Two months ago, as the NFL season kicked off, if you would have perused the Week 10 schedule, your eyes probably would’ve been drawn to Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys. Or Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders wouldn’t have gotten much of a second thought.
“Ten weeks ago, if you would’ve told me this was a marquee matchup going into Week 10, I would’ve said you were crazy,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
But it’s a marquee matchup now, on the field and in Week 10 NFL odds. Along with being division leaders, both teams are among the best bets so far this season.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Steelers vs. Commanders and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 10 betting nuggets.
Covering The Number
Washington is 7-2 straight up (SU) and 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied for the best point-spread mark in the league. Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU and ATS, the fourth-best point-spread mark in the NFL.
Caesars opened the Commanders as 2.5-point home favorites and stood at -3 (even) as of late Wednesday night. That’s an indication that this line might return to Commanders -2.5.
“This is the matchup we’re looking forward to. T.J. Watt vs. Jayden Daniels,” Feazel said. “There’s genius coaching on both sides. And right now, we’re seeing more Steelers money.”
Which is interesting because Daniels has transformed Washington into a huge public darling this season. So don’t be surprised if a lot of the late action lands on the Commanders, heading into this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
NFL Rocks On FOX
One of the better matchups on FOX this week: San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Niners are hoping for the season debut of running back Christian McCaffrey, coming back from an Achilles issue.
San Fran nearly beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl last season. But the Niners are just 4-4 SU and ATS so far this year. Tampa Bay has similarly been injury-riddled and is 4-5 SU/5-4 ATS. However, the Bucs were quite competitive at Kansas City in the Week 9 Monday night game, losing 30-24 in overtime.
Caesars opened the 49ers -6 and initially climbed to -6.5, then receded to -5.5 by Tuesday morning. Late Wednesday night, San Francisco was again -6 for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET matchup.
“After the Monday night game, with the Bucs competing well, that’s why we saw the line moving toward Tampa Bay,” Feazel said. “But I’d guess we’re gonna need the Bucs. Money is mostly coming in on the Niners, and I don’t see that changing.”
Lions rank higher, Chiefs not scary but may go undefeated in Nick’s Tiers
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay has his eye on three games in the NFL Week 10 odds market. That includes the Thursday night clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.
McKay is on the Bengals as 6.5-point road underdogs, though he’d take +6, too.
“It’s a short week against a division rival,” McKay said, while also noting these two teams met in Week 5 in Cincinnati, with Baltimore getting a close win. “It was a 41-38 overtime game before. These two teams play close games, and Cincy gets back Tee Higgins.”
Four of the last six Bengals-Ravens meetings were one-score games. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday.
McKay also likes the Steelers +3 vs. the Commanders.
“Mike Tomlin is strong off the bye week. The move to Russell Wilson paid off, and now he gets an extra week to prepare,” McKay said. “Washington has been surprisingly good, but this is the best defense rookie QB Jayden Daniels has seen.”
Last week, McKay was on the Denver Broncos +9.5/+10 vs. the Baltimore Ravens, but Bo Nix and Co. had no answers in a 41-10 loss. However, that’s not keeping McKay off Denver this week as an 8.5-point road underdog vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday game.
“K.C. is coming off an overtime victory and doesn’t win by margin. It’s another division game where I like the ‘dog,” McKay said.
Is Bengals vs. Ravens a must-win for Cincinnati to keep playoff hopes alive?
Sunday Night Showdown
As we’ve noted in previous weeks, the Detroit Lions are a spread-covering machine. The Lions are 30-8 ATS — and an-almost-as-good 29-9 SU — since the middle of the 2022 season.
Detroit (7-1 SU and ATS) meets the Houston Texans (6-3 SU/3-6 ATS) in an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday. Caesars opened the Lions -4.5 and fell to -3 by Monday morning, with stops at -4/-3.5 along the way. On Wednesday afternoon, Detroit went to -3.5 again.
Feazel said a key for where the point spread goes from here is if Texans wideout Nico Collins returns. Collins (hamstring) went on the IR after getting hurt in Houston’s 23-20 home win over Buffalo in Week 5.
“We’re just waiting for some sort of info to come out on Collins. That’s really a line we’re monitoring, as far as which direction to go,” Feazel said, before addressing the betting so far. “We are seeing mostly Lions money, and that’s not a surprise. They are being treated as the best team in the NFL right now.
“The Lions are definitely the public side. We’ll likely need the Texans.”
No Dak For Dallas
The Dallas Cowboys won’t have QB Dak Prescott for at least the next four weeks, which could ruin a season that’s already not going well. Dallas (3-5 SU and ATS) hosts the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) in a 4:25 p.m. ET matchup Sunday.
Last week, the Eagles-Cowboys lookahead line at Caesars was Philly -2.5. When the game reopened on Sunday, it was Philly -6.5, and it reached -7.5 on Monday night before receding to -7 on Wednesday afternoon.
“The line last week would suggest Prescott is worth 5/5.5 points,” Feazel said. “It’s quite a bit of difference between Dak and Cooper Rush. As expected, it’s mostly Eagles money coming in.”
Can Cooper Rush lead Dallas Cowboys to UPSET vs. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles?
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There aren’t many big bets yet on NFL Week 10 odds. But as usual, they’ll be coming. They always do.
That said, Caesars Sports took one major wager on the Thursday night game: $110,000 on Bengals +6 at the Ravens. If underdog Cincinnati can cover that number, then the bettor will profit $100,000, for a $210,000 total payout.
And for what it’s worth, Feazel indicated that wager came from a sharp bettor.
We like smaller bets, too, particularly when they have the potential to pay big. Right now, there’s a DraftKings Sportsbook customer who has to be one of the biggest Kansas City Chiefs fans on the planet.
Early this year, using a $100 bonus bet — which is a free bet — the customer put together the following futures parlay:
- UConn to win March Madness
- Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals
- Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup Final
- Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series
- Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
The first four legs are in, on a parlay with odds of +353093 — or approximately 3531/1. If the Chiefs three-peat, then the customer clears a whopping $353,093.75 in profit.
How can you not root for that? In the meantime, here’s hoping all of you muster some modest wins this weekend. Enjoy the games.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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