We’re moving right along into NFL Week 4, and last week’s matchups gave us a good lens into what we should expect for the upcoming slate.
For example, the Browns still stink, so that gives me an idea of how I want to bet their matchup with the Raiders — especially considering how Las Vegas got embarrassed in Week 3.
And then we saw the Broncos finally come to life. Can they do it again two weeks in a row?
Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 4.
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NFL Week 4 Picks
Sunday, Sept. 29
BRONCOS @ JETS (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
This number is too high (Jets -7.5) for the total being under 40 (38.5 as of Tuesday).
The Jets are coming off a Thursday Night Football win against the stinky Patriots, while the Broncos offense finally came alive against the Bucs on Sunday in a big upset win.
Denver’s offense started slowly in its first two games, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix getting his first two NFL starts. He was not very good, completing only 59% of passes with no touchdowns and four interceptions.
However, last weekend against Tampa Bay, Nix completed nearly 70% of his passes, in what appeared to look like a functional offense. As a matter of fact, it looked like Nix had gotten better.
Now, by no means am I saying the Broncos offense good, but it is on the right track.
Denver is facing a Jets defense that has some vulnerabilities when it’s not playing a poor offensive line like the Patriots have. New York’s run defense allows 4.8 yards per rush and doesn’t hit the passer as much as expected.
I think the Broncos will have something for the Jets — or at least enough to keep the game close.
On the other side, the Jets offense is clearly improving. It is ninth in EPA and has protected Rodgers, but the Broncos defense is better than it gets credit for. It is fifth in passing-defense EPA, with the third-highest pressure rate.
If Patrick Surtain is able to stop Garrett Wilson, the Jets offense might stall a bit. Also, the Jets’ right tackle is out and is being replaced with a rookie who’s not ideal for that position.
I don’t think the Broncos will win, but I like them to cover.
PICK: Broncos (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points, or win outright
Bo Nix leads Broncos offense past Buccaneers in dominant 26-7 win
CHIEFS @ CHARGERS (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
I’ve watched every Chiefs game since 2016, and I can tell you how this game will go.
The Chargers will be without quarterback Justin Herbert, both offensive tackles, Derwin James (via suspension) and Joey Bosa.
It will be 17-13 with four minutes left.
The Chiefs will have the ball, needing one first down to win the game. That’s how all their games have gone recently because, outside of beating the Dolphins when it’s negative degrees in Arrowhead, this team does not blow teams out.
There are two reasons the Chiefs don’t blow out their opponents. First, offensively, they are not as explosive as previous versions of this team. It takes them longer to score, and without the explosive plays, they settle for field goals more often than in years past.
The second thing is this: They like to B.S. too much against bad teams. They know their end goal is the postseason, so they just kind of play like meh in several regular-season games.
Since the Chargers won’t have their best players on the field, this will be one of those games.
I do not want to take Chargers +8 because the Chiefs could win this game 20-10, 24-14 or something along those lines. The Bolts are going to want to run the ball, keep the quarterback clean and bleed out the clock. Without its tackles, L.A.’s offensive plan will be tougher to execute.
The Chargers also don’t have the receivers to throw the ball to and hope for chunk plays if the run game isn’t working.
I like the Under in this game.
PICK: Under 39 points scored by both teams combined
Did the Chiefs get a lucky break with the missed PI call in the game?
BROWNS @ RAIDERS (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Raiders were embarrassed by the Panthers on Sunday. It got so bad that Antonio Pierce called out players for making “business decisions.”
NFL players are proud, and being embarrassed on the field and by the head coach in the media is something that will motivate them to play better against the Browns. You do not want to be the guy the coach is calling out.
There’s an accountability in locker rooms. We saw this to an extent last weekend, with the Lions playing better after Dan Campbell said that it was all his fault after their Week 2 loss, and then the Panthers responding to the benching of a quarterback.
The Raiders will come out fast against the lifeless Browns.
Cleveland is bad at quarterback and at offensive line right now. I don’t think this is a get-right spot for the Browns. Playing the Giants should have been that game.
The Raiders have two outstanding pass rushers, even if Maxx Crosby’s ankle is a tad sore. And they will overwhelm Deshaun Watson.
I like the Raiders to cover the first half.
PICK: Raiders (+1.5) to trail by fewer than 1.5 points at halftime, or lead
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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