When the season began, it would’ve been difficult to look at NFL Week 8 odds and say, “I can’t wait for that Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders game.”
Now, with both teams playing well above expectations behind rookie quarterbacks, it’s one of the better matchups on the docket. However, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels might have to sit with a rib injury, which certainly takes off some of the shine.
QB Caleb Williams’ Bears are now favored vs. the Commanders. But Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, cautioned not to overlook Washington.
“We’ve seen a stream of money coming in on the Bears. But I think that’s an overreaction,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that clash and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 8 betting nuggets.
Line Jumps The Fence
A week ago, on NFL lookahead lines, Washington was -1/-1.5 vs. Chicago. That was when this matchup was expected to be a battle of the Nos. 1 and 2 overall draft picks, in Williams and Daniels, respectively.
But on Sunday night, in the wake of Daniels’ rib injury, the point spread fell to pick ‘em, then to Bears -1. Midweek, Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite at Caesars Sports, with Daniels listed as questionable for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff.
“I don’t think we’re gonna see Daniels this week,” Feazel said, noting the line shift shows just how well-thought-of Daniels is this season. “The market is really giving Jayden his respect, even though backup Marcus Mariota seems to fit this system.”
Indeed.
When Daniels got hurt in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers, the Commanders led 10-0. In came Mariota, and Washington rumbled to a 40-7 victory, moving to 5-2 straight up (SU) and 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS).
Mariota was an efficient 18-for-23 for 205 yards passing, with two touchdowns, and he ran 11 times for 34 yards.
Chicago (4-2 SU/5-1 ATS) had its bye in Week 7.
“The only extra edge for the Bears is the bye week. And that Caleb Williams wants to prove himself and say, ‘Hey, I’m the No. 1,’” Feazel said. “We’re seeing more Bears action. But if the line gets to 3, we’ll see sharps buy in on the Commanders. It won’t be at 3 for long.”
Steelers, 49ers, Bengals land in Nick’s ‘Potentially Dangerous’ tier of Week 8
NFL Rocks On FOX
Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks is among Sunday’s highlight games, as well, with a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Buffalo is 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS, coming off a 34-10 home rout of Tennessee. Seattle (4-3 SU/2-4-1 ATS) halted a three-game losing streak by blowing out host Atlanta 34-14.
But the Seahawks could be minus star wideout DK Metcalf (knee). Metcalf didn’t practice Wednesday and probably won’t practice Thursday.
“The Seahawks are an underrated team. But losing DK this week, that’s certainly gonna make an impact,” Feazel said.
The Bills haven’t moved off -3 this week at Caesars, and Buffalo is unsurprisingly a popular play.
“We’re seeing some Bills and Under money,” Feazel said, noting the total dropped from 49 to 47. “I think they’re gonna continue betting the Bills, especially considering how good road favorites have been to the public lately.”
NFL Sharp Side
With the public betting masses stringing together strong Week 6 and Week 7 performances, it’s no surprise that sharp bettors took a hit in that same stretch.
Last week, professional bettor Randy McKay went 1-2, with Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. the New York Giants getting to the pay window.
In NFL Week 8 odds, McKay is jumping on the first game out of the gate: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.
He likes the home underdog Rams getting 3 points.
“This is a tough scheduling spot for Minnesota, coming off a close loss to a physical division rival,” McKay said, alluding to the Vikes’ home loss to Detroit in Week 7. “The Rams are more healthy, getting Cooper Kupp back. I think there’s some value in +3.”
But keep an eye on Kupp. Midweek, he’s the subject of trade rumors.
After successfully going against the Giants last week, McKay is taking the G-Men this week. He’s on New York +7 and would probably still recommend +6.5.
“It might be best to wait here, with this being Monday Night Football,” McKay said, pointing out that midweek, the Giants are +6.5, but they could get back to +7 by Monday.
McKay also foresees a Steelers letdown after their 37-15 Sunday night win over the New York Jets.
“Pittsburgh is coming off its best game, and the Giants are better on the road than at home,” he said.
Who needs the win more: Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy?
Feazel also weighed in on a Sunday night marquee-ish matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. The top two teams in the NFC last season are underperforming this season, with Dallas 3-3 SU and ATS, and San Fran 3-4 SU and ATS.
The 49ers limp into this key Week 8 clash. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk suffered a torn ACL and MCL in a Week 7 home loss to Kansas City. So his season is over. Fellow wideout Deebo Samuel left that game early and was then diagnosed with pneumonia, though he might play Sunday night.
Wideout Jauan Jennings (hip), tight end George Kittle (foot) and running back Jordan Mason (ankle) are all questionable.
“The sentiment on the 49ers is waiting for them to show up. And they haven’t shown up consistently,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing Cowboys money this week. You’re always gonna see Cowboys money, no matter how they’re playing.”
Feazel touched on one more matchup:
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals: In a 1 p.m. ET Sunday start, Cincinnati opened -3 and is down to -2.5 at Caesars. “We’re seeing mostly Eagles money in this spot. Also, more Eagles money parlayed to the Under.” That said, the total has bounced around a bit, opening at 48.5, bottoming out at 46.5 Sunday night, then climbing to 48 by Wednesday afternoon.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are no reported six-figure plays yet in NFL Week 7 odds. But trust me, they’re coming. Three notable wagers at Caesars Sports:
- $24,000 Bills -3 vs. Seahawks. To win $21,818 (total payout $45,818).
- $12,000 Seahawks moneyline +143 vs. Bills. To win $17,160 (total payout $29,160)
- $10,000 Jaguars +4.5 vs. Packers. To win $9,091 (total payout $19,091)
And a quick look back to a leftover from Monday night.
How’d you like to have had this parlay ticket in your hand heading into the Ravens–Buccaneers/Chargers–Cardinals games?
All the Fanatics Sportsbook customer needed was a Derrick Henry touchdown — which seems like a lead-pipe cinch every week — and for James Conner to find the end zone, as well.
It took a while for Henry to hit paydirt, but he did, on a 13-yard TD catch in the fourth quarter of Baltimore’s 41-31 road win. So the bettor was down to one last need, to turn a $20 free wager into $115,550.
Alas, Conner couldn’t reach the end zone in the Cardinals’ 17-15 home win.
Oof.
May you all have better luck with NFL Week 8 odds.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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