With just over three weeks away from Selection Sunday, the stress for bubble teams intensifies. It’s easy to say that your team is completely dialed in and unfazed by projections and rankings, but it’s human nature to hit the refresh button and see where you stand right now. One coach whose team is firmly on the bubble told me, in part: “Our guys aren’t hermits. They know what’s at stake here and the madness is already underway for us.”
That coach is correct in more ways than one, because — unless you’re an SEC team — if you’re on the bubble, you have games right now that you absolutely can’t lose. The ones that can move the needle, you really need to find a way to win. You want to give the selection committee a reason to include you in the field — not a reason to leave you out.
With that, let’s look at some winners and losers from the midweek games, where they fall in Mike DeCourcy‘s latest bracket forecast, and who we should have our eyes on heading into the weekend.
BYU (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
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The Cougars should be much safer right now after seizing an opportunity against a Kansas team that — while they’re 8-7 in the Big 12 — was still included on the 4-line in the selection committee’s Saturday top 16 reveal. Kevin Young’s team didn’t just beat Kansas, they dominated the Jayhawks by 30-plus points, 91-57. The 34-point defeat, which tied the largest loss of Bill Self’s tenure at Kansas, gave BYU a fourth Quad 1 result. With a 3-1 record against Quad 2, no bad losses and a NET of 31, star Richie Saunders and the Cougars should be thinking about their dancing shoes.
West Virginia (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
The Mountaineers have had an up-and-down season, but the five Quad 1 wins — including victories over Iowa State, Arizona on a neutral court, and at Kansas — are jewels in the committee’s eyes for a bubble team because they have reasons to put you into the field. WVU’s NET ranking sits at 44 and its KPI is currently above UConn, BYU, VCU and SMU at 43. The Mountaineers survived Cincinnati on Wednesday — another loss for a Bearcats team that is on the outside looking in and will likely not make the tournament. This Saturday, a trip to Texas Tech awaits. If Darian DeVries’ team can win that one, they should be moved off the bubble.
Arkansas (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
I understand the committee doesn’t take conference records into account, but the Razorbacks are 4-9 in the SEC. The record that is important is their 3-9 mark against Quad 1 teams after Wednesday’s 67-60 loss to Auburn. With Adou Thiero and Johnell Davis leading the way, the Razorbacks gave the top-ranked team in the country all they could handle, something that would pass the eye test well, but I genuinely don’t think John Calipari’s team has enough in the here and now to justify them being tournament bound.
Saturday brings a home game against a Missouri team that just scored 110 points in a statement win over Alabama on Wednesday. If the Hogs can win that, I’ll put them on the right side of my bubble, but a NET in the 40s and KPI in the 50s isn’t enough. Almost half of their wins come from Quadrant 4, and 11 of the 15 victories are from the bottom two quadrants. If they can’t beat Mizzou at home and drop to 4-10 in the league, I’m sorry, but they can’t be in the projected field.
Wake Forest (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
The interesting element with the Demon Deacons is that they’re 35th in KPI, a results-based metric judging a team’s body of work. With a NET ranking of 58 and two Quad 1 wins, as well as a Quad 3 loss, it’s hard to fully understand where to pinpoint Steve Forbes’ team. Résumé aside, I think this is a tournament-caliber team with Hunter Sallis (18.5 points per game) leading the way and Cam Hildreth and Tre’Von Spillers also averaging double-figures, but they can ill-afford a bad loss in the weak ACC. The Demon Deacons travel to North Carolina State on Saturday before hosting Virginia and Notre Dame. All three are non-negotiable. They have to win.
VCU (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
This is another team that’s, unfortunately, a victim of a weak ACC and has as many Quadrant 4 losses as they have Quadrant 1 wins: one. The Rams have a huge game against a visiting George Mason team on Saturday for first place in their only meeting of the regular season. When your best win is against Dayton and your worst loss is to Seton Hall, you’re not getting in as an at-large — barring something wild happening.
Georgia (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
The Bulldogs have lost eight of their past 10 games and the two wins are over non-tournament teams in LSU and South Carolina. They’re at Auburn and then home to Florida in the next two games. I really think they need one of these next two, or else going 2-10 in a 12-game stretch this time of year could mark your end. I don’t care how great your league is.
UC Irvine (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
I would love a two-bid Big West! That said, it seems highly unlikely. With the Anteaters tied in the standings with UC San Diego at 12-2 in the conference and the two teams at a combined 41-8 on the year, I can understand why whoever doesn’t win the league tournament would be on the radar. However, the committee has shown us over the years that it is rarely, if ever, going to give an at-large team a bid from a league where 17 of its wins are in the bottom two quadrants. I love the UC Irvine story, but they have one Quad 1 win and two Quad 3 losses. That’s a no-go.
SMU (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
The Mustangs are in the top 40 in NET and the top 50 in KPI. The problem is they own zero Quad 1 victories. Saturday could change that: a must-win game at home against a ranked Clemson squad. It’s the game Andy Enfield’s team needs in its pursuit of a bid.
North Carolina (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
It’s hard to believe there are this many dead spots on the ACC schedule that only harm you severely if you lose and don’t do much, if anything at all, if you win. RJ Davis tallied 21 points, while Seth Trimble had 15 in North Carolina’s 97-73 win over North Carolina State. The issue? The Wolfpack are 10-16, so a win is expected, and a loss ends your season.
Up next: Virginia on Saturday. Just keep winning, UNC. If you do that over the next four games, your Super Bowl is March 8 vs. Duke.
Xavier (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
No Big East team has been left out of the NCAA Tournament with 21 regular-season wins since Syracuse in 2007. Different times or not, that’s still a note that carries some weight. Xavier would be fine if it had not blown so many chances in non-conference play, with losses at Cincinnati and TCU showing the team’s flaws. With just one Quad 1 win at the moment, they should be rooting for UConn (NET: 36) to find a way into the top 30 to get another Q1 win. The Musketeers have a visit to Seton Hall, a season-changing home game with Creighton, before Butler and Providence.
That game against the Bluejays on March 1 (4:30 pm ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) should be wild. If Xavier wins out, Sean Miller’s team should hear their name called. The Musketeers have no bad losses and are 6-1 in Quadrant 2.
Indiana (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
With a NET of 57, a KenPom that is sandwiched in between Cincinnati and Villanova and a solid enough KPI at 42, the Hoosiers have to start making hay — or else. After a nine-day layoff, Mike Woodson’s team hosts a Purdue squad that will be trying to bounce back from three straight losses. Indiana did pull off its best win of the season when it shocked Michigan State in East Lansing last week behind Malik Reneau’s 19 points. To really pad the résumé, the Hoosiers need to win Saturday’s game at Assembly Hall over Purdue, which would count as a huge Quad 1 win and maybe even get them on the right side of the bubble again. After this game, it’s Penn State, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State. You’d like to get three of those.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
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