Another NFL week is on the horizon, which means we have another chance at winning some cash with our bets.
When I took a look at the Week 10 slate, there were three matchups that caught my eye. And in these games, I couldn’t help but give a leg up to the favorites.
One team, in particular, I couldn’t pass up on was Detroit.
But keep reading because I make a pretty strong case for why I’m backing the Commanders and Niners to win and cover.
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(All times ET)
Sunday, Nov. 10
STEELERS @ COMMANDERS (1 p.m., CBS)
The Steelers are going to be a rare public underdog on the road. Everything does line up for the Steelers here.
Can I interest you in some trends?
Mike Tomlin versus rookie quarterbacks is 25-6! He’s a smart defensive coach. Mike Tomlin off a bye is 13-4. Give him an extra week to game plan? Say goodnight. Mike Tomlin as an underdog since Ben Roethlisberger retired? 20-9 against the spread (ATS).
You get the point.
You know what those numbers don’t take into account? Washington’s 2024 season.
The Commanders have been the league’s best story, an offensive machine that has played 36 quarters and amazingly scored in 34 of them. They’re 11-for-11 on fourth down!
It will be the best offense the Steelers have seen since the opener, when they faced gimpy Kirk Cousins. And how do you beat the terrific Pittsburgh pass rush led by T.J. Watt? You have to have a scrambling quarterback. Lamar Jackson has given the Steelers fits with his ability to get out of the pocket and pick up chunks of yardage. In four games against the Steelers, he’s registered 45, 55, 65 and 70 yards rushing.
And since everyone likes trends — or loves to hate them — rookie QBs are 11-0 when favored this season. The market can’t seem to catch up to the Commanders.
PICK: Commanders (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Can Tampa Bay Buccaneers pull off upset vs. San Francisco 49ers?
49ERS @ BUCCANEERS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Last year, San Francisco limped into the bye with three straight losses, and stars such as Trent Williams, Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel were all dinged up or had missed some time (Purdy was concussed against Minnesota).
S.F. came out of the bye having to travel to Florida to meet Jacksonville. The Jags had won five straight and were 6-2. The healthy 49ers destroyed the Jags 34-3 and proceeded to peel off seven wins in a row.
This year, the 49ers were riddled with injuries heading into the bye, have alternated wins and losses and now head to Florida again.
With Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and most importantly, Christian McCaffrey back — coupled with all of Tampa’s problems — how can you not love the 49ers here?
The line started at 6, then went down to 5, then back up to 6, and now it’s headed to 7. The Bucs are coming off an overtime loss on Monday night in which their defense was on the field for 83 plays against K.C. Now they have to face the 49ers.
Not only is Tampa’s defense leaking oil, but the offense is an injured mess. It has been torched in the last three games by Jackson, Kirk Cousins and Pat Mahomes to the tune of 12 touchdowns allowed and 0 interceptions.
This could be a 40-17-type beating.
PICK: 49ers (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen headline midseason MVP award rankings
LIONS @ TEXANS (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Early in the week, I was set to fire on the home ‘dog, the division leader getting more than a field goal at home.
It was getting Nico Collins back, one of the top receivers in the league! And the offense does not look the same without him. The Texans are 6-13 when he doesn’t play.
And then Collins didn’t practice all week until Friday, and it is unclear if he’ll play and how much at the time of publication. Compounding matters, Will Anderson, the edge rusher, hasn’t practiced due to an ankle injury, and he’s not a lock to play.
On the back end, the Texans defense has been torched, giving up 19 TD passes, which is tied for second-most in the NFL (Baltimore is first but has played one more game). Houston’s red zone defense rates fourth-worst in the NFL, giving up TDs 69% of the time.
So the Texans can’t get stops. The offense is scattershot without Collins. Where’s Houston’s edge?
There’s no way the Texans overlook the Lions — not even with a huge in-state rivalry game next week in Dallas — but it’s very difficult for me to pass up on the Lions here the way this team is rolling.
In their last 55 games, the Lions are 40-15 ATS. In 2022, they were 12-5 ATS, second-best in the NFL. Last season, they were an NFL-best 14-6 ATS; this season they’re 7-1 ATS.
If I covered up their name and logo, you’d think this was the Chiefs, Ravens or the 49ers.
It’s as chalky as it gets, but give me Detroit.
PICK: Lions (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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