Why the Dodgers shouldn’t pitch Shohei Ohtani in the playoffs, per John Smoltz

Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

It’s one thing to intentionally walk a batter with a strong track record against a certain pitcher. It’s another to do it with no one on base.

In this week’s conversation with MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz, the Hall of Fame pitcher shared his thoughts on Gerrit Cole’s unique free pass to Rafael Devers, the Tigers’ surge, his level of concern with an Orioles team that has a losing record in the second half, the Dodgers’ chances to win it all with a makeshift rotation and which potential wild-card team has the best chance to hoist a World Series trophy.

Kavner: We’ll start with Red Sox–Yankees, and Gerrit Cole intentionally walking Rafael Devers with no one on base. How much did that surprise you and is there anyone you pitched against, that you would have considered doing such a thing?

Smoltz: Well, probably not with the bases empty. I understand that certain hitters are going to own certain pitchers, and I had my slew of them. I think it was a little surprising to maybe even Aaron Boone. If the opportunity presented itself where you needed to walk him, you could go ahead and walk him. But I was surprised with the bases empty. It might have changed the dynamics of the game. It obviously did, because that inning got away from Gerrit Cole. Anytime a pitcher has to openly admit, without saying a word about a hitter owning you, that ultimately is the statement without making a statement, that, “He’s owned me and I’m not going to deal with it.” Unfortunately, it did not work out well, to say the least, for Gerrit Cole.

Kavner: The Orioles had a losing record in July, a losing record in August. They’re 6-7 in September. How concerned are you about them?

Smoltz: Very concerned. I think some of the things that you’re starting to see offensively might be more concerning than the obvious, that they just don’t have the arsenal in the rotation because they’re not healthy. They have been a really good team for most of the year when they’re healthy, but offensively, they’ve shown some signs of what happened last year at the wrong time. I don’t think that will continue offensively, but you have to be a little bit concerned about where are they going to get the innings, and can their bullpen hold up?

I think that’s the biggest challenge for them as they’re nearing the postseason, wanting to punch that ticket. Certainly, they want to win the division, but it’s getting harder to do that three games back, given the circumstances of their rotation.

Kavner: Looking further at the AL wild-card picture, the Tigers, have been a roll since the start of last month and are now firmly in the mix. The Mariners are still right there. The Red Sox are hanging around. Who do you think has the best chance right now of sneaking in?

Smoltz: The team that has all the potential pitching and certainly can shut down a lot of hitters is Seattle, but they have yet to show any consistency on offense. The Tigers are pulling off a miracle here, because they’ve got the gauntlet on the schedule that they’re going through. It’s kind of a blessing, because those are the teams they need to catch anyway. They needed to beat Baltimore, they needed to beat Kansas City. They certainly need to beat Minnesota.

When you look at what they’re doing, I’m from there, and I said about two months ago, “they’re not that far away.” People in Detroit were like, “I don’t know.” I said, “I’m telling you, they’re not that far away.” You may not have a lot of household names yet, but they’re proving they’re not that far away. This is going to serve them extremely well for vital games in September that vault your team, not only possibly into the playoffs, but next year. I’m not a huge carryover fan of, “Oh, well, look what it did.” This is a different carryover. These are experimental games when it counts. If you’re not ever in it, and you win 20 of your last 30 games, I don’t think that has a carryover in the next year as much as it does if you’re winning games when it matters.

Even down the stretch, if you don’t get in on the last game, that is going to serve well for the Detroit Tigers. Pretty amazing what they’re doing.

Kavner: What has surprised people in Detroit most with the Tigers?

Smoltz: I think it’s the pitching. I don’t know that a lot of people could name anybody other than Tarik Skubal, and he’s elite. He’s going to win this Cy Young. I think it’s the pitching that’s come around and really fortified their chances. They’ve had some big-time rallies. They’ve had some offensive 1-0, 2-1 type games, and the back end of their bullpen is proving to be pretty legit.

When you start finding out about players, and they start making a name for themselves, the goal is to keep the name on the back of the jersey as an advantage and a leverage, because when the name becomes popular, or it becomes “uh oh” to the other hitter, you’ve got something.

You can always surprise somebody for a week or two weeks at a time, but when it becomes more of a norm, that is what teams are trying to build. They want an edge. The Cleveland Guardians have the greatest edge in the bullpen. They’ve got certain guys that come in and you go, “Oh, shoot,” and that’s what teams are trying to build. They’re trying to find young arms that can turn into those, “Oh, shoot” guys.

Kavner: All the more remarkable considering Jack Flaherty is now a Dodger. He’s also been basically the only healthy arm. Yashinobu Yamamoto is back, but after the Tyler Glasnow news, do you think they currently have enough to go all the way?

Smoltz: I think they can. It’s that argument that everybody makes year to year, can you single-handedly go in with a fragmented rotation and rely on your bullpen? Yes. Is it the formula for success all the time? No way. I think that the teams that are best armed for the playoffs have the best chances — and they could still get beat. But think about what has to happen if you only have 2.5 starters, much like what the Texas Rangers did last year. They proved with a couple hot guys, they could do it, but offensively, they slugged their way to a World Series championship.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have that capability to slug you to death, but they’re going to need that more so if they don’t have their rotation in order. So, yes, the longest answer to the question is yes, they can win a World Series this way. But I’m sure that’s not what their management had ideas on when it came to this time of the year.

Kavner: It still seems like a long shot here, but if Shohei Ohtani were physically ready in October, could you see any scenario where you would bring him out of the bullpen?

Smoltz: Not in this day in age, not any way to put him in that position. You’re just flirting with the highest adrenaline rush that you could possibly have. If you said to me that he could do this in early September and get his feet wet in that regard, I’d say yes. But absolutely not under these circumstances, with what they’re paying him next year.

Kavner: Which team not currently winning its division do you think is maybe best equipped to make a deep October run?

Smoltz: I still think that the Kansas City Royals are dangerous. For that matter, the New York Mets are dangerous. I know they have a one-game lead on the Atlanta Braves, but they’re starting to put things together in a complete form that we didn’t see earlier in the year.

San Diego probably is my front-runner, though, because they have a great bullpen and they have a really good starting rotation. San Diego is scary, and their offense combined with their bullpen gives them a great chance to make a deep run. They’ve been there, and they were able to knock off the Dodgers in the playoffs, which definitely helps when you have a rivalry like those two in the division.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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