Every new NFL coach said the right things at their introductory press conference. They all filled their speeches with optimism and insisted they had a plan. And considering the circumstances that led to their teams hiring a new coach, it was easy to trust all of them. Everyone wanted to believe.
Now comes the real test, though. It’s easy to be optimistic in the spring, but the task gets tougher as the calendar moves towards fall. There are eight new head coaches among the NFL’s 32 teams as training camps begin to open next week, all hoping to turn around their franchises, or at least give them a new-coach bump in the standings.
Not all of them will.
So which of the eight will have the most success at turning their optimism into actual wins? And which ones are in for a much bigger struggle than maybe even they imagined?
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Here’s a look at the outlook for each of them, ranked by their projected record in 2024:
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2024 record: 10-7 (W-L improvement: plus-5)
There’s no doubt the Chargers won the biggest prize of the offseason when they landed Harbaugh, the man the NFL has been after for nearly a decade. Whatever anyone thinks of him, his personality or his methods, he wins everywhere he goes. That includes the NFL, where he went 44-19-1 from 2011-14 in San Francisco and took the 49ers to three NFC championship games and a Super Bowl.
Fresh off winning a national championship at his alma mater Michigan, Harbaugh inherits a Chargers team that has been a perennial disappointment thanks to an ugly combination of injuries and Brandon Staley’s terrible coaching. He’s got a good roster with one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Justin Herbert. They did lose a lot of weapons in the offseason — like running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — but that shouldn’t stop Harbaugh from finally helping the Chargers reach the playoffs and maybe even make a run at the AFC West crown.
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2024 record: 10-7 (W-L improvement: plus-3)
Considering he beat out Bill Belichick for this job, there’s a lot of pressure on Morris, 12 years after his first NFL head-coaching job. The good news is he inherited a strong team that filled its biggest hole when it signed quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency.
Assuming Cousins is healthy and won’t be as atrocious as Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were in Atlanta last year, the offense should be loaded. They’ve got two strong backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, big targets in Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, and a strong offensive line. They also have a defense that ranked 11th last season and they’re in a division that could be wide open.
Morris is well-regarded in the NFL. If he’s as good as everyone believes, there’s a chance for a huge improvement in Atlanta.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
Projected 2024 record: 8-9 (W-L improvement: even)
There was a lot of excitement in Vegas last year when Pierce took over for the hated Josh McDaniels and the Raiders made a push for the playoffs. In the end, though, they were only 5-4 under Pierce and fell a bit short, in large part because their offense — and their quarterback play in particular — was terrible.
Unfortunately for Pierce, it might not be much better this year. They’ll be going with journeyman Gardner Minshew at the helm, which seems good enough for .500 but not much else. And if they end up trading star wideout Davante Adams — as so many believe they might — Minshew isn’t going to have a lot to help him.
The fiery Pierce will have his team ready for every game. The defense is good enough to keep them in every game. But that offense makes their ceiling very low.
Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2024 record: 8-9 (W-L improvement: minus-1)
The Seahawks barely missed the playoffs last season, but they looked much more like a team starting over this offseason. They lost a lot of pieces on defense and along their defensive line as they try to build the team in Macdonald’s image.
That’s not a bad thing. It just might take some time. Macdonald is an outstanding defensive mind and should immediately improve a defense that ranked 30th last season. And they have a strong group of offensive weapons that should be able to keep Geno Smith from regressing. But counting on a new coach, a new philosophy, and so many young players could be tough in a division topped by the 49ers and Rams.
Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
Projected 2024 record: 7-10 (W-L improvement: plus-1)
When the Titans dumped the well-respected Mike Vrabel, they turned where most teams turn these days — to a young, bright offensive mind. Then they helped the 39-year-old Callahan out by signing running back Tony Pollard and receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency.
But how much will that really help? Pollard replaces Derrick Henry, who had been one of the best workhorse backs in the NFL. And their quarterback situation is still unstable, with young Will Levis being joined by newcomer Mason Rudolph. So much of their outlook depends on how much Callahan can get out of either of them.
They are also in an increasingly tough division behind both the Texans and Jaguars — who could be contenders in the AFC — and the improving Indianapolis Colts. Even a big leap by the quarterbacks might not get them out of the basement, even if their record is slightly improved.
Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Projected 2024 record: 6-11 (W-L improvement: plus-2)
Quinn wasn’t hired for short-term success. The Commanders know this is a long-term rebuilding project. But they made enough changes this offseason, loading up with a small army of veteran free agents, that they’re likely to be much more competitive on the field than they were last year when, at times, it looked like they were all just waiting for Ron Rivera to get fired.
The key, of course, will be how quickly rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will be the player they expect him to be. Even if that happens fast, though, they could struggle in a division with the Eagles and Cowboys, two legit Super Bowl contenders. The improvement might be more in the quality than in the standings. Then again, last year was so bad (4-13), the bar is pretty low.
Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers
Projected 2024 record: 5-12 (W-L improvement: plus-3)
The outlook of this entire franchise is going to be incredibly bleak if it turns out they were wrong about Bryce Young, the quarterback they picked at the top of the draft a year ago instead of C.J. Stroud. That’s a big reason why their impulsive owner, David Tepper, ignored the big coaching names on the market and hired a young quarterback whisperer instead.
Canales, just 42, has worked wonders with both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa. Of course, he had them as veterans and helped them resurrect their careers. With Young, Canales needs to build him into a franchise quarterback, assuming the ability is there.
How well he does that means everything for both this season and for how long Canales lasts in Carolina. Young has a better line in front of him this season and better receivers, so he is set up for at least mild improvement. But again, that’s if he can do it. That’s very much unclear.
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Projected 2024 record: 3-14 (W-L improvement: minus-1)
It’s still hard to describe — and fathom — how far the Patriots sunk at the end of the Bill Belichick era. And it wasn’t just about the departure of Tom Brady. Last year’s team had terrible personnel all over the roster. The cupboard that Mayo inherited is very, very bare.
So consider this the biggest rebuilding job in the field, especially since they’re going to rely on a rookie quarterback — Drake Maye — who many scouts believe will need time and seasoning before he’s ready to win in the NFL. And assuming he even starts over veteran Jacoby Brissett, he’ll be playing behind a bad offensive line and with one of the least impressive receiving corps in the NFL.
On the bright side, the Patriots defense was pretty good last season. But how much of that was Belichick, who still was one of the best defensive minds in the game? Mayo, who was Belichick’s inside linebackers coach, will find out quickly, because he’s going to need that defense to be just as good if he hopes to win any games at all.
Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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