On June 25, the Blue Jays were 3.5 games back in the American League East. Eleven days later, they now take an eight-game winning streak and a three-game division lead into the final week before the break.
They’re the hottest team in baseball, but they’re not the best team in the league over the past month. That honor belongs to the Astros, who are 24-8 with a plus-57 run differential since the start of June. Their latest work this weekend in Los Angeles, pulverizing the Dodgers by 23 runs over a three-game sweep, was especially eye-opening.
Was it enough for them to take the top spot in the power rankings?
Here are this week’s rankings, along with one stat to help explain every team’s first half.
Their defense has the most errors in MLB. Their pitchers have the worst ERA and fewest strikeouts in MLB. That’s the recipe for allowing the most runs in MLB.
Their offense has the lowest batting average and OPS in MLB.
Their pitching staff has the worst ERA in the American League. Sutter Health Park is doing no favors, but their pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 on the road, too.
Their bullpen has the worst ERA in MLB. The club’s struggles, despite employing young standouts James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams, have led to a changing of the guard at general manager and manager.
This might come as a shock, but a Pirates offense that just got shut out over the entire weekend in Seattle has the fewest home runs in MLB and the lowest OPS in the National League.
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Credit to manager Clayton McCullough. The Marlins are a more competitive club than anyone would have thought, and a scrappy offense that’s tied for the fourth-highest batting average in the NL is a major reason why.
The litany of pitching injuries would have probably doomed them anyway, but their offense ranks 22nd in OPS. That’s a lot harder to explain.
They’ve lost 10 straight and have the lowest expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate in MLB.
A sweep of the Braves might have them believing again, but their pitchers have surrendered a .269 batting average this year. That’s the highest mark of any AL squad.
There are only three batters in the lineup hitting above league average (Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino). It’s hard to sustain success when that’s the bleak offensive reality.
The Twins offense ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB in hits, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS and walks.
Their hitters have the most strikeouts in MLB…and the second-most home runs in the AL The do-or-die nature of the offense has the club hovering close to .500.
Their starters (4.50) and relievers (5.06) both rank in the NL’s bottom five in ERA.
They have the best starters’ ERA, but their offense — a group many expected to bounce back — has the fourth-lowest OPS in MLB.
The offense is starting to wake up, but their defense still has the most errors in the AL.
Their offense has the sixth-highest OPS in the National League. Their starters have the sixth-best ERA in the NL The result is a club that’s slightly above .500.
By outs above average, they have the best defense in MLB. That defense has also committed the third-fewest errors in MLB. Unfortunately, the offense has been held scoreless in four of the last six games.
Their bullpen has, by far, the lowest ERA of any relief group in MLB. It takes a lot for a non-closing reliever to make the All-Star team, and it’s a well-deserved nod for Randy Rodriguez.
They were 25th in slugging last year. This year, they’re 11th. It helps having the top home run hitter in MLB in Cal Raleigh.
The Padres have a National League-best 2.96 ERA at home but a 4.32 mark on the road. That’s reflected in the team’s record (27-15 at home, 21-26 on the road).
Their opportunistic offense has the most stolen bases in MLB and the highest OPS with runners in scoring position in the AL. Their pitching, though, has struggled of late, and they’ve now dropped three straight series since sweeping the Royals.
Sticking with AL East squads trending the wrong direction, the Yankees have now lost seven of their last nine games despite an offense that leads the AL in home runs and paces MLB in barrel rate.
They may lack star power, but they have an abundance of solid players. The Brewers don’t have a single qualified hitter who ranks in the top 50 in MLB in wRC+, but they have seven hitters (min. 200 plate appearances) who are above league average.
Despite dealing with a litany of pitching injuries, the Mets have the second-lowest ERA in the NL
They’re now riding a W8 after sweeping the Yankees and Angels in a perfect homestand. The Jays have the highest home OPS in the AL, which helps explain their 32-16 record at Rogers Centre.
How dynamic is this offense? The Cubs rank in the top three in MLB in home runs, slugging, OPS and steals.
Their starting pitchers lead MLB in strikeouts and have combined for the lowest ERA in the NL Zack Wheeler (2.17 ERA) is basically unhittable right now, but Cristopher Sánchez (2.68) and Ranger Suárez (1.99) give opponents no space to exhale.
It wasn’t just that they got swept by the Astros; it’s that they got throttled, smothered and obliterated badly enough that it had to knock them down a couple rungs. This is still the top team and offense in the National League — the Dodgers lead the NL in every slash line category — but life will be tougher now with Max Muncy sidelined and a plethora of contributors banged up.
Apart from employing the most talented pitcher in the sport, it’s hard to say the Tigers are the best team in any one area. But they’re above average basically everywhere. Among AL teams, the pitching staff ranks second in ERA and the offense ranks third in OPS.
Since dropping two of three to the Rays from May 19-21, the Astros are 30-11 and haven’t lost a series. They have the most wins and the best winning percentage against teams over .500 in MLB and are 18-8 in one-run games, a testament to the strength of the back end of their bullpen. That they’re doing all this without Yordan Alvarez is all the more miraculous.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
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