Time flies when you’re having fun, and we must be having a blast, because we are somehow already on to Week 7 of the NFL season.
Last week, we did not see the usual NFL Sunday madness. Favorites dominated the day, except for a couple of very minor upsets, like the Colts beating the Titans and the Bears beating the Jaguars in London.
In a year in which the biggest favorites have been routinely upset week after week, the results last week were mostly what we’d expect. However, predictability doesn’t usually last too long in the NFL, so beware of getting too comfortable thinking that the favorites will continue their success heading into this week.
Additionally, there was not much movement in the MVP market over the past several days. Patrick Mahomes is still the favorite at 3-1 odds ($10 bet pays $30). The Chiefs remain 5-0 coming off their bye, and now they head to San Francisco for a Super Bowl rematch with the 49ers.
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Other top candidates — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud — all had solid performances in their teams’ victories. If the 49ers can exact some measure of revenge and win Sunday against the Chiefs, would such a high-profile win catapult 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to the top of the MVP odds? That is certainly something to keep an eye on.
In the meantime, there is one bet out there that is too good to pass up.
New England Patriots Under 4.5 wins (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Patriots were a good story in the first couple of weeks of the young season. They went to Cincinnati in Week 1 and pulled off a big upset against the Bengals, then returned home to host the Seahawks, where they played competitively but lost in overtime.
The team many thought would be the worst in the league didn’t look so bad early on. Well, that seems like a long time ago now for Patriots fans.
Since the upset win, the team is 0-5. The Pats’ last four losses have come by a combined 63 points (15.8 points per game). To make matters worse, included in those losses is a blowout to the Jets, which weeks later looks especially bad, considering how the Jets have played since.
Among those losses is also a home loss to the Dolphins, who without quarterback Tua Tagavailoa have not looked like a functional team in any other game.
At 1-5, the Patriots would have to somehow cobble together four more wins in their last eleven games to go over this 4.5 total. Their next few games are winnable, as they play the Jaguars in London and then host the Jets. However, even in those games, the Patriots are slated to be nearly a full touchdown underdog.
Former Vikings and Cardinals coach, the late Dennis Green, once had an epic rant after a tough loss and shouted “They are who we thought they were” about the opponent that had just beaten his team.
After a promising start, it’s apparent the Patriots are who we thought they were and that is a team that’s definitely not winning five games.
It’s hard to see New England going 4-7 or better the rest of the way. I think under 4.5 wins is a great bet to make.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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