FOX Sports Research
It’s the most wonderful time of year, as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, affectionately known as “March Madness” to most, starts this week.
This will be the 86th edition of the tournament and the 40th since expanding to 64 teams in 1985. Given the numerous upsets over the years, FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into the numbers to find you the best first-round and tournament betting trends.
We dissected how teams performed against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) to give you the information needed to make some successful wagers throughout the first week.
Let’s dive in.
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Underdogs have a slight edge against the spread (ATS) in the Round of 64
If it feels like underdogs have done well in the first round in recent years, it’s because they have — especially from a gambling perspective. Since 2015, they’ve gone a whopping 149-133-3 ATS (52.8%). Seventy-eight of those underdogs actually won their respective games straight up (SU), which is significant considering the number of mid-majors and small programs that compete.
Below, we’ve outlined how underdogs have performed historically since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
- Underdogs are 610-595-25 ATS (50.6%) and 311-919 SU (25.3%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
- Double-digit underdogs are 244-243-7 ATS (50.1%) and 38-456 SU (7.7%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
- Currently, the 20+ point spreads in the Round of 64 feature Alabama (-22.5) vs Robert Morris, Houston (-28.5) vs. SIU Edwardsville, Auburn (-32.5) vs. Alabama State, Duke (-31.5) vs Mount St. Mary’s, and Florida (-28.5) vs Norfolk State.
- Teams that are 20+ point underdogs in the Round of 64 are 91-85-3 ATS (51.7%) and 4-175 SU (2.2%).
- Teams that are 30+ point underdogs in the Round of 64 are 9-14 ATS (39.1%) and 0-23 SU.
Specific seed vs. seed matchups in Round of 64
Expanding a bit more on the first round, here is a breakdown of some interesting trends with double-digit seeds. You might be surprised at how successful the lower seeds have been in recent years:
- A 12-seed has won 55 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
- In 12 of the past 16 tournaments, at least one 13-seed has beaten a No. 4 seed.
- In six of the past 12 tournaments, a No. 14 seed has beaten a No. 3 seed; however, only two No. 14 seed has defeated a No. 3 seed in the last five tournaments (2021 Abilene Christian defeated Texas; 2024 Oakland defeated Kentucky).
- In six of the past 12 NCAA tournaments, a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed, but none won last year.
- Double-digit seeds are 528-541-22 ATS (49.4%) and 245-846 SU (22.5%) in the Round of 64 since 1985.Excludes the Oregon–VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
- Excludes the Oregon–VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
That being said, it would be unfair not to point out some of the glaring losing streaks that many of the small conferences hold, as these are the schools that usually obtain these double-digit seeds.
- Horizon League schools are 1-11 in the Round of 64 since 2012, with the lone win in that span coming from Oakland against Kentucky last year.15th-seeded Robert Morris, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s tournament, faces Alabama, the No. 2 seed in the East Region.
- 15th-seeded Robert Morris, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s tournament, faces Alabama, the No. 2 seed in the East Region.
- Big Sky schools are 3-35 in the Round of 64 all-time, with the last win coming from Montana in 2006.Montana will look to win again, as they are the lone Big Sky school in the tournament this year— and will face three-seed Wisconsin.
- Montana will look to win again, as they are the lone Big Sky school in the tournament this year— and will face three-seed Wisconsin.
- Colonial Athletic schools are 0-11 in the Round of 64 since 2013, with the last win coming from VCU (now in the Atlantic 10) in 2012.The 14th-seeded UNC Wilmington Seahawks are the lone Colonial Athletic team in the field this year, facing third-seeded Texas Tech.
- The 14th-seeded UNC Wilmington Seahawks are the lone Colonial Athletic team in the field this year, facing third-seeded Texas Tech.
- Big South schools are 1-28 in the Round of 64, with the lone win coming from Winthrop in 2007.The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 13th-seeded High Point, which takes on 4-seed Purdue.
- The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 13th-seeded High Point, which takes on 4-seed Purdue.
Bet on these coaches to cover in the Round of 64
It could be argued that coaching matters more in college basketball than in any other sport, and that notion is accentuated even more in the tournament. There are six coaches in this year’s tourney who rank in the top 20 all-time in cover rate for Round of 64 games (minimum 10 games coached in round):
- Matt Painter: 12-4 ATS (75%) in the Round of 64, tied for the best of any coach all-time (Rick Majerus was 9-3 ATS in Round of 64). No. 4 Purdue takes on High Point, looking to make another run in the tourney after losing in the title game last year.
- Dana Altman: 9-4-2 ATS (69.2%) in the Round of 64, the fourth-best of any coach all-time. No. 5 Oregon will take on No. 12 Liberty as 7.5-point favorites, the Ducks’ ninth tournament appearance under Altman.
- Bill Self: 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) in the Round of 64, the 14th all-time. The No. 7 Jayhawks will take on 10th-seeded Arkansas as 5.5-point favorites despite having lost three of their last five games.
- Scott Drew, Greg McDermott: both are 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the Round of 64, tied for the 15th-best among all coaches all-time. Drew will lead Baylor against Mississippi State as one-point underdogs, while McDermott will lead Creighton against Louisville as a 2.5-point underdog; both of these matchups are No. 8 vs No. 9 games.
- Tom Izzo: 14-11 ATS (56%) in the Round of 64, the 19th best among all coaches all-time. The Spartans are in their 27th consecutive NCAA Tournament under Izzo, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NCAA history. They are a two-seed and 17.5-point favorites against 15-seed Bryant.
No. 1 seeds dominate in the Round of 64 AND in the title game
While we’ve focused on the Round of 64, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of what characteristics national champions display.
Since seeding began in 1979, 27 No. 1 seeds have won 27 national championships, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds have combined for just 18 titles. That means 60% of national champions since 1979 were top seeds. In fact, six of the past seven national title winners and 13 of the past 17 champions were No. 1 seeds.
In the Round of 64, they’re almost perfect, going a whopping 154-2 SU (98.7%) and 81-73-2 ATS (52.6%) since 1985. The only 16-seeds to defeat a top seed are UMBC, who took down Virginia in the 2018 tournament, and the Fairleigh Dickinson team that took down Purdue in 2023.
Other notable trends
- Since the First Four was introduced in 2011, a team that won in the First Four has made it to the Round of 32 in 12 of those 13 tournaments— including two teams to make the Final Four (2021 VCU, 2024 UCLA.)
- Gonzaga is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 SU (53.3%) in the tournament when playing as a No. 5 or worse (the Zags enter the tournament as a No. 8 seed); they have also made the Sweet 16 in nine consecutive tournaments, four shy of tying the modern record held by North Carolina and five shy of the all-time record held by UCLA.
- Rick Barnes is appearing in his 29th NCAA Tournament; in the previous 28, his teams lost in the first weekend (Round of 64 or Round of 32) 19 times.
- Dan Hurley is 15-3 ATS (83.3%) and 14-4 SU (77.8%) in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach; that is the highest cover rate of any coach since 1985 (minimum 15 games coached).
- Since 1985, a double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in all but two NCAA Tournaments (1995, 2007).
- No team west of the state of Texas has won the NCAA Tournament since 1997, when Arizona took home the title that year.
KenPom trends
KenPom has become one of the most respected college basketball analytical tools since its debut. The site takes into account various metrics to measure the offensive and defensive efficiencies of every Division I basketball team. Looking at the pre-tournament KenPom data, there are a few interesting trends.
Firstly, 22 of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 21 of adjusted offensive efficiency (2014 UConn lone exception). Twenty of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 31 of adjusted defensive efficiency (2009 North Carolina, 2015 Duke, 2021 Baylor).
So, using the 2024 pre-tournament KenPom rankings, below are the eight teams that fit the bill of ranking in the top 21 of offense and top 31 in defense — with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (as of March 20th):
Duke: +320 to win title (bet $10 to win $42)
Florida: +380 to win the title (bet $10 to win $48)
Auburn: +400 to win the title (bet $10 to win $50)
Houston: +600 to win title (bet $10 to win $70)
Tennessee: +2200 to win title (bet $10 to win $230)
Alabama: +2200 to win title (bet $10 to win $230)
Iowa State: +4500 to win title (bet $10 to win $460)
Gonzaga: +5000 to win title (bet $10 to win $510)
Wisconsin.: +6000 to win title (bet $10 to win $610)
Again, this isn’t a strict measure, as teams can get hot — like several teams mentioned above in parenthesis. But it is a good indicator of which teams might be worth a title bet prior to the tournament starting.
Duke is the current favorite to win it all (+320), but it’s worth noting that 10 of the last 11 title winners all had odds greater than +450 entering the tournament (last year’s UConn team was +350 prior to the first round). And before that, Kentucky in 2012 was the last team to have shorter odds, closing at +185 before their first game.
It’s also worth noting that all 23 national champions in the KenPom era (since 2001) were ranked in the top 25 of overall adjusted efficiency. All nine of the teams above rank inside the top 13 of this year’s pre-tournament KenPom data.
So who are you betting on?
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