When it comes to betting on this weekend’s games, you’ll notice a trend with my picks: I like the favorites.
Yes, I’m fading the Cowboys. I’m even backing the somewhat banged-up Rams — with one caveat.
NFL Week 9, be kind to us bettors. Let’s dive into it.
(All times ET)
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SUNDAY, NOV. 3
Chargers @ Browns (1 p.m., CBS)
Are the Chargers good? We don’t really know yet.
Their wins have come against bottom feeders (plus Denver) who have a combined record of 10-22. And a lot of that is bolstered by Denver’s 5-3 record, which has come against bad teams.
However, the Chargers have had injury issues. From Justin Herbert to two wide receivers to Gus Edwards to the offensive line and Joey Bosa (again) — it’s been a mess. And this week, they appear to be as healthy as they have been since Week 1.
Their run defense has been incredible this season. It’s led by nose tackle Poona Ford, who is having the best year of his career as defenses focus on edge rushers Khalil Mack and Bosa. Ford has a mismatch against struggling Cleveland center Ethan Pocic.
Whereas L.A. is getting healthy, the Browns came away from the win against the Ravens with some tough injuries, and it looks like they’ll be down several key starters this week — tight end David Njoku (leads Cleveland in yards per game receiving), top cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion) and leading tackler Jeremiah Owusu-Koraoah (neck).
After the emotional win over the rival Ravens, with a bye week on deck and pristine weather expected, the Chargers will show up here and rattle Jameis Winston. I expect them to pick up a solid road victory.
PICK: Chargers (-1) to win by more than 1 point
Will the Cowboys most likely have an A-Game or F-Game vs. Falcons?
Cowboys @ Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Injuries are impacting this line, which has been toggling between 2.5 and 3 all week, based on whether the Cowboys were going to get some defensive stars onto the field (DaRon Bland, Micah Parsons). This was briefly -2.5 Atlanta early in the week, but here we are on Friday, and it’s headed toward -3.5 because Parsons and Bland haven’t practiced at all.
I don’t get the Dallas love. The Cowboys’ wins are against Cleveland and the Giants, and then against the Steelers on a last-second touchdown. This isn’t a great spot for them. They’re coming off that trip to mighty San Francisco and sandwiched between a massive home game against the Eagles.
The Cowboys keep getting gashed by tight ends. Kyle Pitts already has as many touchdowns (3) as he had all of last season. They will likely be down their top two cornerbacks and that’s not ideal against Kirk Cousins. Dallas might be forced to play cover-3 zone, which Cousins has torched.
If Mike Zimmer’s defense goes with the single high safety and attempts man-to-man, the Falcons will bully the Cowboys at the line of scrimmage and run roughshod over them.
Finally, I cannot get past just how slow Dallas has looked indoors. That’s on both sides of the ball. Big D lost 44-19 to the Saints, lost 28-25 to the Ravens (at one point, trailed 28-6) and lost 47-9 to the Lions.
Dallas will score and the Over is worth a look, but I’m not sure how many stops the ‘Boys will get.
PICK: Falcons (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Blazin’ 5: Cowboys (+3), Packers (+2.5) snag upset wins, Rams (-1) beat Seattle in Week 9
Rams @ Seahawks (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
I felt much better about this seismic divisional matchup a few days ago, before Puka Nacua banged his knee on the turf and had to miss Friday’s practice.
When the Rams are at full strength with their big four — Stafford, Nacua, Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp — they are formidable offensively. Miss just one piece, and it falls apart. As of this publication, Puka is questionable for Sunday’s game.
Other signs point to the Rams. Last year, then-Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald schemed up one of the best defenses in the league. Except it struggled in the rain to contain the Rams Big Four in a 37-31 overtime thriller.
Macdonald has slightly inferior defensive talent in Seattle this year, and there’s no reason to think the Seahawks can hold the fully-formed Rams offense in check.
Can Seattle keep up? The Seahawks have ruled out WR DK Metcalf for the second week in a row, and it was obvious how much they missed him getting crushed by Buffalo. They’ve also ruled out TE Noah Fant.
The Rams defense did give up 41 to the Cardinals early in the season, but it was a young defense still working out the kinks after Aaron Donald’s offseason retirement.
If Nacua is a late scratch, toss this out. But with their Big Four, I like the Rams here.
PICK: Rams (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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