The AFC South title comes down to one game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) and the Tennessee Titans (7-9) square off Saturday night in the regular-season finale to determine the division champion. A win or tie gives the Jaguars the AFC South crown, while the Titans can only claim it with a victory.
The Jaguars are seeking just their second AFC South title, with the first coming in 2017 (Jacksonville also won back-to-back AFC Central division titles in 1998-99, before the NFL’s realignment). The Titans franchise is looking for a third straight division crown for the first time in 60 years (the Houston Oilers ruled the AFL Eastern division from 1960-62).
Winners of four straight games, the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s hottest teams. They’ve won six of their past eight games overall. Everything has changed for Jacksonville since a 2-6 start to the season, capped by a Week 8 loss to Denver in London.
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Most notable? Trevor Lawrence‘s emergence as a franchise quarterback, living up to the expectations that came when he was selected No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft.
Since Week 9, the former Clemson star ranks first among quarterbacks in completion rate (70.5%), second in passer rating (106.0), tied for third in touchdown-to-interception ratio (14/2) and fourth in expected points added per dropback (0.20). Along with great pass protection, Lawrence has a strong core of pass-catching weapons around him, including standout tight end Evan Engram and a 1,000-yard receiver in Christian Kirk.
The Jaguars defense has been impressive as well, with its ability to generate turnovers. Jacksonville has nine takeaways in the past four games alone, and has held its last two opponents — the Jets and Texans — to a combined six points.
While everything has seemingly gone right for the Jaguars, the opposite is true for the Titans.
Tennessee has lost six straight games, its longest skid of the Mike Vrabel era (2018-present). The team’s last win was Nov. 17 against the Packers. Injuries and a bad offense have been the primary issues.
Against Jacksonville, Tennessee will start Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Eight days after he was signed off the Lions‘ practice squad, Dobbs moved the ball better in last Thursday’s loss to the Cowboys than third-round rookie Malik Willis did in any of his three starts. So it was an easy decision to start Dobbs in the regular-season finale, with Ryan Tannehill on injured reserve.
Another week for Dobbs in the Titans offense should make a world of difference. He’ll have more time in the playbook and the chance to build chemistry with the pass-catchers. But Tennessee will need star running back Derrick Henry and a healthy defense against the ascending Jaguars.
Henry, cornerback Kristian Fulton and standout defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry were among the Titans to sit out their game against the Cowboys last week. They’re all expected to play Saturday.
Matchup to watch: Jaguars TE Evan Engram vs. Titans S Kevin Byard
Engram had a field day against the Titans in Week 14, catching 11 passes for a career-high 162 yards and two touchdowns in the Jaguars’ 36-22 win in Nashville. Tennessee must find a way to slow him down. The challenge is doing so without compromising the integrity of an already bad pass defense. The Titans are allowing 279.3 passing yards per game, dead last in the NFL.
Byard was lined up with Engram a handful of times in the first matchup. Expect the safety to take on the challenge of doing so again Saturday.
Byard may not be having the same kind of season he did last year, when he was a Pro Bowler and first team All-Pro, but he’s still one of the best safeties in the league. He was one of the few Titans defensive starters to play against Dallas last week and had one of his best games of the season, posting two interceptions.
X-factor: Titans QB Josh Dobbs
As impressive as Dobbs’ first NFL start was, he still had an interception and two fumbles, including one lost. His lack of experience in regular-season action showed. There were some dangerous throws.
Giveaways against the Jaguars will get you beat. Jacksonville has nine takeaways since Week 14, tied for third in the league in that span.
If Dobbs can manage the game and not put the ball in harm’s way, the Titans have a chance of winning — depending on Henry, time of possession and strong defense.
Prediction
This feels like the end of an era for the Titans, and the Jaguars are coming for their crown in the AFC South.
Jacksonville has the stronger roster and momentum, while Tennessee is banking on healthy players and a quarterback making his second NFL start to flip the switch in a win-and-in season finale. It’s hard to imagine the Jaguars blowing this opportunity, playing in front of their home crowd in the most significant regular-season game in recent team history.
Jaguars 28, Titans 23
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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