The biggest surprise of the NFL through two weeks is undeniably the 2-0 Saints, who have scored a whopping 91 points and registered blowout wins over the hapless Panthers (47-10, predictable) and the Cowboys (44-19, stunning).
The Saints, who had a win total of 9.5 last year, massively underachieved and then didn’t do much in the offseason, but had a win total of 7.5 this season.
They opened the season as longshots to win the Super Bowl at +10000.
But two wins later, the number has shrunk all the way to +3500. This is obviously a horrible time to bet New Orleans, because if you liked the Saints before the season, then you should have bet it. If you bet them now at +3500, all of the value is gone.
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Sure, maybe the Saints continue this hot start this week against the Eagles, and then the discussion becomes, “Can the Saints play at home in the Super Bowl?”
New Orleans has a favorable schedule, and assuming it can handle two cold-weather outdoor games in December (@ Giants, @ Packers), there’s a world where the Saints are in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Again, it’s early. The league has never seen Saints OC Klint Kubiak call plays before, so once there is tape on what New Orleans is doing, expect defenses to adjust.
Can this offensive line hold up? Let’s wait to see how Dennis Allen performs in a close game when the fourth quarter matters.
Historically, those have not gone well for him.
The smart move on Super Bowl futures after two weeks is buying teams low off a loss. The Lions haven’t looked crisp. The Bengals are 0-2. The Packers QB is injured.
Don’t overreact to the Saints start and flush your money. They aren’t winning the Super Bowl.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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