Which QB would be drafted No. 1: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck?

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

If there’s a time to discuss hypotheticals in the NFL odds markets, now is that time. It’s late July, and still six weeks out from a legit regular-season game on which to place some bets on.

So why not put something out there to debate, even if it can’t actually happen?

Here’s the hypothetical: If Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams — all No. 1 overall picks and (arguably) considered the last three generational quarterback prospects — were in the same NFL Draft, which would be favored to go No. 1 overall?

Veteran oddsmaker Rex Beyers has a strong opinion, that may or may not surprise some.

“I don’t think it’s a discussion,” Beyers said. “Luck would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick in every draft since Peyton Manning in 1998.”

Beyers serves up his reasoning behind that opinion, and his thoughts on Rookie of the Year odds for this fun, hypothetical NFL Draft class.

Significant Drop-Off

In 2011, then-Indianapolis Colts quarterback Manning missed the entire season after having neck surgery. The Colts went a league-worst 2-14, securing the No. 1 overall pick in the process.

That allowed Indy to move on from Manning — he was released, then signed with the Denver Broncos — and draft Luck in 2012.

Luck proceeded to lead the Colts to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth.

Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, going to the Jacksonville Jaguars after their dismal 1-15 season. The Jags then went 3-14 in 2021-22 — dead last once again — in Lawrence’s rookie year.

Williams was just taken No. 1 overall by the Chicago Bears in this past draft, so his impact is still to be determined.

“I’d say Luck is No. 1, Lawrence is No. 2 and Williams No. 3,” Beyers said. “And there’s a significant drop-off between No. 1 and No. 2, and a little drop-off between No. 2 and No. 3. Go back and see how bad the Colts were in 2011.”

How big is the drop-off in terms of betting odds?

Beyers said he’d make Luck a hefty -700 favorite to go No. 1 overall between that trio. That means it would take a $700 bet to profit $100 ($800 total payout).

On the flip side, Lawrence would be +650 and Williams +1000 to go No. 1. So it would only take a $100 bet on Lawrence to clear $650 in profit ($750 total payout) and $100 on Williams to profit $1,000 ($1,100 total payout).

Luck’s issue was staying healthy, and that’s what people tend to remember. He missed the entire 2017 season (torn labrum) and retired in August 2019. But Beyers remembers a generational talent.

“He’s by far one of the best quarterbacks of my lifetime. But he just didn’t have a chance to succeed at a higher level, because of the front office and the talent around him,” Beyers said. “There was an unwillingness to draft people who would keep Luck on his feet.

“Go back 25 years, and there would be no question Andrew Luck goes No. 1 in every draft. That’s how strongly I feel about that.”

Second and Third

Beyers doesn’t have nearly that kind of praise for Lawrence or Williams. As noted above, the Jags were 3-14 in 2021-22, with Lawrence as the season-long starter. Lawrence took a step forward in his second year, with the Jags going 9-8, then getting a wild card win.

But with much higher expectations last season, Jacksonville again went 9-8 and missed the playoffs.

“Lawrence was really good at Clemson. He was well-coached and had really good raw skills,” Beyers said. “Now, he’s been there in Jacksonville long enough. I still don’t think the game has slowed down enough for him.”

Williams’ rookie year remains to be seen, but Beyers certainly doesn’t put the former USC standout in the same stratosphere as Luck.

“I’ve watched Williams play enough. The talent is definitely there,” he said. “But USC never played against very good defenses. NFL-wise, is he ready? I’m not sure.”

And Chicago’s track record enters Beyers’ thought process, as well.

“The Bears took a can’t-miss guy three years ago, and look where they are,” Beyers said, alluding to QB Justin Fields, taken No. 11 overall in 2021. “Is Williams another can’t-miss? We’ll see.”

Rookie of the Year

Beyers rightly noted that, when talking about the No. 1 overall draft pick, you’re also usually talking about the worst team in football the previous season. So it’s already a challenging situation for a rookie QB.

Indianapolis finished last in the 2011-12 season, and Jacksonville was last in the 2020-21 season. Chicago was not the worst team last season, going 7-10. The Bears got the No. 1 pick by way of a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers.

“There are extenuating circumstances in all these cases. If the Bears make the playoffs this season, they weren’t as far out last season as the Colts were in Luck’s rookie year,” Beyers said.

If the question revolved around the Rookie of the Year odds, this would be a much closer race than No. 1 overall pick odds. So, who would be favored between Luck, Lawrence and Williams for ROY? Beyers would put the odds at Luck +130, Lawrence +180 and Williams +225.

“That’s because it’s just one year. I’m certain Luck is the far better option for a franchise over the course of many years,” Beyers said. “With a smaller sample size, more random things can happen in the first year.”

But all things being equal, Beyers’ affinity for Luck is unchanged.

“If those three quarterbacks came into the NFL tomorrow, under the same circumstances, I’d be really surprised if Luck wasn’t Rookie of the Year,” Beyers said. “He took the Colts to the playoffs. He could do the same thing tomorrow, if they re-created it now.

“It’s hard for me to believe those other two could win Rookie of the Year over Luck.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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