We’re back over .500 and almost over the top.
How about that Indiana squad, though?
Sheesh.
I faded the Hoosiers for the first time all season, and it was fun holding a Michigan State +7.5 ticket for about 20 minutes, before Indiana flexed its muscles in East Lansing.
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Anyway, I’ve got three college football plays and two NFL wagers this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (23-22, -1.1 units)
Florida @ No. 5 Texas (-22.5, O/U 47.5)
Despite what Gators head coach Billy Napier says, I don’t expect quarterback DJ Lagway to play after suffering that hamstring injury against Georgia. It’s one thing to be at practice, it’s another thing to play on Saturday. This is a great spot for Texas off a bye week to flex its muscles and score a bunch of points. Big spreads and low totals tend to be bad news for the underdog.
PICK: Texas (-22.5) to win by more than 22.5 points
Michigan @ No. 8 Indiana (-14.5, O/U 49.5)
Whew, is this a big spread. Michigan was a two-touchdown favorite in the summer and now Indiana is a two-touchdown favorite. Crazy, isn’t it? Indiana’s offense gets the majority of credit for the team’s success, but I believe the Hoosiers defense deserves more flowers. Michigan should struggle to move the ball and I think we’re in for a game in the low 40s.
PICK: Under 49.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 9 BYU (-3, O/U 40.5) @ Utah
Enough with BYU already. Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White told me he’s got the Cougars ranked as the 28th-best team in the country in his ratings. That might be a smidge low at the end of the day, but we did see some very sharp money back the Utes at +4 and +3.5. Utah’s season hasn’t exactly gone as planned, but it is still a very physical team that’s tough to beat at home.
PICK: Utah (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
What happens if Drake Maye outplays Caleb Williams in Bears-Patriots?
Patriots @ Bears (-6, O/U 38.5)
The Bears are very good at beating bad teams. Just ask the Titans, Panthers, Jaguars and Rams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Star defensive end Montez Sweat is likely back for Chicago, which is troublesome for a New England offense that doesn’t have much talent. I loved to see sharp NFL bettor Andy Molitor make his true line closer to Chicago -9. Lay the wood.
PICK: Bears (-6) to win by more than 6 points
The #Ramily is getting louder and louder after squeaking out an overtime win against Seattle. Luckily for Los Angeles, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith threw two interceptions in the red zone and one was returned for 103 yards. Lucky, lucky, lucky. Miami’s offense is infinitely better with Tua Tagovailoa under center and I think the Rams’ D gets carved up on Monday.
PICK: Dolphins (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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