For the past two months-plus, NFL favorites have generally done well for the public betting masses. That was the case once again in NFL Week 16 odds.
Favorites were 11-3 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS) heading into the Sunday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys.
“Bettors continue to have a great weekend, with the majority of favorites getting the job done,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said. “We will need the Cowboys to forget they officially can’t make the playoffs.”
Underdog Dallas apparently did forget, edging Tampa Bay 26-24. Still, recreational bettors had a pretty good weekend, in both the NFL and the College Football Playoff.
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Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Detroit Diesel
The Detroit Lions hit a minor speed bump the past three weeks, going 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. But keep in mind, this is the NFL’s best spread-covering outfit since mid-November 2022.
The Lions are 35-10 SU/33-11-1 ATS in their last 45 games.
So the public wasn’t about to back off Detroit. In BetMGM’s Week 16 NFL odds, no team took more point-spread bets or point-spread money than the Lions.
And Detroit delivered as a 7-point road favorite, doubling up the Chicago Bears 34-17.
“It’s the story of the season. It’s every week with Lions bets,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The Bears [were] our biggest need of the day.”
It was a similar story at DraftKings Sportsbook. Detroit took the most point-spread bets and most point-spread money, and it paid off for the customers.
Cipollini said the Cincinnati Bengals were another key winner for the public Sunday. Cincy was a 10-point home favorite vs. Cleveland and rolled 24-6.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders stun the Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Winner
Sportsbooks got a little bit back with a key upset on Sunday. Jayden Daniels rallied the Washington Commanders to a 36-33 victory as 4-point home underdogs to the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly came into the contest on a 10-game winning streak, going 7-3 ATS in that stretch.
During the fourth quarter, John Murray — vice president of The SuperBook — didn’t expect Washington to win. But he hoped so.
“We really needed the Jets. But the Jets did the thing they do every week. And we needed the Bears,” Murray said. “We can salvage a little bit if we get Washington and Carolina.”
The SuperBook got both. The Panthers notched an upset, as well, beating Arizona 36-30 in overtime as 5.5-point home underdogs.
Across town in Las Vegas, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews also reveled in both those outcomes.
“The Commanders’ win was really good, and the Carolina win was really good,” Andrews said.
Murray also noted that the New England Patriots were a big need to cover against the Buffalo Bills. New England darted to a 14-0 second-quarter lead, but ultimately lost 24-21.
Still, the Pats covered as 14-point road underdogs.
Bryce Young on Panthers’ mentality in overtime victory against Cardinals – ‘Whatever it takes’
Playoff Payoff
On Saturday, there were three College Football Playoff first-round games, along with two high-profile NFL games.
Here’s how that all shook out:
- Penn State, a 9-point favorite, drilled SMU 38-10
- Texas (-13.5) beat Clemson 38-24
- Ohio State (-7) drubbed Tennessee 42-17
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) topped the Houston Texans 27-19
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) dispatched the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17
“Not so good,” Andrews said. “Five games, five favorites covered, and four of the games went over the total.”
In other words, a public bettor’s delight. The public loves nothing more than wagering on the favorite and Over. So a 5-0 run for favorites and 4-1 mark for the Over sat just fine. The only Saturday game in which the Over didn’t hit: Penn State-SMU, with a closing total of 52.5.
Add in Notre Dame’s 27-17 win Friday as 7-point home favorites vs. Indiana, and CFP favorites went a perfect — and relatively easy — 4-0 SU and ATS. We’ll see if that trend persists in the quarterfinals, on Dec. 31-Jan. 1.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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