There are some electrifying matchups on tap for NFL Week 2. And with so much live action for us to put our dollars behind, you might be overwhelmed deciding what to wager.
That’s where I come in.
Check out my best bets for this weekend’s slate of games, along with a teaser that I like.
(All times ET)
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SUNDAY, Sept. 15
Buccaneers @ Lions (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
My initial reaction was that Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to keep up with the Lions, as Detroit’s secondary — despite making good offseason acquisitions — is going to take time to work out the kinks. But then I saw the Tampa injury report.
Star safety Antonio Winfield, who leads the Bucs’ secondary, is out for a few weeks. So it’s just a mess. And Detroit’s run game should be clicking as well against Tampa Bay’s front seven, which gave up 138 yards to Washington (although quarterback Jayden Daniels did stack rushing yards in garbage time).
Week 2 is always dangerous, as overreactions happen. The Lions were -3 on the look-ahead line last week before re-opening at -6.5. It sometimes touches 7, and then there’s buy-back on Tampa. Be ready to sweat Baker and the backdoor.
PICK: Detroit (-6.5) to win by 7 points or more
Colts @ Packers (1 p.m. FOX and FOX Sports app)
I hit this early in the week before it dipped below the key number of three.
Yes, even with Malik Willis likely starting for the Packers, I’m backing Green Bay here.
It’s less about the QB and more about the number. The Packers were -5 on the look-ahead line, and after Jordan Love’s MCL injury was announced, this flipped to the Colts being favored by a field goal.
What? An 8-point swing? That’s just far too much.
Are the Packers in trouble if Jordan Love misses time?
I don’t trust Willis to throw the ball down the field, but he might not have to. Gus Bradley loves a cover-3 defense and blitzed at the lowest percentage in the NFL last season. Willis spent two seasons in Tennessee, and even though he didn’t throw any passes against the Colts, prepping for the Bradley defense four times should give him a head start on this one.
Indy corner Juju Brents went on IR. Safety Julian Blackmon has a shoulder injury. Both these players heading to the practice squad let us know the severity of the injuries.
It’s a pass for me at +2.5, but I’ll take the 3.
PICK: Packers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Giants @ Commanders (1 p.m. FOX and FOX Sports app)
Historically, Week 2 favors the underdogs, as the masses overreact to what happened in Week 1.
The markets know everyone bets favorites, and the value is in the ugly teams. Does it get much uglier than putting after-tax dollars on Daniel Jones? He’s thrown more pick-sixes (three) than touchdowns (2) since signing his lucrative 4-year, $160 million deal.
Jones has always had success against Washington, going 5-1-1 with 11 total TDs and just three interceptions. After being confused against the aggressive Brian Flores defense (12 blitzes last week), you wonder if Dan Quinn will try the same thing.
It backfired badly, as the Commanders blitzed 14 times and paid the price because they have possibly the worst secondary in the NFL.
PICK: Giants (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
NFL Week 2 Super Six: Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints
TEASER
Check out my teaser for Week 2 below:
Lions -7 to -1
Broncos +2.5 to +8.5
The Bengals blew up my teaser (and Survivor Pools everywhere) last week. Let’s roll with the favored Lions at home, as Jared Goff and Ben Johnson should dismember a secondary missing three starters — including star safety Antonio Winfield.
Bo Nix at home is a risky move, given how badly he fared on the road against Seattle last week. If Denver can control the line of scrimmage, it will have a chance to keep the game close. Back-to-back road games to open the season for the Steelers isn’t ideal, and we’ll see how conditioned they are to play at altitude this early in the season.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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