The first AP Top 25 poll of the 2024 college football season is out, so bettors are getting their first look at the teams that pollsters project are ahead of the pack.
There were no surprises regarding the top four teams.
As expected, the top four included Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas.
These first rankings also mirror the current championship futures.
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At +300, Georgia is at the top of the betting board to win it all again in 2024, followed by the Buckeyes at +380. The Ducks are third in the AP poll and third on the board at +750. The Longhorns, at +850, are both fourth in title futures and in the AP.
After that upper tier, the debates begin — especially about which teams are being over-hyped and undervalued.
To identify which teams are the most overrated and underrated from a betting perspective, we compared the odds against the AP Top 25 poll and FOX Sports’ RJ Young‘s Ultimate 134 ranking.
Let’s dive into the fun.
Most overrated teams by title odds: Arizona, Oklahoma State
Arizona has a quarterback-wide receiver duo that FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt said could be the best in the nation in 2024. That seemed to impress AP Top 25 voters; they ranked the Wildcats No. 21 in the preseason poll.
Oddsmakers, however, aren’t as impressed. Arizona’s +30000 odds to win the title are currently tied for 31st in the nation.
But, Young ranked the Wildcats 23rd in his Ultimate 134 ranking.
The Wildcats were one of the big surprises in college football last season. They went 10-3 as quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan lit up opponents.
Now they are moving from the Pac-12 to the Big 12, with a new coach leading the way. Brent Brennan replaced Jedd Fisch, who left to become the coach of Washington.
Arizona wasn’t the only Big 12 team that might be viewed as overranked in the first AP poll through the lens of oddsmakers, though.
Oklahoma State is ranked 17th, but its title odds are a lengthy +25000 — tied for 24th in the nation.
While the betting odds suggested the Cowboys were overranked by seven spots, Young actually ranked Oklahoma State 15th in his Ultimate 134.
Most overrated team by projected win total: Arizona
Arizona is also viewed as the most overrated team in the preseason Top 25 when you compare them to the projected win totals.
The Wildcats’ 7.5-win total is tied for 34th among FBS teams.
Beyond Arizona, Michigan is the second-most overrated team in the preseason Top 25 if you were to look at it through the projected win total lens.
The Wolverines are ranked ninth, which is actually the lowest ranking for a defending champion since 2011. But their 8.5-win total is tied for 18th among FBS teams. It’s also the lowest win total among teams ranked in the top 10.
Michigan lost many key members from its national title team. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was among 13 Wolverines players to be selected in the draft and head coach Jim Harbaugh also left for the NFL.
Several analysts have lauded Michigan’s talent on defense this season, which is likely the key reason why it was ranked in the top 10. But the Wolverines have a brutal schedule, with three games against teams ranked in the top four in the preseason poll.
Where was Michigan ranked eighth in Young’s Ultimate 134?
Eighth.
CFB Preview: Why to fade Michigan, Penn State, Ole Miss
Most underrated teams by title odds: Texas A&M, LSU
Many debates over the years have been centered around whether the SEC is overrated or not — especially when it comes to the polls. But according to the title odds, a couple of SEC teams were among the most underrated teams in the first AP Top 25 poll of the season.
Texas A&M was ranked 20th in the first poll, which is seven spots lower than where it sits on the title odds board (13th) at +4000.
Young ranked Texas A&M 22nd in his Ultimate 134.
The Aggies made a pretty big change this offseason, hiring Duke‘s Mike Elko to replace Jimbo Fisher. Elko won 17 games at Duke over the last two seasons after it was among the bottom teams in the ACC when he took over.
The Aggies also hope to get a healthy season out of quarterback Conner Weigman, who impressed in 2023 before suffering a season-ending foot injury after four games.
Meanwhile, LSU was ranked 13th in the AP Top 25. That’s six spots lower than where it’s listed on the title betting board, where it’s tied for the seventh-best odds to win the CFP at +1800.
Brian Kelly has to replace Jayden Daniels and his talented receivers in Baton Rouge this season. But the Tigers have some believers among the oddsmakers with Garrett Nussmeier taking over at quarterback.
Young is also among the believers, ranking LSU at No. 7 in his Ultimate 134.
Fun fact, FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich is picking LSU to win it all!
Most underrated team by projected win total: Liberty
Believe it or not, Liberty is tied for the highest win total in the FBS entering the season. Its win total is set at 10.5 wins entering 2024.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, its price on Over 10.5 wins is currently -138, which is the highest among the teams who have a win total set at 10.5 wins (Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas).
Oddsmakers project Liberty to have a big season, but the Flames weren’t included in the first AP Top 25 poll of the season.
While unranked, they did receive votes. It was unofficially ranked 31st in the poll as a result, trailing just Boise State for the most votes received by teams in the Group of 5 conferences.
Liberty, who went undefeated in the regular season and won Conference USA last year, is likely getting a boost in its win total due to its schedule. It doesn’t have any teams ranked in the Top 25 on its schedule this season and no other team from Conference USA received votes in the first poll.
Young ranked Liberty 42nd in his ultimate 134 rankings, while FOX Sports host Colin Cowherd predicted that the Flames will make the 12-team playoff.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
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