College Football Playoff championship odds might not be front-and-center in your mind yet, but it’s time they should be.
The regular season begins one month from now. And the market is starting to percolate.
Big Ten teams represent a key component of that market, starting with defending national champion Ohio State, which Caesars Sports has as the co-favorite with Texas.
The Buckeyes, while popular, aren’t seeing significant residual betting effects of that title run.
“There’s not an astronomical amount of action on Ohio State,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There’s a little bit more on Texas, a little more buzz on the Longhorns.”
Feazel helps dive into how bettors are playing Big Ten teams in CFP futures odds.
Can Arch Manning lead the Longhorns to a CFP title? Texas is +500 in Caesars’ national championship odds, matching Ohio State as the favorite.
Lots of Shoes to Fill
The biggest issue for Ohio State? Making up for a hefty loss of star power from the 2024-25 championship team.
“You’ve got a quarterback change, and they lost a lot of talent to the NFL Draft,” Feazel said.
Indeed, 14 Buckeyes were drafted, including four in the first round: wideout Emeka Embuka (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), offensive guard Donovan Jackson (Minnesota Vikings), defensive tackle Tyleik Williams (Detroit Lions) and offensive tackle Josh Simmons (Kansas City Chiefs).
Seven Ohio State players went in the first two rounds. Quarterback Will Howard was taken in the sixth round by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It’s a three-way battle to become the Buckeyes’ next starting QB, between sophomore Julian Sayin, junior Lincoln Kienholz and true freshman Tavien St. Clair.
Even without clarity at QB, Ohio State is +500 in Caesars’ CFP championship odds, matching Texas as the favorite.
“Certainly, Ohio State will be good. But that Playoff run last year was some of the best football we’ve seen in a while,” Feazel said, alluding to the Buckeyes posting four double-digit wins, including a 34-23 victory over Notre Dame in the title game.
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“With the 12-team playoff in Year 2, are they gonna be able to have the same run?”
We’ll find out a lot right away. On Aug. 30, in the first FOX Big Noon Kickoff of the season, Ohio State hosts Texas.
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Is Penn State Great?
Penn State reached the Big Ten title game last year, the beneficiary of Ohio State’s upset loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale. The Nittany Lions then lost to Oregon 45-37, but still got a bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Penn State took out SMU in the first round and Boise State in the quarterfinals, but fell to Notre Dame 27-24 in the semifinals.
This season, bettors are intrigued by the Nittany Lions, who opened +900 and are now the +700 fourth choice. Only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia (+675) are ahead of Penn State in CFP futures odds.
“Penn State has certainly taken some money, a lot of early action,” Feazel said. “It goes with the Nittany Lions’ schedule. They have one tough road game, at Ohio State. They’re gonna host Oregon.
“But outside of that, they’ve got a simpler schedule. They’re expected to be in contention for the Big Ten title game, so that puts them in contention to be a higher seed in the College Football Playoff.”
That said, Penn State action has slowed of late.
“The last couple weeks, people are not seeing as much value there, at +700,” Feazel said.
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Dodging the Ducks
Right behind Penn State at No. 5 in Caesars’ College Football Playoff odds is Oregon, at +850. As noted above, the Ducks are the reigning Big Ten champs.
That got Oregon a bye into the CFP quarterfinals, where it lost to Ohio State 41-21.
Although the Ducks rate well with bookmakers, bettors aren’t that intrigued so far.
“Oregon is the opposite of Penn State. There’s not much action at all, and Oregon is one of our best-case scenarios to win the national title,” Feazel said. “It’s another team with a pretty simple schedule. The Ducks’ toughest game is gonna be at Penn State.”
Like Ohio State, Oregon has a new QB. Dante Moore transferred from UCLA and is expected to fill the void left by Dillon Gabriel, who was drafted by the Cleveland Browns.
“There hasn’t been a lot of love on Oregon. But that’s a team that’s still high in our power rankings,” Feazel said.
Michigan and More
Michigan won the national title two seasons ago, then had a letdown 8-5 season last year. But the Wolverines notched a stunning 13-10 upset as 19.5-point road underdogs to Ohio State in the regular-season finale.
Caesars has Michigan as the +2200 10th choice in College Football Playoff odds.
“Michigan is still a solid defensive team, a solid running team. We expect the Wolverines to step forward this year,” Feazel said. “They’ve got a new QB, Bryce Underwood, with a lot of hype around him. He’s a young QB, and especially that young, you’re not sure what you’ll get out of him.”
Underwood turns 18 on Aug. 19.
“It’s not as simple of a schedule. Michigan is at Oklahoma in Week 2, and is going to USC and Nebraska,” Feazel said. “Their odds haven’t really moved much. There’s not really much interest yet.”
Feazel noted two other Big Ten outfits in the CFP championship odds market: Indiana, coming off a surprising 11-1 regular season, before losing to Notre Dame in the first round of the 2024 CFP; and USC, which was a disappointing 7-6 last year but looks to rebound this season.
“There’s a lot of interest in USC thus far, but there’s not too much love on Indiana,” Feazel said.
Both are longer shots at the moment, with the Trojans +7000 and the Hoosiers +10000 (100/1).
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Big Ten Bets
Caesars Sports has seen a few notable wagers so far on Big Ten teams winning the national championship. The largest bet is on a team deemed a legit threat: Penn State, which in February took a $5,000 play at +900.
If the Nittany Lions win it all, then the bettor profits $45,000 (total payout $50,000).
In March, there was a $1,000 bet on USC +7000. So if USC surprises many this season, then that customer pockets a healthy $70,000 profit (total payout $71,000).
Caesars took a modest $500 bet this month on Indiana +10000, which would equate to a $50,000 win if the Hoosiers take the title.
An even more modest wager landed on long-shot Illinois: $300 at +19000. It’s hard to imagine Illinois making a championship run, but if that happens, then the bettor pockets $57,000 in profit.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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