Oddsmakers always want to win the duel against bettors.
But occasionally, a loss behind the counter is more beneficial for the sportsbook in the long term.
Such is the case in the Copa América odds market for Monday night’s USA–Uruguay clash on FS1.
“While USA winning is probably going to be a bad result for us on the night, we’d be more than happy to book a USA-Brazil quarterfinal this week,” BetMGM trading manager and soccer aficionado Seamus Magee said.
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If it all shakes out right, USA-Brazil could happen. But first, the U.S. men’s national team likely needs a win over Uruguay to advance.
And even that might not be enough.
Magee offered his insights on odds and action in Copa América betting, ahead of this 9 p.m. ET contest.
Flip-Flopped Favorite
Uruguay rolled through its first two Copa América matches, topping Panama 3-1, then drubbing Bolivia 5-0. So it stands to reason that the South American squad would be favored vs. the U.S.
However, with 6 points already on its ledger, Uruguay is guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals. And with eight goals on the board, the Uruguayans will almost certainly remain in first place, regardless of what happens Monday night.
In short, Uruguay has almost nothing to play for.
On the flip side, Team USA’s tourney life is at stake. So BetMGM opened the three-way market at USA +150/Uruguay +188/Draw +220.
“If these were normal circumstances, Uruguay would certainly be the favorite. But since they’re already through and at the top of the group, we should see a largely rotated lineup for Uruguay,” Magee said, meaning some top players could sit out or see limited time Monday night.
Win And They’re In — Maybe
On the flip side, the U.S. is in an all-in, practically must-win situation, due to its surprising 2-1 loss to Panama on Thursday. Depending on how Panama fares against Bolivia — also at 9 p.m. ET on Monday night — even an American victory might not be enough to advance.
Ostensibly, the USA needs to fare better against Uruguay than Panama fares against Bolivia. The U.S. could actually advance to the quarterfinals with a draw, but that’s not as likely to get the job done.
BetMGM customers are banking on a Team USA victory.
“It’s been largely U.S. money for the most part. I foresee that continuing to be the case until kickoff,” Magee said.
In fact, the USMNT is a slightly larger favorite as of Sunday night, with the three-way moneyline at USA +140/Uruguay +195/Draw +225. That means a $100 bet on the U.S. would profit $140 ($240 total payout) if Christian Pulisic & Co. beat Uruguay.
Another potential benefit for Team USA: The match is on home turf at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium.
No doubt, American fans will be in full form, three days before the Fourth of July.
USMNT vs. Uruguay final preview: Can the United States pull out the victory?
Other Markets To Watch
Pulisic is arguably the USMNT’s most popular player, and he’s bet that way in player prop markets. With Team USA facing a tough opponent Monday night, Magee said Pulisic’s odds are more attractive to the public betting masses.
Pulisic is +600 to score the match’s first goal. So a $100 bet would profit $600 ($700 total payout) if he puts the U.S. on the board first.
Pulisic is +240 to score at any point in the match.
Teammate Folarin Balogun scored against Bolivia in the opener and against Panama on Thursday.
“Balogun and Pulisic to score [at any time] continue to be the most popular player props for us,” Magee said.
Balogun is +225 to score at any time and +550 to score the match’s first goal. Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez is the favorite in the first goal/anytime goal markets, at +500 and +195, respectively.
Nunez has scored in both of Uruguay’s matches thus far.
The USA-Uruguay total is another interesting market. The total is at 2.5, but BetMGM anticipates a low-scoring match, with the Under at -150 and the Over at +110. That means it takes a $150 bet to win $100 on the Under ($250 total payout), but just a $100 wager on the Over to win $110 ($210 total payout).
“It’s been 50/50 action so far on the total. The Over is a pretty cheap price, so you might see some more public money coming in on the Over,” Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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