The NFL Defensive Player of the Year is a simple handicap: He’s either the best pass rusher in the league or the top cornerback.
With that, most of the names that have won this award are defenders we know well.
Last season, Patrick Surtain won as a younger star, but before him, it was Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, a Watt brother, Aaron Donald (three times) and Stephon Gilmore.
We’ve seen Ray Lewis, J.J. Watt and Donald as repeat winners this century, so let’s keep that in mind as we preview my favorite wagers for this award.
Will the Micah Parsons saga in Dallas continue into the regular season?
Entering his fifth NFL season, Parsons has recorded double-digit sacks in all four of his professional campaigns. He had 13 in his first year, followed by 13.5, then 14 in 2023 and down to 12 in just 13 games last season.
If Parsons stays healthy for the entire season, he’s going to get above 15 sacks.
Game style is important to note when trying to preview a defender’s success rushing the passer. The Cowboys were bad last season, leading to opponents passing the football less often at the end of games. I expect the Cowboys to be better offensively this season and provide their defense with an opportunity to close out games playing from ahead. That will give Parsons more chances to rush the passer under ideal conditions. When it’s a must-pass situation, the offensive line is tired from having to pass protect over and over.
Lastly, it’s worth considering that this is a contract year for Parsons. For obvious reasons, players tend to over-perform in contract years.
PICK: Micah Parsons (+750) to win DPOY
It does feel a tad early in his career to win this award, but Anderson is ascending and worth a play at 13/1.
The Texans pass rusher is improving right on pace. In his first season in Houston, he recorded seven sacks in 15 games. Last season, he started 14 of the Texans’ 17 games and finished with 11 sacks. He also added 3.5 sacks in two playoff games, just to highlight his strong play to finish his sophomore season.
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If we assume a healthy Anderson plays more games this season, and we also assume a continued upward trend in sacks, then Anderson will likely push north of 15 sacks for the season. He had a 22% pass rush win rate, ranking seventh among defenders, and he forced pressure on over 20% of pass rush snaps as well.
He’s a fantastic player primed for a breakout season in 2025.
PICK: Will Anderson Jr. (+1300) to win DPOY
Danny Parkins’ top 10 teams in the NFL entering the 2025-26 Season
For my long shot wager, I’m going with Mitchell.
He was fantastic as a rookie in Philadelphia, not allowing a single touchdown in coverage and permitting only 0.5 yards per coverage snap, which was good for second at his position. Mitchell also forced 16 incompletions, finishing third in the league.
He plays for a highly visible team that will face plenty of teams trying to throw the ball at them. I like my chances here at this price.
Quinyon Mitchell (+5000) to win DPOY
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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