AFC Championship Game odds: How to bet Bengals-Chiefs

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) will play at the Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) in the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive season on Sunday.

The Bengals beat the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime in last season’s AFC title game to advance to Super Bowl LVI.

All eyes will be on the ankle of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The 2018 NFL MVP suffered a high-ankle sprain and sat out part of the second quarter but returned to finish the divisional-round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Cincinnati leads the all-time series 19-14, winning the past three matchups. The Bengals won 27-24 at home in the most recent matchup on Dec. 4.

Cincinnati is in search of its first Super Bowl title. In addition to losing Super Bowl LVI, the Bengals lost Super Bowls XVI and XXIII, both to the San Francisco 49ers.

Kansas City is seeking its third Super Bowl title. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season and Super Bowl IV after the 1969 season to go along with AFL championships after the 1962, 1966 and 1969 seasons. Kansas City lost Super Bowl LV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the 2020 season.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bengals-Chiefs game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Patrick Mahomes ankle injury update

Dr. Matt Provencher updated Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury he suffered in Kansas City’s game against Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-3), 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Point spread: Bengals -1 (Bengals favored to win by more than 1 point, otherwise Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Bengals -118 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.47 total); Chiefs -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 47.5 points scored by both teams combined

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN

Kansas City Chiefs

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

If you came to find a Chiefs homer discussing this game, well, you’ve come to the right place. Everyone is going to pick the Bengals, and for good reason. They’ve beaten the Chiefs three straight times in close games where Kansas City was leading by at least seven points and had a 75% fourth-quarter win expectancy.

The Bengals have continued to beat the Chiefs because they do not make mistakes. There is a quality to being a team that doesn’t beat itself. Of course the big question on everyone’s minds is if the Chiefs can’t beat the Bengals with a healthy Patrick Mahomes, why would they beat them now?

I understand the skepticism. Mahomes will play with a high ankle sprain, and we do not know how much he will be hobbled. If we play “Internet Dr.” and study the scarce amount of practice videos of Mahomes from this week, he seems fairly “healthy” moving around. I believe, and maybe this is with my red and yellow glasses on, that we see an Andy Reid masterpiece in this game. The Chiefs have been preparing for this game for 365 days now. They failed in this contest in historic fashion with a second-half collapse last season. This is their time to shine, and they’ve been waiting for this moment for a year. It has been the team’s motivation all season.

Kansas City played a bend-but-don’t-break defense in the first matchup against Cincy this season. The defense did not allow explosive plays, but otherwise, it was not productive. The Chiefs didn’t tackle well, they didn’t stop the run, rush the passer or disrupt the Bengals pass game in any way. They can’t play any worse on Sunday. They’ve played better pass defense with rookies Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson getting more reps in the secondary. We know about Chris Jones and his ability. If the Bengals roll into the game with three backup offensive linemen, Kansas City’s defensive line needs to do work.

None of this will be easy. Cincy has K.C.’s number for a reason. But with the team knowing they need everyone’s best with Mahomes less than 100%, I think the Chiefs take this home.

Remember, Cincinnati has not beaten Kansas City in blowout wins. I have the Chiefs winning a close one.

PICK: Chiefs (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 point

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