College football Week 12 is here, and I couldn’t be more pumped.
This means the next few days will be exciting for fans who love football and for bettors looking for fun ways to wager a few bucks.
I’ve already given you my best bets for Week 12 games, but now it’s time to have a little fun with my “Bear Bytes.”
These little “bytes,” as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your coworkers at the water cooler. Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research.
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(All times ET)
FRIDAY, NOV. 15
Houston @ Arizona (10:15 p.m., FS1)
Arizona is an FBS-worst 1-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, covering only as a 7.5-point ‘dog at Utah.
SATURDAY, NOV. 16
Utah @ No. 20 Colorado (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
This is the fourth time under Deion Sanders that Colorado is a double-digit favorite. The Buffs haven’t covered any of the previous three games. They beat FCS power North Dakota State by five to open 2024 as 11.5-point favorites and Colorado State by eight last year as 23-point favorites. Colorado also lost at Folsom Field last year to Stanford 46-43 as a 13-point favorite. This is the first time Utah is a double-digit underdog since 2017, when the Utes were 17.5-point ‘dogs at Washington and nearly pulled the upset, losing 33-30. That was 86 games ago.
No. 20 Clemson at Pitt (noon, ESPN)
Saturday is almost eight years to the day (Nov. 12, 2016) since Pitt’s 43-42 win over No. 2 Clemson in Death Valley.
UL Monroe @ Auburn (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
As Auburn head coach, Hugh Freeze is 4-10 in SEC play, 5–12 vs. Power Five opponents and 0-12 vs. teams that finished with (or in the case of 2024, currently have) winning records. The Tigers need to beat UL Monroe this week, along with Texas A&M and Alabama to go bowling.
Utah vs. Colorado: Who will win this Big 12 showdown?
No. 4 Penn State @ Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS)
This is the third time this season Purdue is greater than a 28-point underdog. You don’t have to go back far at all to find the last time a Power Four or Five team has had this happen at least three times in a season. Just last year, Indiana was greater than a 28-point dog three times and in 2022, Colorado was at least a 28-point ‘dog four times. Just goes to show how quickly a program’s fortune can change with the right coaching hire and proper utilization of NIL and the transfer portal. Both IU and CU control their fates to make the CFP in 2024. Purdue has faced three teams that are currently ranked this season. The Boilermakers have been outscored 146-7. They lost 66-7 to Notre Dame, 35-0 to Oregon and 45-0 to Ohio State.
Nebraska @ USC (4 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
Nebraska has lost eight straight games when the Huskers have five wins entering the game. Huskers are ‘dogs this week at SC, host Wisconsin and then go to Iowa. Are they going to go 5-7 again?
No. 23 Missouri @ No. 21 South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
Missouri is 3-2 in SEC play but could easily be 0-5. The Tigers beat Vanderbilt 30-27 in double overtime. They scored a touchdown with 46 seconds left to beat Auburn, which is 1-5 in SEC play. They also scored two TDs in the final 1:03 to beat Oklahoma, which is 1-5 in SEC play. All three of those games were in Columbia.
Georgia vs. Tennessee best bets, predictions & odds in CFB Week 12
No. 1 Oregon @ Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Since the formation of the BCS/CFP era in 1998, there have been 28 times that a No. 1 ranked team has played a road game against an unranked opponent in November or December. Only once has that team lost, and that was in 2002 when No. 1 Oklahoma lost at Texas A&M, 30-26. Since then, there have been 23 straight wins with just four games decided by a touchdown or less. Since 1978, there have been 147 games where No. 1 was a double-digit favorite on the road against an unranked team. Those 147 teams have gone 139-7-1. However, one of those losses came just over a month ago when Alabama lost at Vanderbilt as a 23.5-point favorite. Wisconsin has faced two current top-10 teams at home this season and been outscored 70-23, losing 42-10 to No. 9 Alabama and 28-13 to No. 4 Penn State.
No. 7 Tennessee @ No. 11 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Georgia has won seven straight in the series. The Dawgs have won by 26.4 PPG, with all by at least 14 points. They’ve covered five straight and have allowed more than 17 points once during the seven-game stretch.
Kansas @ No. 6 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Since 1978, there have been 66 instances of a team with a 9-0 record or better facing a team with a losing record at home. Every single one of those was a double-digit favorite. That is until this week, when 9-0 BYU is currently a 3-point favorite at home over 3-6 Kansas. None of those 66 teams lost and just three games were decided by less than a TD — including last year’s 24-21 win by 11-0 Washington over 5-6 Washington State as a 14.5-point favorite.
Washington vs. UCLA, Purdue vs. Penn State: CFB Week 12 Best Bets
Complete Teams
Ohio State (4/7), Alabama (6/8), Ole Miss (8/6) and Penn State (10/10) are the only teams in the country to be top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
SEC Dominating Ranked Matchups
Since the start of October, there have been 18 ranked matchups (including this week). Twelve of the 18 have been SEC games, four were Big Ten games and one was in the ACC. There was also Notre Dame/Navy.
Indiana wins 2024 National Title … Kind of
Last week, Indiana beat Michigan, completing a regular season sweep of the two teams which played for the national championship last season. In the BCS/CFP era, only three other times has a team beaten the two teams which played in the national championship game the previous season during the regular season. The season W-L for the two teams in parentheses.
2024
Indiana
Michigan (5-5)
Washington (5-5)
2015
Michigan State
Oregon (9-4)
Ohio State (12-1)
2011
LSU
Oregon (12-1)
Auburn (8-5)
2000
Miami
Florida State (11-2)
Virginia Tech (11-1)
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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