The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will face each other for the second time in less than three weeks when they meet in an AFC divisional round playoff game Sunday in Upstate New York.
The teams played Jan. 2 when Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest while making a tackle with 5:58 remaining in the first quarter and the Bengals were leading 7-3. Hamlin was taken to a nearby hospital by ambulance and the game was canceled.
Hamlin was discharged on Jan. 11 to continue his rehabilitation at home.
The Bills lead the NFL all-time series 17-15.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bengals-Bills game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).
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Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Buffalo Bills (14-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Point spread: Bills -5 (Bills favored to win by more than 5 points, otherwise Bengals cover)
Moneyline: Bills -278 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Bengals +205 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $30.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
I’m very glad we got this matchup, although I do have sympathy for Bengals fans who believe this game should be at a neutral site.
I was very high on the Bengals heading into the postseason and believed they were the best team in the AFC. One game should not change that; however, I am wavering a bit after their showing against the Ravens.
The Bengals lost another offensive lineman and are now down three starting big boys on their line. I’ve never seen an offense able to function as well without a good offensive line quite like the Bengals. However, this Bills defense will thrive off getting pressure on Joe Burrow. Their pass rush isn’t as good without Von Miller, who was signed specifically for these games, but it’s good enough to get after Burrow. When Cincy’s Jonah Williams went out Sunday night, Baltimore’s pass defense played much better. As a matter of fact, in the second half without Williams last week, the Bengals had four offensive drives, three punts and one score.
This week, Cincinnati faces a Bills defense that ranks ninth in passing DVOA and Pro Football Focus ranks their pass rush sixth in the NFL. I believe the Bengals will struggle to score points in Buffalo for all these reasons
The Bills offense is second in the NFL in scoring, and wagering against them to score might be a mistake. But the Bengals defense can shut down the Bills if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over at the rate he’s going. The Bills are 31st in turnovers, and in the last four games, Allen has thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball six times.
The Bengals defense is 12th in passing DVOA and seventh in passing coverage defense. The Bills offensive line is bottom third in the league in both run and pass blocking. Know that this is a break-glass offensive game for the Bills, which means more rushing attempts for Allen. More rushing attempts means a more controlled tempo and more of the clock running.
It’s also worth noting the weather for this game. Yes, it might snow, but impacting the game more than the snow will be the wind. Expect the wind to be whipping around the stadium.
I’m taking the Under in this game.
PICK: Under 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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