Major League Baseball is as unpredictable as ever.
The Royals have won nearly as many games before the All-Star break as they did all of last season. The surging Red Sox were projected to finish last in the AL East, while the first-place Brewers were expected to come in fourth in the NL Central. Meanwhile, there is a plethora of teams that have underachieved in the first half yet remain in the thick of the wild-card race.
Not everything is upside down, however.
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are again having seasons for the ages. No longer competing for the same MVP award, the question now is, which one is better? They’ll both be in the spotlight at next week’s All-Star Game (Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), as will rookie phenom Paul Skenes, who was announced Friday as the starting pitcher for the National League.
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Accordingly, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. Which of the biggest first half surprise teams (i.e. Brewers, Guardians, Royals, Red Sox) do you believe in most?
Thosar: The Red Sox. This is a make-or-break year for Alex Cora because his managerial contract ends at the conclusion of this season. So, I think he’ll be on his best tactical behavior in the second half of the season, particularly with a roster that has proved it can dig itself out of holes. Boston is just scrappy and determined enough to play spoiler in the AL East and maybe even sprint past the Yankees, who can’t seem to put an end to their downward spiral.
After a series win against the Phillies, two series wins against the Yankees — all while exploiting New York’s inability to control the running game — and having an excellent record in one-run games, the Red Sox are proving they’re not threatened by top teams and that should only add to their tenacity down the stretch.
Kavner: As tempting as it is to take the Red Sox here, I’ll go with the Guardians. You don’t just luck into the best record in the American League more than halfway through the season. Their bullpen is lethal. Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith all rank in the top seven in fWAR among qualified MLB relievers, but what separates this year’s Cleveland team most from previous iterations is the offense.
José Ramírez — who is on an absurd pace of 40 homers, 137 RBIs and 32 stolen bases this year — and Josh Naylor are providing much needed power. Steven Kwan leads MLB in batting average. I have some concern about the depth of the lineup, especially with David Fry cooling off, and a Guardians rotation that ranks 24th in ERA needs more help. But it’s rather incredible what Cleveland has done despite that, and I have to think their starting pitching performs at least moderately better before year’s end. The Guardians’ battle with the Twins should be a fun one down the stretch.
2. Are you more impressed with the season of Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge so far?
Kavner: Ohtani. Even though the toe issue was still a bit of a concern entering the year for Judge, we’ve come to expect this type of production from him. Back in early May when he was hitting .200, he was still my pick for the best hitter in baseball. I think it was less clear what exactly Ohtani would look like this season coming off his elbow procedure. We saw last year how long it took Bryce Harper to look like himself right after Tommy John surgery (he had three homers in his first 50 games back).
Five years ago, Corey Seager hit only 19 homers in his first season off TJ. Ohtani, meanwhile, already has 28 home runs before the break. He hasn’t missed a step. In fact, this could end up being his best offensive season yet. The fact that he could be the first ever exclusive DH to win MVP in a tumultuous first year off major surgery is incredible.
Thosar: Aaron Judge. The rest of the league essentially got a head start while Judge struggled in April, posting a .207/.340/.414 slashline through his first 31 games of the year. That the Yankees slugger now leads MLB in home runs, RBIs and OPS, with one of the top WARs in the majors, is nothing short of spectacular. His numbers are particularly impressive when put in the context of the rest of the league.
Offense is down across the sport, with numbers on track to register all-time lows by the time the season is over, but if you looked at Judge’s Baseball-Reference page, you wouldn’t know it. Ohtani, too, has been astounding this season, not missing a beat after elbow surgery amid a gambling scandal that kicked off the first season of his 10-year contract with the Dodgers. But Judge has the edge because of his slow start and, in part, his continued ability to carry the Yankees offense mostly on his own.
3. Which club currently under .500 do you like most to bounce back in the second half and make the playoffs?
Thosar: The Rangers. They can’t seem to shake off their World Series hangover, but they still have the pieces to turn it around in the second half and surprise us, just like they did last year, and make a push for the playoffs. One of their problems is they’re running out of time to avoid being sellers at the deadline. Max Scherzer recently galvanized the roster by publicly saying he will not waive his no-trade clause so that he can stay and help the Rangers play better baseball. It’s the kind of confidence, along with improved play on the field, that can get a clubhouse going.
Plus, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom is on his way back to the mound following his second-career Tommy John surgery. DeGrom, too, is the kind of dominant starter than can convince the organization that it’s not done yet. Now that Texas knows what it’s like to capture baseball nirvana, it should be hungry to reach for glory again.
Kavner: My top two answers for this would be last year’s World Series contenders, but considering I think it’s more likely that the Rangers sell at the deadline than the Diamondbacks, I’ll take the D-backs here (they were only one game under .500 as of this writing, which might be a little cheap, but it counts). They’ve seen Corbin Carroll regress significantly and dealt with extended absences to basically their entire rotation, and yet they’re right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are both All-Star caliber players (even if the former was snubbed), Zac Gallen and Geraldo Perdomo are back after missing an extended stretch, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eugenio Suárez are heating up, and better days should be ahead for Arizona after the break if Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and/or Jordan Montgomery can come back healthy and looking right in the second half.
4. What stands out to you about the All-Star rosters?
Kavner: That none of Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Christian Walker or Brice Turang made the National League roster (at least as of yet). Those, to me, are the biggest position player snubs. The Brewers deserved more than two reps, and there’s no good reason Pete Alonso should be the Mets’ representative over Nimmo — who had a legitimate argument to start the game with Fernando Tatís Jr. hurt — and Lindor.
Thosar: The American League’s starting lineup is significantly more stacked than the National League’s. Give me an outfield of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Steven Kwan over an outfield of Christian Yelich, Jurickson Profar, and Fernando Tatís Jr., every day of the week. There’s just no breathing room in the AL starting lineup, beginning with Adley Rutschman and ending with designated hitter Yordan Álvarez — and that’s with Bobby Witt Jr. as a reserve.
The AL’s loaded All-Star squad only further points to the mediocrity in the NL’s wild-card race as a whole, and how several sub-.500 clubs are still in the running for playoff contention. Plus, we already know All-Star selections are largely popularity contests, with snubs like outfielder Brandon Nimmo and right-hander Luis Gil not making the cut. So, that the field is not a true and total representation of the game’s best players also stands out.
5. What are you looking forward to seeing in the All-Star Game? Who’s going to win?
Thosar: I’m looking forward to Paul Skenes showing off his talent at the All-Star Game and possibly (most likely) blowing everyone away. So far, nearly every opposing lineup that’s faced him has came away saying he’s the real deal. But now he can have even more fun going up against the best hitters in MLB and put himself on the map in an even bigger way. Starting Skenes is absolutely the right call and should make for a riveting first inning against Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. I think the AL will win this year, just going off of how stacked their squad is, anyway. But anything can happen.
Kavner: The young talent. I’m geeked to watch Paul Skenes start and face some of the top stars in the game. That will be premium theater. Bobby Witt Jr. has been the third-most valuable player in baseball this year by WAR but happens to play the same position as Gunnar Henderson, so he’ll have to come off the bench. That, plus playing close to home, should give him some extra motivation. There are so many talented young shortstops in the game today, and I have a feeling Elly De La Cruz will do something that will leave us in awe.
Elias Díaz finally got the National League off the schneid last year, but missing Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatís Jr. is a big hit to the NL roster, and I think you can look at the position player groups on both sides and feel pretty secure that the AL has the more stacked group. These tend to always be pretty close games, but I think the AL takes this one handily.
Bonus: What’s your fondest All-Star memory?
Kavner: From home, it was watching ironman Cal Ripken Jr. get a standing ovation in his 19th and final All-Star Game and then depositing an unforgettable home run. In person, it was seeing Clayton Kershaw get to start the All-Star Game for the first time in his career at Dodger Stadium in 2022. The honor at his home ballpark meant a lot to Kershaw, especially since his kids were old enough to understand what it all meant. “As you get older, everything gets put into perspective a little more with this game and how special it is,” he said.
Thosar: My favorite All-Star Game memory is simply the fact that it used to matter. Up until 2017, the winner of the ASG used to receive home-field advantage. It added extra juice to the game, with a true incentive for players and fans to tune in until the very last out. Now, the All-Star Game is more of a break for players to hang out with each other and take it easy during the halfway point of the season. Some of us, though, never want the competition to stop.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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