NFL Week 7 odds: ‘Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda’ parlay; five bets that would’ve won big

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Week 7 odds are in the rearview mirror, but the public betting masses will look back on them fondly. It was another good week for recreational bettors. Per usual, there’s plenty of people playing Monday morning quarterback.

So we at FOX Sports are gonna play Tuesday morning quarterback for the sports betting crowd. If there’s one thing public bettors love, it’s wagering on parlays. And that’s understandable. Betting a little to win a lot is appealing, like the lottery, or in this instance, perhaps a mini-lottery. However, remember this, too: Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend.

That being said, what if I told you that betting $10 on: a two-time Pro Bowl running back to score first; the 2019 leader in rushing touchdowns to score first; the winner of the last two Super Bowls to win straight up; a team that made the AFC Divisional round to cover a three-point spread; and the Sunday night game to go over 40 points would profit you over $3,000?

In Week 7, it would have. So with that in mind, here’s this week’s edition of …

Woulda Coulda Shoulda

Wouldn’t it have been nice to turn 10 bucks into three grand or thereabouts? The following five-team parlay in DraftKings Sportsbook’s NFL Week 7 odds would’ve done just that:

Saquon Barkley +400 to score the first touchdown in the Eagles–Giants game
Aaron Jones +650 to score the first TD in the Vikings–Lions games
Chiefs moneyline +120 vs. 49ers
Texans +3 (+100) vs. Packers
Jets–Steelers Over 40.5 total points (-105)

For Barkley, this was the revenge spot against the Giants, and at MetLife Stadium, no less. You had to surmise the Eagles running back was looking to have a huge game. And he did, with 17 carries for a hefty 176 yards.

Barkley also had the game’s first touchdown, six minutes into the first quarter.

Jones found the end zone even faster for Minnesota, with a 34-yard TD run just 3:17 into the game against Detroit.

Kansas City was an extremely popular public play on the moneyline in NFL Week 7 odds. That’s the norm when Patrick Mahomes & Co. are underdogs, rare as that is. The Chiefs went on the road and beat San Francisco 28-18, in a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl.

The biggest sweat on this hypothetical five-leg parlay: Houston beating the point spread. The Texans-Packers clash in Green Bay was close throughout. The Texans took a 22-21 lead on a field goal with 1:44 left, but lost 24-22 when the Pack got a field goal in the final seconds.

However, Houston was a 3-point underdog. So a 2-point loss was a winner for Texans point-spread bettors.

Prime-time games tend to draw more bets and money on the Over, even among two teams as offensively challenged as the Jets and Steelers have been this season. On Sunday night, the Over actually got there quite easily, with a Steelers touchsown early in the fourth quarter giving them a 30-15 lead.

Pittsburgh went on to win 37-15.

Add it all up, and you’ve got odds of +32114, or ostensibly 321/1. So that 10 bucks on a five-leg parlay turns a profit of $3,211.43. Don’t forget that 43 cents on the end!

To reiterate, there’s a reason the odds are so long on these types of bets. And bookmakers want nothing more than for you to add more and more legs to your parlay tickets.

So wager accordingly. If you’re looking to get a little more bang for your 10 or 20 bucks, then it’s fine to fire on these mini-lottery tickets. Just don’t be taking it from your kid’s lunch money, OK?

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.