When Gold Cup futures odds first went up, the idea of a USA vs. Mexico final was quite appealing to bookmakers. With the U.S. men’s national team and El Tri on opposite sides of the bracket, that contest stood a good chance of happening.
Then the U.S. nearly blew up the potential marquee matchup, narrowly surviving a penalty-kick shootout Sunday night vs. Costa Rica.
But Team USA and Mexico are still on track, as both sides head to Wednesday’s semifinals.
And the bookmakers are grateful.
“A USA-Mexico Final would be great for soccer fans, and we’d expect to see lots of interest, should it happen,” said Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer trading for Caesars Sports. “Five out of the top six highest-handle events in the tournament so far involve either USA or Mexico.
“So we’d expect a USA-Mexico final to be huge.”
Ahead of the semifinals on FS1, Bickerdike helps dive into Gold Cup betting odds and action.
Perfect Result
The U.S. and Costa Rica were tied 2-2 after regulation. This year, the Gold Cup instituted a new rule: For a knockout match prior to the final, a draw won’t go to overtime, but rather directly to penalty kicks.
So Team USA and Cosa Rica engaged in a riveting session of penalties, with the U.S. winning 4-3 to advance. In three-way betting — wagering on which team wins in regulation, or if regulation time ends in a draw — that was the perfect result for Caesars Sports.
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The USMNT was hugely popular in three-way betting. Caesars was hoping to thread the needle of the USA advancing, but not in regulation time. And that’s what happened.
“Draws are always a book-friendly result. This game was certainly no different, as 85% of handle on the 90-minute market was for USA, with only 3.5% coming for the draw,” Bickerdike said. “Overall, the match was a very good result for the book and turned out to be the most profitable match of the tournament so far.
“The USA inching toward a marquee matchup [with Mexico] was certainly a result we were looking forward to seeing.”
USMNT beats Costa Rica in a penalty shootout — can the USA win the Gold Cup?
Semifinal Showdowns
To get that USA-Mexico matchup, though, there’s still the matter of Wednesday’s semifinals. The U.S. meets Guatemala at 7 p.m. ET in St. Louis, followed by Mexico vs. Honduras at 10 p.m. ET in Santa Clara, Calif.
The U.S. is a healthy -360 favorite in three-way betting, with Guatemala a +900 underdog and draw +425.
“Early action in the 90-minute market is fairly well split. Sixty-eight percent of money has been for USA to get the job done in 90 minutes,” Bickerdike said. “However, interestingly, 40% of wagers have been for Guatemala to win at +900, making them the best potential result for bettors.”
Indeed, there’s some appeal to wagering $100 to win $900 by betting on the big underdog. In the second semifinal, Honduras is an even bigger ‘dog at +1000, with Mexico -320 and draw +360.
“Similar to the USA-Guatemala game, the big-priced outsider Honduras is currently appealing to our customers for straight bets, with 51% of wagers going the way of the Hondurans,” Bickerdike said. “However, there is plenty of time for this to change as we get nearer to kickoff, where we expect to see a flurry of interest for Mexico.”
Looking Ahead
As noted above, Bickerdike and the Caesars risk room want to see the Gold Cup’s two most popular teams square off in Sunday night’s final in Houston.
“Currently, Mexico is the only losing selection remaining in the [championship futures] book,” Bickerdike said. “However, given customers are favoring Honduras in the semifinal, a USA-Mexico final is preferred.”
Furthermore, Caesars would love to see a USA-Mexico match settled on penalty kicks. For that to happen in the final, though, the match would first have to get through a 30-minute overtime.
“The U.S. ultimately getting the job done, preferably on penalties, would be the most favorable for the book.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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