FOX Sports Research
The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to gambling on the biggest game of the year, we have you covered from a trends point of view.
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into wagering on the Super Bowl by looking at various angles and trends that have historically been profitable.
After wading through the data, here are the 10 best overall trends that caught our attention.
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Hopefully, these nuggets help you make informed wagers, but more importantly, they’ll make watching the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles a little more exciting.
Let’s get into the trends!
1. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 64% of the time
This is a staggering number that jumped off the page. Teams that get on the board first have won 37 of 58 Super Bowls. Looking at a more recent time frame, the team that scored first has lost in four of the last five Super Bowls, with the Los Angeles Rams being the only exception in the 2021 season.
Despite the recent dip, this has been a profitable trend. From 2011 to 2018, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game went on to win. Additionally, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first be victorious.
The lone team from 2011-18 not to score first and win? The New England Patriots in 2017 (2016 season), who were famously down 28-3 in the third quarter but still managed to get a W.
2. Betting on the winner in the Super Bowl, more often than not, directly results in a cover against the spread (ATS)
Teams that win the Super Bowl are 49-7-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 87.5% clip. Since the 2009 season, teams that win the Super Bowl have gone a whopping 14-1 ATS (93.3%). The lone team to not cover in that span was the Rams in the 2021 season, winning by three points as 4.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals.
3. Nick Sirianni trends
With Sirianni making his second appearance in the Super Bowl, we did a deep dive into his performance ATS and straight up (SU) as a head coach. Here’s what we found:
- Sirianni is 4-4 ATS (50%) and 5-3 SU (62.5%) as a head coach in the playoffs for his career.
- Sirianni is 7-10 ATS (41.2%) and 6-11 SU (35.3%) as a head coach when an underdog in his career (regular season + playoffs).
- Andy Reid vs Nick Sirianni will be the fifth head coach rematch in a Super Bowl all-time; the head coach that won the first meeting also won the second meeting in all four previous instances (that includes Reid vs Kyle Shanahan last year in Super Bowl LVIII).
4. Andy Reid trends
Coach Andy Reid is also no stranger to the Super Bowl, making his sixth appearance in the big game, tied with Don Shula for the second-most in NFL history. Here’s a deep dive into how he’s performed in various betting situations throughout his career:
- Reid is 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) and 28-16 SU (63.6%) as a head coach in all playoff games in his career (Chiefs and Eagles).
- Reid is 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) and 18-7 SU (72%) as the Chiefs head coach in the playoffs.
- Reid is 16-14 ATS (53.3%) and 21-9 SU (70%) as a head coach when a favorite in the playoffs (Chiefs and Eagles).
- Reid is 11-8 ATS (57.9%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) as the Chiefs head coach when a favorite in the playoffs.
- Reid is 4-1 ATS (80%) and 3-2 SU (60%) as a head coach in the Super Bowl (Chiefs and Eagles).
- Reid is 4-1 ATS and SU (80%) as a head coach vs. the Eagles in his career (regular season and playoffs).
5. The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl historically wins and covers
Look for who gets an early lead in the rushing total, as teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are an astonishing 41-14-3 ATS (74.5%) and 43-15 SU (74.1%). In the regular season, the Chiefs were 22nd in the league in rushing at 105.3 rush yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked second at 179.3.
6. The team that allowed fewer points per game in the regular season has been on a tear
Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won eight of the last nine Super Bowls and are also 7-2 ATS (77.8%). The 2022 Chiefs team broke a streak of seven straight teams winning the Super Bowl when allowing fewer points per game compared to their Super Bowl opponent, and the 2023 Chiefs squad got the trend back on track (as they allowed fewer points per game than the 49ers).
Prior to 2022, the last team to win the Super Bowl while sporting a higher points-per-game average was the Patriots in 2015 (2014 season), who would have lost the game to the Seattle Seahawks had Malcolm Butler not intercepted the ball on the goal line with 20 seconds left.
This season, the Chiefs allowed 19.2 points per game in the regular season (fourth-best in league), while the Eagles allowed 17.8 (second-best in league).
7. The AFC has dominated the spread in recent years
Since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970, the NFC and AFC have split Super Bowl wins equally at 27 apiece, and the cover rate is also equal at 26-26-2 ATS (50%). However, over the last 12 Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 9-3 ATS (75%) and 8-4 SU (66.7%). The NFC teams to cover in that span were the 2013 Seahawks, the 2017 Eagles and the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Chiefs were favored in 14 of 16 games with Mahomes as the starter this season, going 6-7-1 ATS (46.2%) and 14-0 SU in those games. Kansas City is currently a 1.5-point favorite against Philadelphia. Below is an overview of how Mahomes has performed as a favorite in his career:
- Mahomes is 14-6 ATS (70%) and 17-3 SU (85%) as a starter in the playoffs in his career. That cover rate is the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 starts), while the win percentage is also the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 playoff starts).
- Mahomes is 8-0 ATS and SU when a favorite of less than three points or an underdog in his playoff career.
- Mahomes is 3-1 ATS and SU (75%) as a starter in the Super Bowl in his career.
- Mahomes is 59-57-1 ATS (50.9%) and 94-23 SU (80.3%) as a favorite in his career (regular season and playoffs).
9. Twenty-six teams have won both the coin flip and the game all-time in the Super Bowl. In eight of the last ten Super Bowls, the team that has won the toss has lost the game
Only 44.8% of teams all time have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Just another thing to keep in mind if you want to throw in a live bet.
The winner of the coin flip had an unlucky eight-year stretch of losing the game until the Chiefs broke the curse over the last two years (winning the toss and the game both times). Before the Chiefs did so in 2023 and 2024, the last time we saw two consecutive Super Bowls in which the coin toss winner also won the game was in the 2012 season (Ravens) and the 2013 seasons (Seahawks).
10. Teams that win time of possession cover and win the game
Since the conception of the Super Bowl, teams that win the time of possession battle are 39-16-3 ATS (70.9%) and 41-17 SU (70.7%). In the regular season, the Eagles ranked third in the league in time of possession, while the Chiefs ranked sixth.
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