Underdogs are everyone’s favorites.
With both the college football and NFL seasons underway, each week we’re going to take a look at which underdogs I like most before the pigskin begins.
Let’s check out my picks from Week 2 of the college football season and Week 1 of the NFL season.
The Border War Rivalry continues Saturday with the Missouri Tigers hosting the Kansas Jayhawks, as these teams meet for the first time since 2012, when Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC.
Kansas is 2-0 so far and has taken care of business against Fresno State and Wagner, winning those games by a combined score of 77-14. Missouri dismantled Central Arkansas 61-6 in their lone game of the season, marking their first with new quarterback Bo Pribula.
Pribula, the Penn State transfer, was impressive in his first start, but I still give Kansas a decided edge at quarterback in this rivalry game. KU QB Jalon Daniels is not only experienced, but dynamic. Daniels does a little bit of everything, with over 1,000 career yards and 19 touchdowns as a rusher. He has also thrown for over 7,000 career yards and was fourth in the country last year in yards per completion. This season, Daniels has seven touchdowns to just one interception so far, leading a Kansas team that I think came into this season underrated, after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
A closer look at Kansas’s season in 2024 shows that it wasn’t as bad as its 5-7 record indicates. A 3-point loss to UNLV, a 2-point loss to Kansas State, a 6-point loss to Illinois, and a pair of 4-point losses to West Virginia and Arizona State all add up to Kansas having a season plagued by narrow defeats.
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Kansas comes into this matchup playing well. With its outstanding quarterback, it has enough talent to not only keep this game close but also pull off the upset.
PICK: Kansas (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders were the Cinderella story of the 2024 NFL season, improbably winning 12 games and reaching the NFC title game. However, the Commanders really feasted on some subpar opposing quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Cooper Rush, Trey Lance, Andy Dalton and two games against Daniel Jones are just some of the quarterbacks the Commanders faced last season, inflating their record to be better than perhaps it would have been against some better competition.
Washington had a dream season in 2024, whereas the Giants faced a year that earned them the second pick in the NFL Draft. Despite the gap in success, however, the Commanders’ two wins against the Giants last year came by a combined eight points — a 3-point win and a 5-point win — and in those two games, the Giants were minus-two in turnover differential.
Division games are typically close, especially in Week 1. Look for this game to go down to the wire, and don’t be shocked if the Giants start the season 1-0.
PICK: Giants (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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