The expanded playoffs have allowed too many teams to believe there’s a chance they could be in serious contention with just around 80 wins. That’s a trap.
Yes, yes, there is the argument of the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, who snuck into the postseason with 84 wins in the regular season before surprising all the way to the Fall Classic. Let’s call them the Cinderella-story exception. There’s a better option than trying to emulate the D-backs, and that involves fading teams selling their best assets in a trade market that is ripe for superstars and desperate for starters and position players.
Sure, selling — and selling big — is an upsetting signal to fan bases that the rest of the season will be stale and uninteresting. But there’s plenty of space for teams that are out of the race to be opportunistic about their future by using their leverage to receive exciting prospect packages in return for veteran difference-makers. The Chicago Cubs, who currently sit five games out of a playoff spot and sport a top-10 payroll, have already gone public about their intentions to unload veterans ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Keeping that in mind, here are five other clubs with depressed playoff aspirations who should become full-blown sellers within the next week.
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1. Texas Rangers (50-52; 10th in AL, 3.0 GB in AL West)
Assets to watch: SP Nathan Eovaldi, SP Max Scherzer, OF Adolis García, SP Michael Lorenzen, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RP David Robertson, RP Kirby Yates
From World Series champs to sellers?! It’s not unprecedented, but it is a disappointment after the Rangers had high hopes for a repeat this year. They don’t have to completely derail their chances of competing for the playoffs in 2025 by trading away the players listed above. The market is short on position players, as well as big-game starting pitchers, so it’s possible the Rangers could receive major-league ready talent in return for some of their reigning champions.
That way, the Rangers can build around their core (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, et al.) and come back strong for next year. With the tallest stack of potentially tradeable players on our list of teams here, the Rangers shouldn’t pass up this opportunity by trying to convince themselves they could make a run for it. There’s been hardly any compelling evidence from this group that it could stun us and repeat as champions this year.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (46-55; 12th in AL, 9.0 GB in AL wild card)
Assets to watch: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., SS Bo Bichette, SP Chris Bassitt, OF George Springer, SP Yusei Kikuchi
The Jays’ farm system is ranked 25th in MLB, according to FanGraphs, and it could stand to get a solid boost in the form of top-end talent. The way to achieve that would be to dangle veteran All-Stars like Guerrero and Bichette, particularly since both homegrown stars are set to become free agents after next season. If the Jays can’t or won’t reach contract extensions with Guerrero or Bichette, all the more reason to get what they can for each player before possibly losing either or both to free agency.
This year’s trade deadline is desperate for big names, as well as difference-makers, to be shuffled to contending teams. Guerrero and Bichette are playing their sixth season together and while they’ve made the playoffs three times, Toronto has yet to advance past the wild-card round. Something isn’t clicking with this core, and it’s high time for a retool.
3. San Francisco Giants (49-54; 11th in NL, 4.5 GB in NL wild card)
Assets to watch: SP Blake Snell, 3B Matt Chapman, DH Jorge Soler, RP Camilo Doval, OF Michael Conforto
At this point, it’s preposterous for the Giants to truly believe they’re just a strong stretch from Snell or a comeback from Robbie Ray away from seriously contending for the playoffs. Then again, with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi possibly fighting to keep his job, they might have no choice but to keep pushing for the playoffs. But they haven’t so much as sniffed .500-ball since May 31, and rebuilding for the future has looked like their best option for weeks now. Fortunately for San Francisco, it has a major piece in Snell that would attract playoff contenders. The reigning Cy Young winner has had a tough year, but his expected ERA of 3.54 and xwOBA of .298 tells us he’s due for a major bounce back in the second half, which has already appeared to manifest in recent weeks.
Outside of Garrett Crochet, Snell could be the most coveted pitcher on the market if the Giants make him available. Though a move like that would signal that the Giants have flushed their season, and it very well might mean the end of Zaidi’s six-year reign in San Francisco, it’s better than the major risk they’re currently selling to fans by hoping that their returning players and underperforming roster will suddenly turn the season around. Their 22nd-ranked farm system could also use a serious boost.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (51-51; 9th in AL, 4.5 GB in AL wild card)
Assets to watch: 3B Isaac Paredes, OF Randy Arozarena, SP Zach Eflin, 1B Yandy Diaz
The Rays have one of the top farm systems in the league, so they don’t need to sell their stars for prospect capital. But they can certainly add to that strength by making big deals in a lost season. Tagged as perennial contenders, it’s been six years since Tampa Bay missed the playoffs. Rival executives are not accustomed to even thinking about buying assets from the Rays’ typically talented active roster. That can, and should, change this year if the Rays decide to become sellers.
There is no shortage of a need for starting pitching, and Eflin would be an attractive get for this season, plus he has another year of team control. But the real prize would be Paredes, coming off his first career All-Star nod and at the top of the list in a market thin on third baseman. The 25-year-old doesn’t enter free agency until 2028, so it would take a blockbuster package to land him. But if the desperation level is high enough, Paredes could be the golden ticket that pushes a playoff team over the top.
5. Cincinnati Reds (49-53; 10th in NL, 4.0 GB in NL wild card)
Assets to watch: SP Frankie Montas, INF Jonathan India, RP Nick Martinez, RP Buck Farmer, RP Lucas Sims
The Reds appear to be one of those teams that should avoid falling into the trap of expanded playoffs. Cincinnati is still more than a few games out of the wild-card picture, with four teams ahead of them to leapfrog into a spot, with no clear indication that they could go deep into October against the other, superior NL contenders.
Montas and India are the most valuable players they could make available, with the Orioles potentially being a landing spot for the right-handed starter who could help stabilize their rotation. With Baltimore’s deep farm system as a trade partner, the Reds could quickly add to their future and build around homegrown star Elly De La Cruz. Teams are itching for position players, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Reds received a solid return for India, either.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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