is a flashy upgrade over Devin Singletary, who signed with the New York Giants in free agency. Among all tailbacks since 2021, when he made his lone Pro Bowl, Mixon is tied for third in rushing touchdowns (29) and fifth in rushing yards (3,053). Of the four running backs with at least 750 carries in that span (Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris are the others), Mixon is rated No. 1 with 39.3% of his runs outgaining expected rushing yards, according to Next Gen Stats.
But Mixon is an older running back — he turns 28 in July — with plenty of mileage on his body. Houston has taken on a risk in giving him $19.75 million across the next two years.
As deep as the Texans are at several spots, they have uncertainty in the secondary, too.
Houston ranked 23rd in pass defense last season. The team allowed 60 receptions of 20-plus yards in 2023, sixth-most in the league, according to Sportradar. From Weeks 12-18, the Texans allowed 28 of those “explosive” receptions, third-most in that span.
Second-round pick Kamari Lassiter has a chance to make a difference at cornerback, where Houston’s pecking order is unclear outside of standout Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans signed former top-10 picks Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson to one-year deals this offseason.
Lassiter allowed just a 38.5% completion rate in coverage last season at Georgia, ranked No. 1 in the SEC and fourth-best among FBS cornerbacks who played at least 299 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Per The Athletic’s “The Beast,” the last time he gave up more than two catches in a game was in the 2022 College Football Playoff game against a Stroud-led Ohio State.
Third-round pick Calen Bullock may also be the Texans’ future at safety, where the team struggled in 2023. Veteran Jimmie Ward missed seven games and Jalen Pitre had an up-and-down sophomore campaign.
What are realistic expectations for the Texans?
And for all the reinforcement on the defensive line to support Will Anderson Jr., the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, there are question marks on the interior.
Houston traded starting defensive tackle Maliek Collins to the 49ers. Veteran Foley Fatukasi, who signed a one-year deal worth $5.1 million, and seventh-round pick Marcus Harris are essentially his replacements. With their lack of investment on the interior defensive line, the Texans are banking on Autry’s versatility and the firepower on the edge to shore up potential deficiencies.
So sure, this Texans team is deserving of hype.
But we won’t know if they can carry it until the football starts.
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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