Accounting for injuries is part of what makes sports betting such a challenge. That’s certainly the case for the marquee game in college football Week 10 odds.
Ohio State vs. Penn State — which, by the way, is the FOX Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday — features uncertainty on the Nittany Lions’ sideline. Quarterback Drew Allar (knee) is questionable as the weekend approaches, and he might be a game-time decision.
However, bettors feel fairly confident at the moment.
“We’re still waiting on the news. But the money coming in is suggesting Allar is gonna play,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
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Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Penn State odds and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
College Football Rocks On FOX
Week 10 brings one of the biggest Big Noon Kickoffs of this season, when the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions square off at noon ET. Penn State is a perfect 7-0 straight up (SU) but 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while Ohio State is 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS.
Caesars Sports opened Ohio State as a 4-point road favorite, and the first move was up to Buckeyes -4.5. However, the line then fell to Buckeyes -3.5, where it has been most of the week.
“It’s one-way action on Penn State with the point spread,” Feazel said, while noting that action on the total runs somewhat counter to that. “The total has gone down, which doesn’t correlate to Allar playing.”
The total opened at 46.5 and climbed to 47.5 on Sunday, but it has since fallen back to 45.
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone got there last week with LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M, as the Tigers rolled to a 38-23 victory. This week, he’s going with a lower-profile game but with a team that has a very high-profile win this season.
Vanderbilt, a perennially dreadful team, is 5-3 SU and an even better 6-2 ATS. The Commodores shocked Alabama 40-35 as 23-point home underdogs in Week 5.
Last week, Vandy rallied from a 21-7 second-quarter to make things interesting vs. Texas. The Commodores were 17-point home ‘dogs and lost 27-24.
This week, Vandy is a 7-point underdog at Auburn (3-5 SU/4-4 ATS) in a 12:45 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. The Commodores, behind emotionally charged quarterback Diego Pavia, are 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season, including three outright victories as double-digit ‘dogs.
Stone described Vanderbilt as a public underdog against Auburn. But that’s not keeping him off the Commodores.
“Pavia just seems to bask in the underdog role,” Stone said. “Plus, Vanderbilt is a pretty solid football team all the way around. Coach Clark Lea has the Commodores believing. This is a season of firsts for Vanderbilt in some regards, so I’ll stay on board until they run out of steam.”
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ACC Action
The ACC has multiple matchups this week that will impact College Football Playoff odds. Among them: No. 18 Pittsburgh vs. No. 20 SMU. The Panthers are 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS, while the Mustangs are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS.
Caesars opened Southern Methodist at -7 on Sunday, went to -8 on Monday, then returned to -7 on Tuesday morning. On Tuesday afternoon, SMU moved to -7.5, which is where the line stood late Wednesday night.
“A lot more Pitt money has come in, and even more so Pitt on the moneyline,” Feazel said, noting there’s significant action on the underdog to win outright. “It’s no surprise. Pitt seems to get money every week. It’s an exciting team, an explosive offense that scores a lot of points.
“Both teams score a lot of points. So bettors are playing the Over, too.”
That said, the total is actually down slightly, opening at 59.5 and sitting at 58.5 late Wednesday night.
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Florida-Georgia Line
Florida vs. Georgia has often been a monster matchup. The Gators’ struggles in recent years have taken off the shine. But heading into Saturday’s neutral-site clash in Jacksonville, the Florida Gators (4-3 SU and ATS) have won three of their last four games while going 4-0 ATS.
The one outright loss was against a very good Tennessee team. The visiting Gators took the Vols to overtime before losing 23-17. Feazel reminds that if nothing else, Florida is battle-tested.
“Florida has one of the most brutal schedules in college football history, and they’re really hanging in there. I expect this to be a pretty competitive game,” he said.
Georgia (6-1 SU/2-5 ATS) opened as a 17-point favorite at Caesars and is down to -16. But contrary to that move, early bettors are playing the favorite.
“We’re seeing mostly one-way action on Georgia covering that 16,” Feazel said.
Ohio State vs. Penn State: CFB Week 10 best bets, odds & predictions
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
By late Wednesday night, there wasn’t much to report in the way of major wagers on college football Week 10 odds. But the Ohio State-Penn State showdown has one notable wager so far at Caesars: $15,000 on Penn State +3.5.
If the Nittany Lions can stay within a field goal, then that customer will profit $13,636, for a total payout of $28,636.
Caesars also took an $11,000 bet on Indiana -7.5 vs. Michigan State. The Hoosiers are 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS this season, tied with BYU for the No. 1 spread-covering mark in the nation. If Indiana covers on the road Saturday, then the Caesars customer will nab $10,000 profit ($21,000 total payout).
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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