Only once in NFL history has a team with a 3-7 record bounced back enough to make the playoffs, but the Steelers have a chance to do that — with help from other teams — as they compete for the AFC’s final wild card with a home game against the Browns.
Such a turnaround comes one week at a time, and Mike Tomlin said the Steelers will have the same simple approach in trying to do their part to extend their season Sunday.
“I don’t know that it’s anything that’s mystical or earth-shattering in any way,” Tomlin said to his team’s mid-year resurgence. “I just think you have to display a certain amount of resolve, individually and collectively, in an effort to have the type of focus that’s required, to work every day to get better every day, to repeat the cycle that is preparation, regardless of what’s transpired, good and bad, to increase your chances of winning with each opportunity.”
Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three straight and five of its past six games to keep its playoff hopes alive until the final game of the season. To earn the third and final AFC wild card, the Steelers need to not only win, but have Miami and New England also lose their games Sunday. As help goes, it’s certainly viable, as the Dolphins have lost five in a row and are likely starting their No. 3 quarterback, and the Patriots have lost four of their past six and would be facing an emotional Bills team, trying to rally together after Damar Hamlin’s collapse and hospitalization on Monday night.
The Steelers have never finished with a losing record in Tomlin’s first 15 seasons as head coach. They’ve finished 8-8 three times, but a win Sunday would keep an impressive streak alive for another year.
Much has changed for both teams since their first meeting in Week 3 — the Steelers still had Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback then, and the Browns had Jacoby Brissett while Deshaun Watson served his 11-game suspension. Pittsburgh has turned to rookie Kenny Pickett, now 6-5 as a starter, and Cleveland has gone 3-2 since Watson took over. After totaling just two touchdowns in his first four games, Watson had three in Sunday’s win over the Commanders, including two to receiver Amari Cooper.
Pittsburgh led 14-13 at halftime of the first meeting, then saw its offense stall in the second half with just 111 yards and six first downs, allowing Cleveland to pull out a close win. The final score was 29-17, but the Browns scored a touchdown with time expired on a Steelers desperation play from Pittsburgh’s 4-yard line.
“When you’re getting ready for Cleveland, you’ve got to respect their run game and specifically Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt,” Tomlin said. “They’ve got to be the top tandem in football. They need no endorsement from me. Their tape and their résumé speak to that. We’ve got to do a good job there.”
Cleveland ranks sixth in the NFL with 147 rushing yards per game, and Chubb ranks second in the league with 1,448 rushing yards, along with 12 touchdowns. Pittsburgh answers with the league’s No. 7 rush defense, holding opponents to 106 rushing yards per game. The Browns rushed for 171 yards (113 from Chubb) in the first meeting, the second-most allowed by Pittsburgh this season, behind only a 215-yard game by the Ravens last month. Pittsburgh also didn’t have star pass-rusher T.J. Watt in the first game, and he’s back healthy with 3.5 sacks in the past four games.
The Browns (7-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they too have bounced back nicely from a 3-7 start, winning four of their past six games. Their defense has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in five of those six games, after giving up at least 17 points in nine of the first 10. Cleveland’s run defense hasn’t been a strength, ranking 25th out of 32 teams, and coach Kevin Stefanski said they’ll need to step up against Najee Harris and Pittsburgh’s run game.
“We know when you’re playing the Steelers, it’s a physical football game,” Stefanski said. “They do a nice job in their run game — big, physical running backs, a varied scheme, so you expect you’re going to have to play a very physical 60-minute game. … It’s going to take a complete game to try to win this one.”
The projected high temperature in Pittsburgh on Sunday is 41 degrees, with a chance of rain on a chilly January afternoon that lends itself to more running than passing. Pittsburgh has something to play for, but Cleveland will be just as motivated to end its season on a winning note.
“It’s a big rivalry game, so we intend to put our best foot forward,” Browns tight end David Njoku said this week. “It’s always personal, and they’re going to be ready.”
Prediction: With so much on the line, Pittsburgh’s defense steps up and pulls out a close win. Is it enough to get the Steelers in the postseason? That’s another question.
Steelers 20, Browns 17
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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb
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