The regular season is in the books, but we should take a long, hard look at the season finales before casting our eyes toward the postseason. Although each team entered Week 18 with a different agenda, there are plenty of things to discuss after watching the action unfold.
Given some time to assess what took place over the weekend, here are some thoughts and observations from a former NFL scout.
Three things I liked
1. Lovie Smith plays to win
To the ire of Houston Texans‘ fans and draft observers, Lovie Smith decided to play the team’s season finale like a playoff game. The veteran coached the game to win, and his team responded with a valiant effort against the Indianapolis Colts.
Though the winning performance cost the Texans the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, the decision to play the game to win is exactly what an NFL coach is supposed to do. Every player and coach on the Texans has poured his heart and soul into winning each week, and it is not fair to them to “tank” or sabotage their efforts by playing for a loss.
As a veteran coach, Smith knew that and owed it to his players to give them every opportunity to win. How can he stand before them each week and demand their best effort when he does not give it in return?
While the outrage over Smith’s approach might have cost him his job in the end, he will always have the respect of the locker room, and that will matter when he takes another job as a defensive coordinator or position coach down the road.
2. Geno Smith is a franchise quarterback
Credit Pete Carroll for seeing the greatness in his former QB2 before the rest of the football world could appreciate Geno Smith as a franchise quarterback.
The journeyman not only surprised the league with his stellar play for the Seahawks after the team traded away Russell Wilson, but he set franchise records in completions (399), pass attempts (572), completion percentage (69.8) and passing yards (4,282). Smith became the first Seattle quarterback to lead in the NFL in completion percentage since Dave Krieg in 1991.
Think about that. Smith has been an upgrade at the position over his predecessor while guiding a team that was expected to languish in the division’s cellar into the playoffs. Considering how quarterbacks are judged by their ability to win games while performing at a high level, it is hard to dismiss Smith’s chances of keeping the Hawks’ QB1 job based on his superb play between the lines.
3. The Lions are coming
There is no carryover from one season to the next, but the Detroit Lions are on the verge of becoming a perennial playoff contender under Dan Campbell.
The grizzled head coach has established a culture of toughness and physicality while rebuilding a roster that produced the franchise’s first winning season since 2017. In addition, Campbell has helped Jared Goff rediscover his game as a top-tier quarterback after the Los Angeles Rams unceremoniously traded him after he led them to a Super Bowl appearance.
With the quarterback playing at a Pro Bowl level, the Lions offense has enough punch to knock out heavyweights behind an underrated running game sparked by a dominant offensive line. If the Lions can add a few more playmakers to an offense that is already humming like a well-oiled machine, the rest of the NFC will struggle to slow down a unit that produces fireworks in various ways.
Defensively, the Lions’ youth movement should result in an improved unit in 2023 with a few draft picks and free agents coming aboard. If the Lions can continue to add impact players to the frontline to enhance their young pass rushers (Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston), the sacks and turnovers could come in bunches next season.
Aidan Hutchinson on Detroit’s “dominant” victory over Bears
Aidan Hutchinson spoke with FOX Sports’ Shannon Spake after the Lions’ win over the Bears in Week 17. “This feels special,” he said of the team.
Three things I did not like
1. Dak Prescott is slumping
After Prescott tied for the league lead in interceptions following a seven-game stretch with at least one in each game, it is time for the Dallas Cowboys to address their turnover-prone quarterback’s poor play.
Despite Prescott’s attempt to own his mistakes and miscues, Mike McCarthy needs to discuss with his offensive staff how to approach the playoffs with the quarterback struggling with turnovers. The team must consider altering its playcalls to reduce his role as a playmaker from the pocket. Moreover, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore must contemplate utilizing a more conservative set of plays to minimize the risk of Prescott throwing the ball to the other team.
Dak Prescott’s turnover bug continues
Dak Prescott finished 14-of-37 for 128 yards, a touchdown and a pick-six in the Cowboys’ 26-6 loss to Washington. Colin Cowherd explains how this proves that Prescott is a ‘B’ quarterback.
Although the veteran has been a top playmaker for the Cowboys throughout his career, it might be time to treat Prescott like a game manager and rely on the team’s complementary playmakers to take on bigger roles as the Cowboys attempt to win a wild-card game on the road vs. Tampa Bay.
2. What happened to “The Patriot Way”?
The New England Patriots mastered the art of winning under Bill Belichick by avoiding the self-inflicted errors that routinely result in losses. The “DBOs” — a.k.a. “Don’t Beat Ourselves” — consist of turnovers (giveaways), big plays allowed, pre-snap or foolish penalties and kicking game errors, and the Patriots have consistently excelled in each of those areas.
This season, however, we have witnessed the Patriots implode down the stretch with egregious errors and miscues plaguing their performances. From the failed lateral toss that resulted in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders to Rhamondre Stevenson‘s fumble at the end of the Cincinnati game to surrendering a pair of kick return scores to the Buffalo Bills‘ Nyheim Hines, the Patriots have exhibited none of the qualities that made them a perennial contender over the past two decades.
While the Patriots’ demise has fueled discussions about quarterback play and the offense’s direction, Belichick will need to spend part of the offseason assessing why a team that has been so good at avoiding self-inflicted mistakes has become a disaster in the clutch.
3. Brandon Staley makes more controversial moves
The Los Angeles Chargers head coach is squarely on the hot seat after playing his starters in a meaningless game. Although Staley was attempting to build some momentum heading into the playoffs, the decision to play the team’s stars resulted in injuries to Mike Williams and Joey Bosa that could impact the Chargers’ chances of advancing beyond the wild-card round.
As a team with enough talent and playmaking potential to challenge any heavyweight in the AFC, the Chargers should have prioritized the health of their top performers in a game that did not have an impact on the team’s seeding in the tournament. While injuries can happen any time, Staley bypassed a chance to keep his best players on the sideline to ensure that they would be available next week.
If the Chargers are “one and done” in the playoffs, the second-year coach will have a lot of explaining to do when he sits down with ownership to discuss his team-building approach.
My top 10 teams
1. San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan’s squad is riding a 10-game winning streak into the playoffs. Brock Purdy has added a dimension to a star-studded offense as a mobile game manager with playmaking skills.
Brock Purdy on Niners’ confidence heading into postseason
FOX Sports’ Jen Hale talks with 49ers QB Brock Purdy about the team’s confidence and getting key players healthy in time for a Super Bowl run.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow‘s confidence and swagger are infectious as the third-year pro has the defending AFC champs primed for a deep postseason run. With an offense that can put up 30-plus on any opponent, the Bengals’ opportunistic defense gives them a chance to make a return visit to the Super Bowl.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes might have wrapped up another MVP award while guiding the Chiefs to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The spectacular passer posted another 5,000-yard season by playing “pitch-and-catch” with Travis Kelce and a handful of unheralded receivers. In addition, Mahomes has transformed the Chiefs from a big-play offense into an efficient, chain-moving machine that gobbles up yards on an assortment of dink-and-dunk tosses to the perimeter.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: The recipe for Super Bowl success features an MVP-caliber quarterback and a disruptive pass rush that can take over the game. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ sack-happy frontline (69 sacks) certainly check off the boxes for a legitimate title contender squad.
5. Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen & Co. are hitting their stride entering the playoffs, with the offense’s stars showing big-play potential in critical moments. As the defense and special teams units pitch in with timely contributions, the Bills can roll through the tournament with a team that can win in various ways.
6. Minnesota Vikings: The enigmatic Vikings are hard to figure out despite the 13 wins on the record. With a collection of nail-biters and blowouts dotting the schedule, Minnesota’s topsy-turvy season leads to questions about the team’s ability to advance through the single-elimination tournament.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: The Bolts have a star-studded lineup with the capacity to whip any of the heavyweights in the league, but questions regarding the team’s leaky run defense and game management could derail L.A.’s title chances.
8. New York Giants: The hardworking G-Men could pose a problem for opponents in the postseason due to their playing style and turtle-like offensive pace. If Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley throw up big offensive numbers to complement an opportunistic defense, the Giants could emerge as one of the biggest surprises in the tournament.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy must find the code to unlock the Cowboys’ talent and potential in the postseason. With Dak Prescott struggling with turnovers and the defense unable to generate a pass rush or limit big plays, the Cowboys could be a one-and-done squad unless McCarthy works his magic on the practice field.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-to-first Jaguars are rolling behind Trevor Lawrence‘s spectacular play down the stretch. Although Doug Pederson’s squad is far from perfect, the combination of stellar quarterback play and takeaways could help them advance through the playoffs.
Week 18 Game Balls
Most Valuable Player of the Week
Jared Goff deserves a game ball for knocking the Green Bay Packers out of the playoffs with a solid performance on the road. The former No. 1 overall pick erased some of the narratives around his game by leading the Lions to a winning record on the strength of his consistent play from the pocket. Against the Packers, he dropped a few dimes in key moments in an efficient performance (23-of-34 for 224 yards) that kept the offense on schedule in a win or go home game that gave the football world a glimpse at how the Lions could handle playoff pressure down the road.
Offensive Player of the Week
It took 18 games to see Russell Wilson at his best, but the veteran put on a five-star performance in the Broncos‘ season finale. Wilson connected on 13 of 24 passes for 283 yards with three scores and an interception. Although we have seen more efficient performances from Wilson throughout his career, the solid showing against the Chargers might foreshadow a bounce-back year from Wilson in 2023.
Defensive Player of the Week
J.J. Watt did not conclude his illustrious career with a win, but he certainly reminded the football world of his greatness with a two-sack effort that showcased his unique combination of strength, power and explosiveness as a pass rusher. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year put the finishing touches on an impressive campaign in which he led the Cardinals in sacks (12.5) and pressures (50), per Next Gen Stats.
Unsung Hero of the Week
Nyheim Hines scripted a storybook ending to the Bills’ gut-wrenching week with a pair of kickoff return scores against the Patriots. The electric return man took the opening kick to the house in epic fashion to spark Buffalo to a fast start and added a 101-yard score to help put the finishing touches on an impressive win. Given the game’s circumstances, Hines’ jaw-dropping performance merits a game ball and some kudos.
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Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He regularly appears on “Speak For Yourself” and also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.
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