If I had written a UFL championship game preview just six weeks ago, I have to admit that I would’ve taken the Birmingham Stallions to cover any spread.
The Stallions had won two straight USFL titles and had not lost a game in over a year. This streak stretched back to the 2023 season. Then, in Week 8, Birmingham struggled to put away Houston and allowed 28 points to the worst scoring offense in the league.
What came next probably hurt Birmingham moneyline backers as much as it hurt Birmingham.
In Week 9, the winning streak came to an end and the Stallions suffered an 18-9 loss to San Antonio.
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This is the same team they will play on Sunday for the title. Yes, the Brahmas lost to Michigan in Week 10, but considering how unimportant that game was, it’s hard to judge them from that.
Michigan was the squad that the Stallions had to get past in last week’s UFL playoff semifinal. Birmingham got down 18-3 before scoring 28 unanswered points. Included in their comeback was a pick six, and the reigning spring football champs ended up defeating Michigan 31-18.
2024 UFL MVP: Stallions QB Adrian Martinez season highlights
The Stallions defense, which had been weaker than usual lately, actually played well in the second half. Their offense — the best scoring unit in the league this season — had four turnovers but still ended up with over 350 yards. They made a change at quarterback in the third quarter and benched UFL MVP Adrian Martinez for Matt Corral.
According to head coach Skip Holtz, this switch provided a “spark” for the squad. However, Martinez should start on Sunday, especially because having quarterback concerns heading into a championship game is not an ideal situation.
On the other side of the ball is a Brahmas team that stays in games because of its defense.
San Antonio has not allowed more than 18 points in a game since Week 3. The last two weekends, it allowed 12 and 15 points to St. Louis.
Against the Stallions in Week 9, San Antonio allowed only nine and then only 15 points to the Arlington Renegades. The three best scoring offenses in the UFL scored a combined 51 points in four games against the Brahmas defense.
San Antonio has the benefit of having a healthy quarterback in Chase Garbers, who could be the difference in this game. He’s only seen action in five contests but is leading the league in completion percentage.
Ultimately, even if the Stallions defense has regressed some, it will be a struggle for the Brahmas to get points.
Given the state of both teams, I’m going with the Under in this game. The Stallions have some uncertainty at quarterback but have a solid defense. On the flip side, the Brahmas have an outstanding defense and an offense that is just serviceable.
This feels like a 20-17 game.
PICK: Under 42 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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